\nIf you are a Controlled Shooter, you are attempting to become an Advantage Player(AP) and no longer be a gambler. You practice for hours every week to perfect your shot and become consistent. After a while you achieve some consistency and decide to take your game to the casino.<\/p>\n
\tAt that point you must be selective about the tables you play and the conditions surrounding that table. So now you have found a table where you want to play a session. You buy in and watch other players throw the dice. While waiting for the dice to come to you, you start making bets on others. Those bets that you make are Fire Bets, or All Tall Small(ATS). And you also decide make some place bets, let’s say $44 inside or $40 outside. <\/p>\n
\tThen the dice come to you. You now make your Fire Bet, or your ATS, and a Pass Line bet with no odds. After you set your point, you place $220 inside and regress to $44 inside after one or two hits. Oh, and you bet the Hardways for $5 each and keep them up for the entirety of your hand. Don\u2019t forget see a horn, bet a horn. And you hop your point every roll.<\/p>\n
\tMy question is this. Are you truly an AP, or are you a gambler? Answer – YOU ARE A GAMBLER!<\/p>\n
\tAP\u2019s play a game that they can beat and put the money out when the advantage is theirs.<\/strong><\/p>\n \tI don’t care how good of a Controlled Toss that you have, you can’t beat high house edge bets. Much less, beat these bets when a random roller is throwing.<\/p>\n \tLet’s look at the house edges you are bucking with the bets that I described.<\/p>\n \n\tYou can’t beat those house edges if you bet them consistently on yourself, much less on someone that does not have a practiced shot. <\/p>\n \tWhat kind of advantage do you have with your SRR? Here are your edges for various SRR’s.<\/p>\n \n\tSo even with a huge 8.0 SRR, you can’t beat the Hardways, Any Craps, Hops, World, Fire, Horn, or ATS. With an SRR of 7, you can’t beat the 5 & 9 place bets. But you can beat the Pass Line with Odds, and the Come bet with Odds with a SRR as low as 6.5. So, if my SRR is 8, why would I want to give up 4% of my theoretical win by placing the 5 & 9 which have a 4% House Edge.<\/p>\n \tRegression plays are a bad idea. If you have an edge, why would you reduce your bet size without some change in playing conditions? Blackjack AP’s would never reduce their bet size when the "count" goes up. If I am throwing well, the "count" is always up. So, regression plays do not make any sense.<\/p>\n \tPlayer Edge for Pass Line\/Come Bets<\/strong><\/p>\n \n\tYou can see how much your edge improves when you maximize your odds. Why would you want to bet anything other than Pass Line and Come Bets?<\/p>\n \tI am an Advantage Player. I have a practiced shot that is very consistent. I only play in good conditions on a table surface that I have practiced for. I do not make bets with high house edges. I am a Pass Line and Come bet player exclusively. Since I have gone to this betting strategy, my wins and frequency of wins, have gone way up. Conversely, my frequency of losses, and the amount of those losses has been reduced dramatically.<\/p>\n \tSo take a look at your game and ask yourself this important question. Am I truly an Advantage Player?<\/strong><\/p>\n \tNFF<\/p>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Dr Crapology on January 21, 2018, 12:30 pm<\/p>\n \tRose and Doc<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Posted by:<\/strong> JawBones on January 21, 2018, 12:54 pm<\/p>\n \tJawbones<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Dominator on January 21, 2018, 1:59 pm<\/p>\n \tDom<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Posted by:<\/strong> SevenTimesSeven on January 21, 2018, 6:09 pm<\/p>\n \tAgreed. \tCould you elaborate on the statement that with an SRR of 8 (player edge 6.4%) \t7×7<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Posted by:<\/strong> NofieldFive on January 21, 2018, 11:51 pm<\/p>\n \tIf I place the 5 or 9, I am giving up 4% every time I win the bet versus making a Come Bet. That does not take into consideration what I am giving up from taking odds with that Come Bet.<\/p>\n \tWith an SRR of 8, my edge on the Come bet with 5X odds is 17%. My edge on the flat bet with no odds is 5.02%. So if I place the 5 or 9 for the same amount of money that I could invest in a Come Bet with Single Odds, I am indeed giving up much more than the 4% vig. Do the math, +11.38% return for a $10 Come Bet with $10 odds versus a $20 Place 5 or 9 which would return the sum of your 6.4% edge over the house less the 4% house edge the bet cheats you out of. The place bet will cost you 4% each and every time you "win" the bet. In essence, when you win, you lose. \tI am just trying to illustrate the superiority of Pass Line and Come Bets with Odds for any Controlled Shooter versus any other bet on the table. The math does not lie.