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Posted by:<\/strong> Skinny on May 11, 2018, 4:43 am<\/p>\nYou did not make any mistakes in your calculations. Your mistake is in your throw.<\/p>\n
\tWhile you have a reduced number of sevens from random, you have too many garbage numbers, much higher than random.<\/p>\n
\tRandom would expect 560 come out losers (2, 3 and 12’s) and 1120 winners (7 and 11’s) in 5040 throws. You threw 606 losers and 1064 winners. You have too many garbage numbers, much higher than random.<\/p>\n
\tRandom would expect to have 560 winners on the come out roll, you only had 458. <\/p>\n
\tThe only reason your HA is lower than the -1.41% for a random player is because you do have a reduced number of sevens. So while you are losing more money on the come out roll than a random roller due to the reduced sevens and higher 2, 3 and 12’s, you are winning more of your points because of the reduced number of sevens.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Posted by:<\/strong> Skinny on May 11, 2018, 4:55 am<\/p>\nIf you apply your 6.52 SRR to the random numbers for 5040 throws, you should come up with a positive HA of 1.7633%.<\/p>\n
\tIn other words, assume a random throw on the come out roll since you will have a 2-1 advantage with a random throw on the come out roll when you don’t throw a box number. Then set the dice and with an SRR of 6.52 you will win a higher proportion of your points than a random roller with an SRR of 6.0.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Posted by:<\/strong> MrPiP on May 11, 2018, 5:35 am<\/p>\n\n
"Skinny" wrote:<\/strong> If you apply your 6.52 SRR to the random numbers for 5040 throws, you should come up with a positive HA of 1.7633%.<\/p>\n\tIn other words, assume a random throw on the come out roll since you will have a 2-1 advantage with a random throw on the come out roll when you don’t throw a box number. Then set the dice and with an SRR of 6.52 you will win a higher proportion of your points than a random roller with an SRR of 6.0.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\n\tThanks Skinny, that suggestion was amazing: My calculation came out to as follows:
\n\tTrue Edge \t
\n\tProbability of establishing a Point and winning\t28.50%
\n\tOverall Probability of winning\t50.94%
\n\tProbability of Losing\t49.06%
\n\tPlayers Edge\t1.89%<\/p>\n
\tNext I have to calculate the impact of placing odds.
\n\tThis was a great exercise to see what the throw is like from a math point of view. That should throw off the casino crew by doing a CFER throw on the come out. lol <\/p>\n
\tBTW I think the garbage numbers are in the process of being aged out as the last 3600 throws showed a positive True Player’s Edge. You can’t see it but I have a drop down that allows me to choose the last 36,320,720,3600,5040 and 7200 throws. This gives me a sense of a point and time of when the throw was bad or needs adjustment because I picked up a bad habit.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Posted by:<\/strong> Dominator on May 11, 2018, 10:16 am<\/p>\nGreat work Skinny!<\/p>\n
\tNice job Mr Pip<\/p>\n
\tWay above my pay grade:)))<\/p>\n
\tDom<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Posted by:<\/strong> Nightrider on May 16, 2018, 11:07 am<\/p>\n\n
"Dominator" wrote:<\/strong> Great work Skinny!<\/p>\n\tNice job Mr Pip<\/p>\n
\tWay above my pay grade:)))<\/p>\n
\tDom<\/p><\/blockquote>\n
\tright on dom me too<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
This is prob for Skinny, So I gave myself homework from the last advance class. I was working on enhancing my throwing dashboard by adding Player’s Edge , by plugging in my actual distribution from my throw log. I researched…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":197,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9802","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-craps"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9802","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/197"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9802"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9802\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9802"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9802"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9802"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}