{"id":9726,"date":"2017-12-28T21:53:27","date_gmt":"2017-12-28T21:53:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/2017\/12\/28\/help-me-choose-which-srr-metric-i-should-use\/"},"modified":"2017-12-28T21:53:27","modified_gmt":"2017-12-28T21:53:27","slug":"help-me-choose-which-srr-metric-i-should-use","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/2017\/12\/28\/help-me-choose-which-srr-metric-i-should-use\/","title":{"rendered":"Help me choose which SRR metric I should use?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!-- Original Post Content --><br \/>\nHi, <\/p>\n<p>\tFirst Happy Holidays and New Year.   Since the advance class, I am developing strict rules on how I live play and practice.<br \/>\n\tLast 10 practice sessions, I would take out 36 chips and record each of them in my spreadsheet and put them on my layout then I can see the distribution as I line up the chips from 2 to 12, hoping not to see an Xmas tree, for that session I divide 36 by the number of SO. On the tech side,   I programmed my spreadsheet to calculate my SRR base on the last X number of throws.  So If I set it to 360 throws it would represent the last 10 practice session. <br \/>\n\tEach recorded throw is time-stamped so I can query against it in descending order and limit it my a certain number of throws. <\/p>\n<p>\tQuestion: Since I use a different betting strategy (all based on come betting) based on what my SRR is which should you use?<\/p>\n<p>\n\t1) Last 10   practice sessions 360 throws.<br \/>\n\t2) Last 20   practice sessions 620 throws.<br \/>\n\t3) Last 100 practice sessions 3600 throws.<br \/>\n\t4) Last 200 practice sessions 7200 throws. <\/p>\n<p>\tUpdate 12\/29\/12017: I added a dropdown list so I can choose the limit:<br \/>\n\tHere are the different results:<br \/>\n\tLast  36     rolls: 9.00 SRR <br \/>\n\tLast 360    rolls: 7.50 SRR<br \/>\n\tLast 720    rolls: 6.55 SRR<br \/>\n\tLast 3600  rolls: 6.32 SRR . (I only threw 2906)  <br \/>\n\tLast 7200  rolls: 6.32 SRR . (I only threw 2906) <\/p>\n<p>\tMy profile has a read only link to the googlesheet <\/p>\n<p>\n\tSRR: &lt; 6.23 Ultra Conservative Betting<br \/>\n\tSRR: 6.23 &#8211; 6.30 &#8211; Very Conservative Betting <br \/>\n\tSRR: 6.30 &#8211; 6.50 &#8211; Conservative Betting <br \/>\n\tSRR: 6.50 &#8211; 7.00 &#8211; Normal Betting <br \/>\n\tSRR: 7.00 &#8211; 7.50 &#8211; Slightly Aggressive  <br \/>\n\tSRR: 7.50 &#8211; 8.00 &#8211; Aggressive <br \/>\n\tSSR: &gt; 8.00 Ultra Aggressive <\/p>\n<p>\tYour input would greatly be appreciated. <\/p>\n<p>\tPS:  I owe you a summary of trip reports for 2016, where I took extensive notes on each session and analysed particular tables from table felt, hardness to dice conditions.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3>Replies:<\/h3>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> JawBones on December 28, 2017, 10:29 pm<\/p>\n<div>I would be interested to see how you change your betting from Ulta Conservative to Very Conservative to Conservative, etc all the way to Ultra Aggressive.  As to the SRR, as Dom says in class, you really need about 5000 throws to get an accurate SRR.  I am pretty sure you have way more than that but there can be fairly large swings in relative small sample sets so if it were me I would use the last 100 practice sets so you have a larger, more reliable data set.<\/p>\n<p>\tGood luck and keep us updated.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> NofieldFive on December 29, 2017, 10:26 pm<\/p>\n<div>I agree with Jawbones.  Anything can happen in the short run, so that would not be a reliable indicator.  I would think 3000 rolls minimum to get an idea of the trend.  But, 5000 is the benchmark for long term SSR calculation.<\/p>\n<p>\tI would also like to see the difference in betting strategies.<\/p>\n<p>\tNFF<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Finisher on December 30, 2017, 12:22 pm<\/p>\n<div>Do you always need session with a 7 . If not then the SRR is going to be off a little . I say this because it may be the big roll of your life and you did not see it . \ud83d\ude00  \ud83d\ude00 <br \/>\n\tI always end session with 7 if possible . Just add numbers at end and keep adding till you reach 5,000 or more .<br \/>\n\tGood Rolling. \ud83d\ude00  \ud83d\ude42<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> HardNine on December 30, 2017, 9:46 pm<\/p>\n<div>I&#8217;ve seen this here many times.  I get where 36 comes from, but you don&#8217;t need exactly 36 rolls to calculate a session.  It doesn&#8217;t give you any valid statistical analysis at all as there are not enough rolls in the sample as are stated above.  I shoot what I shoot, many times during the day, and shoot hands as if I&#8217;m in live play, unless I&#8217;m working on something specific, then get back to hands.  I record everything in Roll Recorder.  I create a shooter from each position on my table with dates.  I create a new shooter after taking a class so that it quickly gets into the thousands of rolls.  That&#8217;s where a valid SRR comes from.  It&#8217;s fun to look at a day&#8217;s play an go OOH, I HAVE A 12 SRR!, but it&#8217;s a blip on chart that makes up our true SRR.