{"id":8453,"date":"2014-12-21T16:55:24","date_gmt":"2014-12-21T16:55:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/2014\/12\/21\/betting-contest\/"},"modified":"2014-12-21T16:55:24","modified_gmt":"2014-12-21T16:55:24","slug":"betting-contest","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/2014\/12\/21\/betting-contest\/","title":{"rendered":"Betting contest"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><!-- Original Post Content --><br \/>\n5Dimes is currently having a betting streak contest. Prizes are awarded for winning streaks of 5, 10, 15, and 25 game streaks. With a bit of luck, I have managed to get a 5 game streak currently. My best so far is 9.<\/p>\n<p>\tThe prize for 5 games is $50 free play, the prize for 10 games is $500 free play. The catch (there always is one, isn&#8217;t there?) is I must claim my prize. If I take the $50 my streak gets reset to zero. If I go for 10 games and lose, I still get reset to zero, but I also don&#8217;t get the $50. <\/p>\n<p>\tThis is the third time I have had a 5 game streak. I took the $50 once, and pressed and lost the second time. <\/p>\n<p>\tTo give some perpsective $500 would signifigantly increase my bankroll, $50 might cover a slow Saturday or Sunday of football.<\/p>\n<p>\tShould I take the $50 or go for the $500? I feel like I just hit on a Hard 6 and now have to decide whether to collect or parlay. It sure feels great to hit the parlay, but money in the rail is always nice.<\/p>\n<p>\tThanks for any input. I have 6 days to make a decision.<\/p>\n<hr>\n<h3>Replies:<\/h3>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> getagrip on December 21, 2014, 8:52 pm<\/p>\n<div>Hey Sevenout,<\/p>\n<p>\tI am sure you will get much better answers than this and maybe even from some math heads! Here are my thoughts though on reading your post. Hopefully, they may be useful to you in provoking more thinking and your final decision.<\/p>\n<p>\t(1) how often can you remember winning 10 or more games in a row? Are they some what frequent or hard to remember the last time you did that?<\/p>\n<p>\t(2) how possible is it to take the 5 game streak money and make a bet where you might be able to make that $50 bet money into a $500 bet or at least some amount that you would be happier with? <\/p>\n<p>\t(3) If you take money from a 5 game streak a couple of times does that make the lower amount more palatable to you?<\/p>\n<p>\tWhatever you decide, go with it and be happy with it no matter what the outcome!  \ud83d\ude42<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Skinny on December 21, 2014, 9:12 pm<\/p>\n<div>I can tell you the math but can not advise you on the decision.  That comes down to how you feel about it emotionally.<\/p>\n<p>\tAt this point, you currently have $50 with the potential of gaining an additional $450 for a total of $500.  If you had a 63% chance of winning each individual wager, you would have a 10% chance of winning 5 wagers in a row.  That is what you would need to make it a worthwhile attempt.<\/p>\n<p>\tDo you think you have a 63% or better chance of winning each of the individual wagers you will make?  Note I am not saying a 63% chance of winning 5 in a row.  You need to have 63% or better on each of the 5 individual wagers.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Finisher on December 22, 2014, 5:19 am<\/p>\n<div>Skinny If I won 5 in a row MY emotions would be so high that this little bird would think that he was an Eagle .The trip down on that 6th loss would be not good . So I think the 50.00 would be a great win for little OLD me .<br \/>\n\tI did make my first parlay bet last trip but it was for my SON . I did not really know what I was doing so had to go back to make bet after phone call . Got it right and my Son won both bets .One was a straight up win bet the other was a win and under , parlay . The parlay did pay better .They were 10.00 bets so not much action .Did get .20 on card which had never seen before as far as points go .<br \/>\n\tAlso saw sign that says if you bet 3,000.00 in day will get 4x points .Boy I am sure far from that way of betting .<br \/>\n\tIf you really have a 63% chance of picking the winner it is better then what we have playing craps . That may be another way of looking at it .But then I would not know what my % would be at picking one winner let alone 5 .<br \/>\n\tI am sure you will make the right decision. <br \/>\n\tGood Rolling. \ud83d\ude42  \ud83d\ude42<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Skinny on December 22, 2014, 6:05 am<\/p>\n<div>Finisher, I tend to agree.<\/p>\n<p>\tHere is another way of looking at what I said.  If you have a 63% chance of winning a single bet each and every time, then you have a 10% chance of winning 5 in a row.  That then makes it a worthwhile adventure because they are paying you 9 to 1 if you do so.<\/p>\n<p>\tBut realize this.  Even if you are fortunate enough to have a 63% chance of winning your bets, you only have a 1 in 10 chance of getting the $500.  You can expect to lose your $50, nine times out of ten.<\/p>\n<p>\tHaving said that let us look at this from a different point of view.  Don&#8217;t sports books pay more than 9 to 1 on a 5 time parlay?  Wouldn&#8217;t you be better off taking $50 and playing the same bets on a 5 time parlay with a sports book?  In fact you could even do it ten different times to see if you can hit it one time out of 10?  Would not that make you more money?<\/p>\n<p>\tOf course you might say you do not want to risk $50 of your own money on such a long shot once, let alone trying it up to ten times.  But now that you have hit five in a row and won $50, is not that $50 your money?  If go for ten in a row, wouldn&#8217;t you be risking your own $50 even though at the moment it is in the casinos coffers?  Except it is yours to cash in if you so choose.<\/p>\n<p>\tThen there is also the fact that you are only winning free play which is only worth about 1\/2 the value.  In effect you are risking around $25 for a chance to win about $250.<\/p>\n<p>\tI think the right play is to take the $50 free play and see what you can turn it into.  Pocket anything you make over $25.  If the $25 is not all that much to you then plan on taking $25 of your winnings from the free play and put it on a 5 time parlay with a sports book.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Finisher on December 23, 2014, 6:35 am<\/p>\n<div>I don&#8217;t know what a 5 play par lay pays but my son was happy with his 2 play par lay that he won .<br \/>\n\tRisk was 20.00 pay was 65.90 . That was on foot ball .<br \/>\n\tGood Rolling. \ud83d\ude42  \ud83d\ude42<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"migrated-reply\" style=\"border: 1px solid #eee;padding: 15px;margin-bottom: 15px;border-radius: 5px\">\n<p><strong>Posted by:<\/strong> Skinny on December 23, 2014, 7:48 am<\/p>\n<div>In most sports books a 5 team parlay pays 20 to 1.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>5Dimes is currently having a betting streak contest. Prizes are awarded for winning streaks of 5, 10, 15, and 25 game streaks. With a bit of luck, I have managed to get a 5 game streak currently. My best so&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":42,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8453","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-other-games"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8453","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/42"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8453"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8453\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8453"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8453"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8453"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}