{"id":9842,"date":"2018-08-10T17:03:37","date_gmt":"2018-08-10T17:03:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/2018\/08\/10\/it-was-not-an-abberation\/"},"modified":"2018-08-10T17:03:37","modified_gmt":"2018-08-10T17:03:37","slug":"it-was-not-an-abberation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/2018\/08\/10\/it-was-not-an-abberation\/","title":{"rendered":"It Was Not An Abberation"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!-- Original Post Content --><br \/>\nSUBJECT: Targeting or Sniping during a 63 rolls, 13 points, 5 pts to the fire<\/p>\n<p>\tBACKGROUND: Don Wood (Hard Nine) &amp; I have been throwing together for several years after first meeting at a casino near Chicago. We both have our own tables and practice together quite often. Individual solo practices are usually 45-60 minutes in the evenings, 5-6 days a week. Throwing that much can get redundant, so we spice it up with simulated betting.<\/p>\n<p>\tStatistical Advantage: Early on after taking two GTC classes while solo practicing the thought surfaced \u2013 \u201cif the toss (arm swing, velocity, rotation, angle, target) is the same each time one should expect repeated results. To further the thesis \u2013 \u201cwith repeated results your statistical advantage should increase\u201d. Therefore why not bet into it.<\/p>\n<p>\tSo I decided to test the theory. Using hard way sets (2&#215;2, 3&#215;3, 4&#215;4, 5&#215;5) I would throw and track the results .Throwing 36 times each set and compare number frequency against the standard distribution curve. Throwing one 36 set is too small a sample size, so I threw 3 sets of 36 for each hard way set. The results paralleled each hard way set combination. For the: (6\u2019s to left, 1\u2019s to right)<br \/>\n\t2&#215;2 &#8211; more 4\u2019s and 5\u2019s occurred.<br \/>\n\t3&#215;3 &#8211; more 8\u2019s occurred<br \/>\n\t4&#215;4 &#8211; more 6\u2019s occurred<br \/>\n\t5&#215;5 &#8211; more 9\u2019s &amp; 10\u2019s occurred<\/p>\n<p>\tAs I said early on that was the outcome. Since then and one more GTC class (Advanced) my shot has evolved. So I decided to retest the theory. Three sets (108 throws) of 2&#215;2, 3&#215;3, 4&#215;4, 5&#215;5 were tracked. SAME RESULTS. Armed with this ability I was confident there is an additional statistical advantage to my game. <\/p>\n<p>\tEXAMPLE: During a recent outing in a 63 roll hand this targeting or sniping for numbers was evident. When three different points were made the remaining numbers were targeted to achieve the fire bet. The fourth was made quickly, then the fifth. Just the 10 remained. A total of 13 points were made during this roll. Having gotten a hole in one at golf, I\u2019m still shooting for my first 6 point fire.<\/p>\n<p>\tPlease don\u2019t take this as SCOOTER GOSPEL. Ask a fellow GTC-er (Hard Nine) that has witnessed this in several venues (Atlantic City, Chicago\/Indiana, Council Bluffs, Michigan). Take note as one of my GTC instructors reminded me \u2013 not all tables have the same action (felt or micro fiber, thickness, grain,, 12 or 14 foot). But if you know your shot you should be able to adjust accordingly.<\/p>\n<p>\tADVICE: Practice-practice-practice. Good habits only. Have a buddy view your mechanics. Get to know your shot. Bet into it when you have an statistical advantage<\/p>\n<p>\tSpecial thanks to my best throwing buddy (Hard Nine). He has helped me with my grip from time to time, thus keeping me from practicing bad habits. He has been rewarded by being present for numerous successful outings.<\/p>\n<p>\tCOMMENTS &#8211; please left me your thoughts on targeting or sniping.<\/p>\n<p>\tThanks &#8211; Scooter<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3>Replies:<\/h3>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> HardNine on August 10, 2018, 7:04 pm<\/p>\n<div>First of all, you need to understand that at times, Scooter can be quite full of sh**.  <\/p>\n<p>\tSecond of all, that doesn&#8217;t apply here!  I&#8217;ve seen it in practice and I&#8217;ve seen it in live play.  Our recent outings to Laughlin and then our home court where he threw very nicely, brought out Scooter&#8217;s (to me) proven ability to target numbers.  I&#8217;ve really only seen this in live play by 2 people, Scooter being one.  Not that he can call out numbers, but it&#8217;s more about the consistency in the number of rotations that leads to repeatable results.  I&#8217;ve only noticed that a few times in all of my own sessions and can&#8217;t repeat it myself&#8230;.. yet, but it&#8217;s more often that not when Scooter is shooting.  Through practicing together, usually when I&#8217;m working from home and can afford a lunch time practice session, we&#8217;ve discussed our strategies, and I know what to expect when he&#8217;s either set a certain point, or has a lot of $$$ on one.  I specifically look at his set to confirm my betting.  If he&#8217;s set a 9 or 10, I bump my bets up on those two and confirm he&#8217;s setting for them.<\/p>\n<p>\tSo first, and I&#8217;ve discussed with him, you notice that his 4\/10 and 6\/8 sets are inverted.  He sets 2&#8217;s\/5&#8217;s up for the 4\/10, but sets inverted for 6\/8.  At times, I&#8217;ll notice the results are inverted more, and at times, I&#8217;ll notice they&#8217;re straight up as set on top, but again, it&#8217;s the consistentcy of the rev&#8217;s on the dice that I bet into. Granted, it&#8217;s not every time, but I&#8217;ve come to know his shot and see it much more often than not.<\/p>\n<p>\tI really enjoy shooting with Scooter and it gives us a better chance at having a successful session if we&#8217;re both there.   Now, if I could only retire and play more!<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Dominator on August 11, 2018, 10:33 am<\/p>\n<div>This is a great opening post, and worthy of discussion. I want to congratulate you on your great 63 hand roll! <\/p>\n<p>\tTransposing a set to it a certain number <strong>IF<\/strong> your shot is consistent is something that can work <strong>BUT<\/strong> I have a lot of problems with it. Let me say first that I can&#8217;t remember the last time I did this after establishing a point. More on that later. Now my problems.