<\/p>\n \tI hope that I answered your question.<\/p>\n \tNFF<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Preacher on January 22, 2018, 10:21 pm<\/p>\n \tI\u2019ve lost interest in the All Tall Small Bonus Bet and the Fire Bet. Now I just need to lose interest in the Repeater Bet, and I\u2019ll be home free. This week, I\u2019ll be staying in Las Vegas at a casino that has the repeater bet, so maybe I\u2019ll get tired of it, too. Here\u2019s hoping.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Dr Crapology on January 23, 2018, 12:39 pm<\/p>\n \tRose and Doc<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" If you are a Controlled Shooter, you are attempting to become an Advantage Player(AP) and no longer be a gambler. You practice for hours every week to perfect your shot and become consistent. After a while you achieve some consistency…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":22,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-craps"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9734","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/22"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9734"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9734\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9734"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9734"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9734"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}\n
\n Bet<\/strong><\/td>\n House Edge<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Fire Bet<\/td>\n 21.27%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n All Bet<\/td>\n 20.61%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Small\/Tall<\/td>\n 18.30%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Hops 2\/12\/Hardway<\/td>\n 13.89%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Hops, all others<\/td>\n 11.11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Hard 4\/10<\/td>\n 11.11%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Hard 6\/8<\/td>\n 9.09%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Place 4\/10<\/td>\n 6.67%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Place 5\/9<\/td>\n 4.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n Place 6\/8<\/td>\n 1.50%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n \n
\n SRR <\/strong><\/td>\n Player Edge <\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 6.0<\/td>\n 0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 6.5<\/td>\n .5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 7.0<\/td>\n 3.1%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 7.5<\/td>\n 4.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 8.0<\/td>\n 6.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n \n
\n SRR<\/strong><\/td>\n PL No Odds<\/strong><\/td>\n PL 1X Odds<\/strong><\/td>\n PL 2X Odds<\/strong><\/td>\n PL 3-4-5 Odds<\/strong><\/td>\n PL 5X Odds<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 6.0<\/td>\n -1.41%<\/td>\n -0.85%<\/td>\n -0.61%<\/td>\n -0.37%<\/td>\n -0.33%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 6.5<\/td>\n +.13%<\/td>\n +2.38%<\/td>\n +3.34%<\/td>\n +4.18%<\/td>\n +4.44%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 7.0<\/td>\n +1.75%<\/td>\n +5.51%<\/td>\n +7.09%<\/td>\n +8.46%<\/td>\n +8.33%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 7.5<\/td>\n +3.38%<\/td>\n +8.51%<\/td>\n +10.66%<\/td>\n +12.47%<\/td>\n +13.10%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n \n 8.0<\/td>\n +5.02%<\/td>\n +11.38%<\/td>\n +14.03%<\/td>\n +16.24%<\/td>\n +17.04%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/table>\n
\nReplies:<\/h3>\n
\n\tI like your post.
\n\tBut the third table, for Pass Line\/Come Bets for the different SRRs,
\n\tcould be placed immediately below the table with the House Edge
\n\tfor a Random player, for clarity?<\/p>\n
\n\tAn SRR of 8 (player edge 6.4%) WON’T beat hardways (9.09%) and higher HOUSE edges
\n\tsince 6.4% is appreciably LESS than 9.09%, a negative expectation.
\n\tAn SRR of 7 (player edge of 3.1%) WON’T beat the 5&9 place (4.0%) and higher HOUSE edges
\n\tsince 3.1% is appreciably LESS than 4.0%, a negative expectation.
\n\tAn SRR of 6.5 (player edge 0.5%) WILL beat pass line w\/odds (2.38%) and higher PLAYER edges
\n\tsince 0.5% ADDED(?) to 2.38% is an appreciably high edge, a POSITIVE expectation?<\/p>\n
\n\tplacing the 5&9 (4.0% house edge) would be giving up 4% of his win<\/u>?
\n\tIf the house edge were 0% wouldn’t this player (player edge 6.4%) have an advantage
\n\tof at least +11.38% (PL 1X odds)? How much of his win would he be giving up here?<\/p>\n
\n\tI would much rather have the +11.38% return on my investment than a 2.4% return.<\/p>\n