\nSept. 4 (Bloomberg) \u2014 By day, David Frohardt-Lane puts his math skills to use as an algorithmic trader for 3Red Group in Chicago. Away from work, he uses them to cash in on the National Football League.<\/p>\n
\tFrohardt-Lane is seeking a repeat title in the Las Vegas Hotel SuperBook\u2019s SuperContest, a season-long NFL betting competition that drew about 1,200 entrants this season. The winner earns more than $600,000, and the total prize pool approaches $2 million. The tournament begins with the NFL opener tonight, when the Green Bay Packers visit the champion Seattle Seahawks.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cI enjoy my job quite a bit, but nothing compares to an unexpected breakaway touchdown just when you\u2019ve given up on a game,\u201d Frohardt-Lane said in a telephone interview. \u201cFor that rush, nothing compares to sports gambling.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tFormerly a baseball handicapper, 37-year-old Frohardt-Lane gave it up in 2003, hampered by U.S. gambling regulations and the time constraints of trying to focus on a career in finance. With the NFL schedule less taxing than Major League Baseball\u2019s, he\u2019s since built a statistical model that \u2014 along with a bit of luck \u2014 helped him win $557,850 in the SuperContest last season.<\/p>\n
\tSuperContest competitors, ranging from professional handicappers, known as \u201csharps,\u201d to amateurs, or \u201csquares,\u201d pay $1,500 to enter, making five picks against the point spread for each of the 17 NFL weeks. Gamblers are awarded points for correct selections, and the bettor with the most at the end of the season wins. Now in its 27th year, it will be its fourth straight with a record number of contestants. This year there is more than triple the number there were in 2010.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cThat is something we never thought would be possible just a couple years ago,\u201d said Jay Kornegay, vice president of race and sports operations at the LVH SuperBook.<\/p>\n
\tProxy Pickers<\/p>\n
\tWeekly picks may be made through a proxy, and the contest pays the top 30 finishers.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cIt\u2019s by far the biggest prize pool and it\u2019s renowned as the handicapping championship,\u201d said RJ Bell, founder of Las Vegas-based handicapping information website Pregame.com.<\/p>\n
\tWith wins worth one point and ties one-half point, Frohardt-Lane\u2019s winning entry went 55-26-4 \u2014 a 67.9 percent success rate \u2014 for 57 points. He followed his final play of the year while attending his brother-in-law\u2019s wedding, and won the title by a half-point when San Francisco kicker Phil Dawson\u2019s game-ending 40-yard field goal gave the 49ers a win over the Arizona Cardinals.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cI was refreshing my iPhone every 30 seconds for three hours,\u201d Frohardt-Lane said. \u201cEven as things were going my way, I was getting sicker and sicker all day long, imagining all these worst-case scenarios.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tPrevious Win<\/p>\n
\tThe victory wasn\u2019t Frohardt-Lane\u2019s first in an NFL contest. He won $75,000 in an event hosted by Cantor Gaming. He donated half of his SuperContest winnings to GiveWell, a non-profit that evaluates other charities.<\/p>\n
\tWith a master\u2019s degree in statistics from the University of Chicago, Frohardt-Lane has played in eight NFL contests in the past four years, posting a 58.5 win percentage. He says his model is good enough to pick 54 percent winners in the long run; not as strong as his baseball model or as complete as those used by some of his SuperContest rivals. For example, other NFL models, whose creators have more time to devote to them, are better at analyzing how good a team is entering a season, he said.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cFor a professional bettor, hitting 54 or 55 percent is excellent,\u201d Bell said.<\/p>\n
\tFor those who prefer to wager on who will win the Super Bowl in Glendale, Arizona, on Feb. 1, the Seahawks are favored at LVH, with 9-2 odds. The Denver Broncos, who lost 43-8 to Seattle in February\u2019s title game, are second-favorites at 5-1, meaning a successful $100 bet would net $500. In-person registration for the season-long contest will be open until Saturday.<\/p>\n
\tSports Consultant<\/p>\n
\tFrohardt-Lane has been successful enough as a sports gambler to be hired as a consultant to a professional U.S. sports franchise, helping to evaluate potential draft picks. Agreeing to the team\u2019s request not to disclose its identity, he said it\u2019s been tougher to contribute than he had expected because of the statistical analysis that was already in place.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cI find myself contributing at the margins,\u201d Frohardt- Lane said. \u201cFive or 10 years ago the gambling world was so far ahead of what the teams are doing. I don\u2019t know if that\u2019s the case anymore.\u201d<\/p>\n
\tFrohardt-Lane\u2019s gambling success also has brought him a hint of fame, as strangers notice his arrival when he visits the SuperBook. His celebrity, however, ends there.<\/p>\n
\t\u201cI don\u2019t think I even get recognized in the casino area,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
No replies were posted for this topic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) \u2014 By day, David Frohardt-Lane puts his math skills to use as an algorithmic trader for 3Red Group in Chicago. Away from work, he uses them to cash in on the National Football League. Frohardt-Lane is seeking…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-other-games"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7969","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/36"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7969"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7969\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7969"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7969"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7969"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}