\nFor some time now 1-4 members of our dice team have been getting together
\n\tto play. For the most part we are small betters and dont bet according to the
\n\tpractice we have put in.<\/p>\n
\tIN theory we are doing to ourselves, what the casino does to good card
\n\tcounters when they say you can play, but you cant raise the your starting
\n\tbet. It becomes impossible to win, even small bets on those that make it
\n\tpast the five count eat up your smalls wins.<\/p>\n
\tThere is a young guy that has been showing up to play, and he bets table
\n\tmax across the board which is $100, 4\/5\/9\/10.$120 6 & 8 and then a $100
\n\tpass line bet with double odds. based on what the pit boss told me and
\n\tanother member of our team, the guy has made now $77,000 in out last
\n\t5 sessions. we are all even or a few hundred dollars ahead.<\/p>\n
\tNow i am not complaining about being just a little ahead in five sessions, being
\n\tahead and having the fun means we are on the right tract with our throws,
\n\tbut there is another side to this, and that is are you underbetting the effort
\n\twe have put in.???<\/p>\n
\n\tThe last few weeks i have been practicing at home while betting and i did $160
\n\tacross and only a minimum pass line bet, $160 across with $10 pass and double odds
\n\tand then no pressing ….ever
\n\tMy records indicate to me that my SRR can with stand a bet like this. The best i
\n\thave done consistantly at home is $135 across (no 5) $10 pass line bet, double
\n\todds on all except the 5. I have then been pressing 1 unit starting at the 2nd hit
\n\ton any number.<\/p>\n
\tMy results are nothing short of a huge slap in the face …..i have had any number of rolls
\n\tin the 20’s where i made over $1000 where i would have made maybe $100, i have
\n\tgotten so many hits on the 4 & 10 where i always miss them, and by presssing 1 unit or
\n\tnot at all i get money on every hit.<\/p>\n
\tNOw i understand the guy that has been betting table max is going to lose in the long
\n\trun, and i understand he has been making money on our rolls, but one factor that
\n\thas led to his profit on our rolls, is not only our longer SRR, but the fact that he gets every
\n\t4 & 10 and he never losses a single hit because he cant press, he puts money in the
\n\track on every throw.<\/p>\n
\tmy records show i hit a good amount of nines, i dont hardly ever throw a five, so
\n\tmy best results are not betting the five at all unless it is a pass point.<\/p>\n
\tI have not used this yet at a casino, but my results at home are very good.
\n\tWondering if anyone else feels their SRR allows that type of starting bet.<\/p>\n
\tgman<\/p>\n
Posted by:<\/strong> Timmer on August 1, 2013, 4:12 pm<\/p>\n \tIt sounds like the young man has been blessed with a short run of positive variance. I wish I could be that lucky.<\/p>\n \tYou write that you know that in the long run, the young man will be a loser betting as he does. This is true.<\/p>\n \tAssuming he is a random roller and\/or is mostly betting on random rollers, he will most certainly lose his bankroll in the long run playing a negative-expectation game such as craps.<\/p>\n \tThe young random roller’s all-across bet is also troubling given the number of paying hits he needs to get back to even. It will take sizable hands to do so. You can do the math to show how many throws it will take him to break even given random distribution of numbers of two dice being thrown. As you know, even with his all-across bet, not all throws will be paying hits.<\/p>\n \tInteresting that along with his all-across bet, he is not taking full advantage of the best bet on the craps table – the odds bet. Unless this casino only offers 2X odds, that is.<\/p>\n \tThe table below is a handout given to GTC students and is taught as part of the new GTC betting curriculum. <\/p>\n \tEFFECT OF INCREASED PASS-LINE ODDS ON HOUSE EDGE<\/strong><\/p>\n \tODDS TAKEN \/ HOUSE EDGE<\/strong> \tThe odds bet itself has 0% house edge. This table reflects the combination of the 1.41% pass-line bet house edge with the 0% odds bet house edge.<\/p>\n \tNotice that when the odds bet increases, the house edge decreases. This is why GTC teaches that taking as much odds as you can comfortably afford is the smart advantage play. <\/p>\n \tKnowing your skill level will tell you what bets you have an edge on. SRR is but one component used to identify that advantage. SmartCraps is an excellent software program to identify the bets you have an advantage over… or not. Smartcraps will also show you the extent of your edge (or lack of edge) on the various craps bets.<\/p>\n \tAs GTC teaches, trusting your throw and the skills fine-tuned by practice and then taking full advantage of only those bets you have a proven edge on is the way to beat this negative expectation game we all love.<\/p>\n \tPerhaps more information than your post asks for, but armed with this information and for the reasons given, I would not make the young random roller’s all-across bet.<\/p>\n \tI hope this helps answer your question.<\/p>\n \t \ud83d\ude0e \ud83d\ude0e \ud83d\ude0e<\/p><\/div>\n<\/div>\n Posted by:<\/strong> Skinny on August 1, 2013, 4:24 pm<\/p>\n
\n\t1X \/ 0.85%
\n\t2X \/ 0.61%
\n\t3X \/ 0.47%
\n\t5X \/ 0.33%
\n\t10X \/ 0.18%
\n\t20X \/ 0.10%
\n\t100X \/ 0.02%<\/p>\n