\nSportswriters face off in contest predicting what will happen in the big game
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\nSportswriters face off in contest predicting what will happen in the big game
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\tBy Case Keefer Las Vegas Sun
\n\tThe Super Bowl is the one sporting event where a gambler can compile a stack of betting slips as thick as a textbook.<\/p>\n
\tWith almost every casino in town posting hundreds of ways to wager on Sunday\u2019s showdown between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks, the possibilities appear endless. The problem comes with figuring out where to start.<\/p>\n
\tSports books aren\u2019t one to offer a foreword or a table of contents. The Sun\u2019s sports staff decided to fill the void and give suggestions on how to dive into the daunting list of betting options.<\/p>\n
\tCase Keefer, Ray Brewer and Taylor Bern each attacked the holy grail of Super Bowl prop bets, the offerings at the LVH Superbook, to find wagers of their liking. The only rules were that they had to pick six props apiece and spend an entire fictional bankroll of $1,000.<\/p>\n
\tRead below for the props they\u2019re recommending along with a reasoning for each of the 18 wagers.<\/p>\n
\tCase Keefer<\/p>\n
\tWill there be a safety? No at minus 800: $400 to win $50<\/p>\n
\tWhile it\u2019s not very adventurous to risk almost half of my bankroll on an 8-to-1 shot right away, this might be the best value on the board. The odds of no safety for the last several Super Bowls were minus 1300. Bettors notoriously pound the high-payout \u201cyes\u201d annually, which has done significant damage to the sports books the last two years when an unlikely safety has occurred. Oddsmakers tried to exercise caution this year, but adjusted way too drastically.<\/p>\n
\tWill Richard Sherman intercept a pass? No at minus 250: $250 to win $100<\/p>\n
\tAnother prop where at least four out of every five tickets will come on the \u201cyes.\u201d That\u2019s built into the line, which creates an opportunity to go the other way. If you believe Sherman has less than 29 percent to snag an interception \u2014 I absolutely do \u2014 then this is a profitable wager.<\/p>\n
\tNumber of completed full rounds of Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber at UFC 169 plus 0.5 (plus 110) over Julius Thomas receptions: $100 to win $110<\/p>\n
\tHad to get in on the first UFC cross-sport prop, which looks like a juicy line. In 69 career fights, Barao and Faber have gotten stopped two times combined. Their bout is almost guaranteed to go five rounds, meaning Thomas will need six receptions. That\u2019s difficult against the Seahawks, the NFL\u2019s best defense against tight ends. Seattle didn\u2019t allow that many receptions in two games combined versus the best tight end in the NFL, Jimmy Graham, who had four catches.<\/p>\n
\tRussell Wilson rushing yards over 30.5: $110 to win $100<\/p>\n
\tWilson\u2019s rushing ability is underrated, as he went over this number in half of Seattle\u2019s regular season games. But most of those teams weren\u2019t as vulnerable against rushing quarterbacks as Denver. In four games versus dual-threat quarterbacks this season, the Broncos allowed more than 30.5 rushing yards three times.<\/p>\n
\tDoug Baldwin longest reception over 19.5 yards: $110 to win $100<\/p>\n
\tI\u2019m bullish on Baldwin, Seattle\u2019s most underrated weapon. I trust him far more than Percy Harvin, who has higher totals on every prop bet. I considered over 39.5 receiving yards, over 3.5 receptions and plus 290 to score a touchdown but this looked like the best pro-Baldwin option. He eclipsed this number in 13 of 18 games this season.<\/p>\n
\tMargin of Victory Seahawks 5-to-8 points at 13-to-2: $30 to win $195<\/p>\n
\tHere\u2019s where I try to make amends for two chalky picks earlier with a high-priced gamble. The rest of the props gave away my lean to Seattle. The range of possibilities is vast but, if forced to make a prediction, I\u2019d pick the Seahawks by a touchdown. Might as well scoop a nice score if that comes in.<\/p>\n
\n\tRay Brewer<\/p>\n
\tPeyton Manning passing yards plus 0.5 over Big Ten team (Michigan, Indiana, Purdue, Penn State) points: $330 to win $300<\/p>\n
\tIndiana averages 76 points per game, but in its last three games prior to Jan. 30 against Nebraska, the Hoosiers scored just 56, 66, and 47 points. The lone way for them to beat Michigan will be slowing down the game. While the total in the Penn State-Purdue game will be in the 140s and those teams could easily cover the over, low-scoring Indiana will cash my ticket. I expect Manning to surpass 300 yards.<\/p>\n
