\nWas in a casino in Northwest Louisiana the other day and had a rather interesting conversation with the pit crew. They were just opening the table—that can take a while. A conversation started and we talked and I mentioned that I had heard of a new craps bet called the "futures bet" or something like that. It seems that if you can roll the dice 4 times and make a separate bet of $5, you win even money. Since the 7 comes up one in 6 times it appears on the surface to be a good bet, especially for someone with a controlled throw. My general thought is that any additional bet at any table game is not as good as the original game itself—the extra bet may sound better but it usually is not. Don’t know about this one. What say you Skinny, my appointed expert on things invloving math.<\/p>\n
\tThe stickman, a self proclaimed craps expect who is going to give lessons to the novice to make him or her a better player, said that it is a terrible bet since one is 3 rolls will be a 7???? I said that the 7 will appear 1 out of 6 rolls as there are 6 ways to roll a 7 and 36 possible combinations. He then begin to speak with authority and very loudly that no, because as you continue to roll the 7 will come up more often 1 in 3. I started to say but each roll of the dice is an independent event but he would have nothing to do with it. I came back with "push me or my wife the dice and let’s play." I was tired of his rant.<\/p>\n
\tNone the less it was interesting if not rational thinking. By the way he gave the dice to Rose who had a short money maker using the "Big Skinny" followed by my very fine and skillful point seven out. Rose and I were the only ones at the table so she got the dice right back and she banged out a monster of 50–put her in the books Frank. As they say "the best man for the job may be a woman."<\/p>\n
\tSkinny, look forward to your response.<\/p>\n
\tDoc<\/p>\n
Posted by:<\/strong> ACPA on June 14, 2012, 9:32 pm<\/p>\n \tSorry I wasn’t there.<\/p>\n \tNoah<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Skinny on June 14, 2012, 10:18 pm<\/p>\n \tYou are correct in that there is a 1 in 6 chance of throwing a seven on any given roll. That means there is a 1\/6 probability of throwing a seven and a 5\/6 probability of not throwing a seven. In order to win this even money wager you have to avoid throwing a seven 4 rolls in a row.<\/p>\n \tThe probability of winning the wager by not throwing a seven 4 times in a row is (5\/6) X (5\/6) X (5\/6) X (5\/6) = 0.4823<\/p>\n \tThe probability of losing the wager is 1 – 0.4823 = 0.5177<\/p>\n \tThe difference between the probability of winning and losing is the house advantage.<\/p>\n \t0.4823 – 0.5177 = -0.0354<\/p>\n \tYour instincts were right, it is a bad wager with a -3.5% house advantage.<\/p>\n \tAs for the dealer who claims you will see a seven once every three rolls, he did not know what he was talking about. In three rolls a random roller will roll a seven 42% of the time. He will not roll a seven in three rolls 58% of the time.<\/p>\n \tOf course Alligator Rose did not seven out in 50 rolls \u2757 \u2757 Nice shooting Rose \ud83d\ude00<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Guest on June 14, 2012, 10:34 pm<\/p>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Guest on June 14, 2012, 10:36 pm<\/p>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Diceman on June 14, 2012, 10:51 pm<\/p>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Stickman on June 14, 2012, 11:44 pm<\/p>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Timmer on June 15, 2012, 12:02 am<\/p>\n \tSee you next week!<\/p>\n \t \ud83d\ude0e \ud83d\ude0e \ud83d\ude0e<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Posted by:<\/strong> brothelman on June 15, 2012, 2:34 am<\/p>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Pointman on June 15, 2012, 3:55 am<\/p>\n \tJust curious.<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Was in a casino in Northwest Louisiana the other day and had a rather interesting conversation with the pit crew. They were just opening the table—that can take a while. A conversation started and we talked and I mentioned that…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":26,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-812","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-craps"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/812","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/26"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=812"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/812\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=812"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=812"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=812"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}