\nBy Frank Scoblete <\/p>\n
\tMany players in the dice control community attempt to formulate and then justify odd betting choices, thinking that they are prescribing excellent wagering schemes when, in fact, they advocate idiocy. <\/p>\n
\tOne such formulation is called the \u201cSee a horn, bet a horn\u201d principle that advocates betting the horn with its 12.5 percent house edge should you see a streak of such horn numbers, those being 2, 3, 11, and 12. No one is quite sure what a streak consists of but some have likened it to the Supreme Court\u2019s opinion about pornography, which I\u2019ll paraphrase, \u201cI can\u2019t define pornography but I know it when I see it.\u201d <\/p>\n
\tOf course, a conservative religious person might see pornography in a kiss, while those reared in the sexual revolution might only see pornography when it involves a child. Who is right? Take your pick of either side \u2013 or any side in between. <\/p>\n
\tHowever, we can make certain astute observations about whether one should bet a horn after seeing a controlled shooter hitting several horn numbers. The answer is no, obviously, since a house edge of 12.5 percent is out of the reach of most controlled shooters\u2019 abilities. <\/p>\n
\tWith six chances of occurring in a craps game, the horn has the same possibility of hitting as does the 4 and 10. <\/p>\n
\tThe Horn:
\n\t2 = one chance (1:1)
\n\t3 = two chances (2:1; 1:2)
\n\t11 = two chances (6:5; 5:6)
\n\t12 = one chance (6:6) <\/p>\n
\tTotal = six ways <\/p>\n
\tThe 4 and 10:
\n\t4 = three chances (2:2; 3:1; 1:3)
\n\t10 = three chances (5:5; 6:4; 4:6) <\/p>\n
\tTotal = six ways <\/p>\n
\tLet\u2019s compare the house edges on both of these wagering choices (we will focus only on the \u201cright\u201d bets): <\/p>\n
\tHorn = 12.5 percent
\n\tPlace 4 and 10 = 6.67 percent
\n\tBuy 4 and 10 at $35 with $1 commission paid on all wagers = 2.78 percent
\n\tBuy the 4 and 10 at $25 with $1 commission paid on winning wagers only = 1.3 percent <\/p>\n
\tNow given these house edges, players would have to be a true Crazy Crappers (as the Captain calls them) to bet the horn in a random game. But what of a controlled shooter? After all a controlled shooter is changing the statistics of the game to favor himself. That is true but only true in certain instances \u2013 very few controlled shooters can overcome that massive 12.5 percent edge. <\/p>\n
\tUnfortunately, the controlled shooter would have to be just as crazy betting that horn and here\u2019s why. Even if we took the worst 4 and 10 bet, the simple placement coming in with a large 6.67 percent edge, it is still only about half as bad as the horn. Yes, a 6.67 percent edge is extremely difficult to overcome but it is still less difficult than that horn horror. <\/p>\n
\tIf we look at the other ways of \u201cbuy\u201d betting on the 4 and 10, we see edges of 2.78 percent and 1.3 percent. These edges are incredibly good in comparison to the horn edge. <\/p>\n
\tOf course, the \u201csee a horn, bet a horn\u201d advocates insist that in \u201csome cases\u201d those streaks (which they must recognize intuitively) of horn numbers means it is wise to throw your money (away) on this bet. After all, they claim, a controlled shooter might just be setting the dice for that horn. True, they might be setting for the horn \u2013 whether they can overcome that massive house edge or not. (In almost all cases it is not!) <\/p>\n
\tThis setting for the horn is utter nonsense when we realize that someone setting the dice to hit the horn has overlooked, through ignorance or stubbornness, the fact that it would be a much better proposition to set for the 4 and 10 by using a set called the 2-V which is designed to specifically hit those 4s and 10s. <\/p>\n
\tWhy would a shooter and\/or bettor choose to go after a 12.5 percent house edge whose numbers have six ways of hitting when he can set those dice in a 2-V to go after the 4 and 10, a far better bet? <\/p>\n
\tAs incredible as it seems, the advocacy of the \u201csee a horn, bet a horn\u201d theorists is based more on a kind of mystical faith than on any kind of reasonable and logical approach to controlled shooting at craps. Such a theorist can give circuitous and long-winded explanations as to why one should bet a horn when you see a horn but not one of those puffy explanations holds water. It\u2019s a dumb bet that can\u2019t be beaten except by the most masterful of dice controllers. <\/p>\n
\tNow, even if a shooter can beat the horn\u2019s high house edge, as some Golden Touch dice control masters can, it is still an idiotic bet. If they waste their energy going after the horn, they have given up real money-making opportunities by ignoring much better propositions one of which I explained above. <\/p>\n
\t\u201cSee a horn, bet a horn\u201d is an unfunny joke perpetrated by the comedians of craps and dice control analysis that will have very few of their adherents laughing as they withdraw their funds from the ATM for more such foolish bets. Serious dice controllers stay away from such jokes because they know the truth about percentages and house edges. It isn\u2019t funny to lose money.<\/p>\n
No replies were posted for this topic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
By Frank Scoblete Many players in the dice control community attempt to formulate and then justify odd betting choices, thinking that they are prescribing excellent wagering schemes when, in fact, they advocate idiocy. One such formulation is called the \u201cSee…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-64","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-gtc-wisdom"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=64"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/64\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=64"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=64"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumarchives.tmsites.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=64"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}