\tJon Ryan shortest punt over 33.5 yards (plus 110): $200 to win $220<\/p>\n
\tRyan has had just five touchbacks in 74 punts this season in averaging 42.7 yards per kick. And with Denver\u2019s defense being average at best, Ryan might not be called frequently into action. I do worry about potentially kicking in poor conditions, but still worth a play.<\/p>\n
\tWill both teams make a 33-yard or longer field goal? Yes at plus 170: $100 to win $170<\/p>\n
\tDenver\u2019s Matt Prater and Seattle\u2019s Steven Hauschka have been two of the NFL\u2019s best kickers all season. The risk on this wager is whether they\u2019ll get an opportunity to kick. With Seattle\u2019s stingy defense, Denver will likely have a scoring drive stalled and be forced to kick. Good price here.<\/p>\n
\tTotal number of players to have a passing attempt over 2.5 at plus 290: $100 to win $290<\/p>\n
\tI\u2019ll be rooting for an injury to Peyton Manning or Russell Wilson, or a trick play. Probably not the best wager I\u2019ve placed in my life, but definitely not the worst. Hopefully, I\u2019ll get lucky \u2014 then get paid.<\/p>\n
\tTotal number of kick returns by both teams under 6 at plus 150: $150 to win $225<\/p>\n
\tDenver\u2019s Matt Prater kicks everything out of the end zone \u2014 and not just in high-altitude Denver. This ticket can also cash in a low-scoring game with few kickoffs, thus limiting the amount of potential returns.<\/p>\n
\tLongest completion by Russell Wilson under 38.5: $120 to win $109<\/p>\n
\tThe only way Seattle wins the Super Bowl is by keeping Denver off the field. Seattle will attempt to control the pace through its run game, and not through the home run ball. In two playoff games, Wilson has passed for 103 and 210 yards \u2014 not exactly airing it out.<\/p>\n
\n\tTaylor Bern<\/p>\n
\tAlternate Pointspread Seattle minus 3.5 at plus 190: $100 to win $190<\/p>\n
\tI would obviously love this even more if it was on the opposite side of three but as far as the different lines go there\u2019s value in nearly 2-to-1 for a number that\u2019s not far off the opening line.<\/p>\n
\tFirst Touchdown of the game will not be a passing touchdown at plus 150: $100 to win $150<\/p>\n
\tAgain, all about the value. Most would agree a pass is more likely but both teams are capable of running the ball, and returns aren\u2019t out of the question.<\/p>\n
\tTotal receptions by Marshawn Lynch under 1.5 at plus 120: $150 to win $180<\/p>\n
\tLynch has four receptions over his last four games. That\u2019s enough for me to take a flyer on the under.<\/p>\n
\tPeyton Manning will throw a touchdown pass in the first quarter at plus 160; Peyton Manning will throw a touchdown pass in the third quarter at plus 165: $200 to win $320 & $200 to win $330<\/p>\n
\tI suggest playing these together. The Broncos will start with the ball in one of these quarters and figure to complete no less than three drives over that span.<\/p>\n
\tJulius Thomas to score the first touchdown at 10-to-1: $150 to win $1,500<\/p>\n
\tI also looked hard at Wes Welker and Eric Decker, who are both 10\/1. Getting this one right can cover up a few losing tickets.<\/p>\n
\tKevin Durant points plus 7.5 over Peyton Manning passing attempts: $100 to win $90.90<\/p>\n
\tThe cross-sport props are the most fun. There are several on there this year and with the way Durant has been scoring this seems as good as any other.<\/p>\n
No replies were posted for this topic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Sportswriters face off in contest predicting what will happen in the big game By Case Keefer Las Vegas Sun The Super Bowl is the one sporting event where a gambler can compile a stack of betting slips as thick as…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":36,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6903","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-other-games"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6903","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/36"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6903"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6903\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6903"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6903"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6903"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}