<\/p>\n<p>\tIt takes at the minimum 5000 trials to gain any statistical analysis. 108 trials really doesn&#8217;t mean anything. So what happened in the trials doesn&#8217;t prove anything and shouldn&#8217;t be used. Remember that the object of this game is to avoid the 7 not making points. So that is my first problem.<\/p>\n<p>\tNext, I can&#8217;t even begin to tell you how many times and how much money I have lost when some of the people that I shoot with transposed the set they were using to make a certain number to hit the ATS or something and they threw a 7. F that! Throw numbers and keep holding the dice! Your mind goes away from just throwing the dice to somewhere else when you transpose. Don&#8217;t think when you are throwing, just throw and make a good shot.<\/p>\n<p>\tNow the fire bet &#8211; don&#8217;t even think about it till you are going for the 6th number and then maybe on the comeout roll set to hit that lone number. The same with the fire bet. <strong>ONLY<\/strong> do this on the comeout roll so if the 7 shows because you changed or transposed the set it will not hurt you.<\/p>\n<p>\tDom<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> MrPiP on August 23, 2018, 8:15 pm<\/p>\n<div>Scooter, <\/p>\n<p>\tYou are on to something.  Its probably because you are consistently single pitching on axis that gives you those predictions.  But I guess if you want to prove it you have to use 5000 for each hardway Set as recommended by Dom and report the distribution results.<\/p>\n<p>\tI also like the 36 roll practice session break-ups   <\/p>\n<p>\t-Mr PiP<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Skinny on August 23, 2018, 9:16 pm<\/p>\n<div>If you believe you are really good at hitting hardways, here is a wager you might want to consider instead of the fire bet.  With &quot;The Big Enchilada&quot; you will only use one set and stay with it.  Click on the following link:<\/p>\n<p>\t<a href=\"http:\/\/www.goldentouchcasino.net\/forum\/viewtopic.php?f=6&amp;t=114\">The Big Enchilada<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> HardNine on August 24, 2018, 11:32 am<\/p>\n<div>Skinny,<\/p>\n<p>\tI was all ready to argue something completely different, but I\u2019ve never read The Big Enchilada before.  I like it, even if I\u2019d only parlay half, but still something to think about.  Again, I\u2019d only do that on a few people, not even myself.  I\u2019m not there yet.<\/p>\n<p>\tScooter and I talk about our thought process quite often and he even presses me to target, but I refuse to change my set but instead target in my head.  But Scooter does indeed have success in targeting, so next practice session, maybe today, I\u2019ll set aside some $ and play with this.  <\/p>\n<p>\tI understand his thought process and it\u2019s rarely about the fire but on where he has more $ on the table.  I know that if his 10 is loaded up, he\u2019ll go for that and I\u2019ll bump mine up if need be.  <\/p>\n<p>\tI\u2019ll report back on the Enchilada.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Scooter on August 24, 2018, 8:27 pm<\/p>\n<div>Clarification is needed in what I was trying to convey in the last post.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tIN THEORY &#8211; if you use a hard way set (2&#215;2), throw it the same way every time (arm swing, velocity, landing area, rotation, \u2026) you should get the same results every time. Same goes for the 3&#215;3, 4&#215;5, 5&#215;5.<\/p>\n<p>\n\tThe previous comments suggested that the amount of sample size was insufficient to validate that theory. I agree that sample size is too small. But what was missed or not conveyed properly is that this theory and initial observations has been tested out over the last 5 years I&#8217;ve practiced on my own table (practicing 45 minutes a day, 5-6 days a week, for 5 years).<\/p>\n<p>\tThe second clarification is that the approach when coming to the table is not to pursue the FIRE BET. Avoid the seven and make money. Pursuing the fire bet is a not the main purpose. It is a side benefit. In the course of throwing you make three points. You need one more to reach the lowest level of the fire.If one is above average at targeting numbers the odds\/probabilities have been reduced. (Yes I also agree it is a high vig in the casino&#8217;s favor for a random shooter).<\/p>\n<p>\n\tLet me pose a example &#8211; you use the 5-count, you have your pass line and two come bets established. Doesn&#8217;t it make sense to target hitting those come bets instead of just throwing and hoping you hit the bets you have working?<\/p>\n<p>\tMost of us GTC-ers feel confident in our shot and bet into it. I&#8217;m confident of my ability to target numbers and bet into it having practiced for over 5 years.<\/p>\n<p>\tAgain apologies for not conveying sample size and approach to the table.<br \/>\n\tScooter<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Dominator on August 25, 2018, 12:21 pm<\/p>\n<div>Sorry but no it doesn&#8217;t make sense to target numbers. Everyone should throw dice with <strong><span style=\"color: #0000BF\">&quot;an empty mind&quot; <\/span><\/strong>&#8211; that is no thinking just do it. <\/p>\n<p>\tI can tell you this, our great instructors don&#8217;t target numbers, myself included. We just try to throw a perfect shot<\/p>\n<p>\tDom<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>SUBJECT: Targeting or Sniping during a 63 rolls, 13 points, 5 pts to the fire BACKGROUND: Don Wood (Hard Nine) &amp; I have been throwing together for several years after first meeting at a casino near Chicago. We both have&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":129,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9842","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-craps"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9842","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/129"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9842"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9842\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9842"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9842"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9842"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}