<\/p>\n<p>\tAs stated by others above, the variance you see in single hands (or 36 roll &#8216;sessions&#8217;) won&#8217;t tell you what to do.  Add to that the fact that you are changing the venue from your home to a casino and that it&#8217;s live play vs. practice, I wouldn&#8217;t walk in and be aggressive because I had an amazing session an hour ago on my home table.<\/p>\n<p>\tI do like your visual aid on the table though.  I used to put a white chip on every number hit, a red chip on every payday, and a green for a point made.  Was fun to see chips stack up on a given number.  The roll recorder gives you the data, but the live chart on the table is always fun.<\/p>\n<p>\tHappy New Year, all!!!<\/p>\n<p>\tDon<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Gambino on January 22, 2018, 3:44 am<\/p>\n<div>I like the spreadsheet that you use to record your rolls.  I&#8217;ve been thinking about creating something like that, but haven&#8217;t gotten around to it yet.  <\/p>\n<p>\tI was wondering if most people use a spreadsheet to record their rolls or if they have an app on their phone that works to record the rolls?  <\/p>\n<p>\tThanks<br \/>\n\tGambino<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> JawBones on January 22, 2018, 1:09 pm<\/p>\n<div>Gambino I record the rolls manually in a log book and then when I have a few minutes, I enter them all in Smart Craps roll recorder program.  As Hard Nine says, Roll Recorder will do all the analysis for you.<\/p>\n<p>\tI&#8217;m sure it would be easier to have a laptop near by and record them only once but I am quite used to doing it the way I have been for so long.  I also like to write a note or two as needed if I have an epiphany, see a problem, etc.<\/p>\n<p>\tHope this helps.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Dominator on January 23, 2018, 1:45 pm<\/p>\n<div>I don&#8217;t like the idea of changing betting strategies at all. If you are playing with an edge that is calculated by your SRR over 5000 rolls as NF5 said then bet the same way. If you throw is off, that is the short run and variance, stop playing.<\/p>\n<p>\tWhen you lower your betting strategy and continue to play &#8211; well IMHO, you are still a gambler that cant stop playing<\/p>\n<p>\tDom<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Dr Crapology on January 24, 2018, 12:49 pm<\/p>\n<div>Dom, well said.<\/p>\n<p>\tRose and Doc<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> MrPiP on January 26, 2018, 6:55 pm<\/p>\n<div>Dom,<\/p>\n<p>\tI almost agree with you except the following.  <\/p>\n<p>\tThe change in the betting strategy is the amount at risk (The spread)  but not the way I am betting it is based on come betting with odds (Which is what is taught in the class), I have controls in place to sense the skill when the dice is feeling good the strategy will attack the table and when I am off it will knock me out early and preserve my bankroll (50%).<\/p>\n<p>\tI don&#8217;t think I am a gambler  \ud83d\udc7f  since I simulate my strategy over 151 session trials at home and I started with a make believe 5K bankroll and I am up to 11K.  <\/p>\n<p>\tOne needs that live play action experience to get traction.   I am sure you can have a soldier train, train and train but what will make him a better soldier is <strong>live combat<\/strong>. <\/p>\n<p>\t-Mr Pip.<\/p>\n<fieldset class=\"gc-fieldset\">\n<legend> Attached files <\/legend>\n<p> <a href=\"https:\/\/crapsclub.goldentouchcraps.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/wpforo\/default_attachments\/32917=169-betting_strategy_simulation.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/crapsclub.goldentouchcraps.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/wpforo\/default_attachments\/32917=169-betting_strategy_simulation.png\" class=\"gc-images\" title=\"betting_strategy_simulation.png\" style=\"max-width:300px\" \/><\/a> <\/fieldset>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Dominator on January 28, 2018, 1:02 pm<\/p>\n<div>Absolutely that you need live combat just like solder. And BTW &#8211; going from 5K to 11K in practice is really great and I congratulate you!<\/p>\n<p>\tBut my point is this, If your throw is off when you are playing then risking less than your normal amount is still risking money when your edge is not showing up. So if you are playing anyway &#8230;.. well then the gambler in you has shown its ugly face<\/p>\n<p>\tDom<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Hi, First Happy Holidays and New Year. Since the advance class, I am developing strict rules on how I live play and practice. Last 10 practice sessions, I would take out 36 chips and record each of them in my&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":197,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-craps"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9726","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/197"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9726"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9726\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9726"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9726"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9726"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}