Let’s take the $10 table with double odds and compare a $10 come bet with $20 in odds vrs a place bet for $30.

The $10 come bet will have a house advantage of 1.4 % or 14 cents.  The odds will have no house advantage since it is an even money bet.   So it is still only $.14 on the entire $30 dollars.   

However a $30 place bet on the 6 or 8 will have a house advantage of 1.5% which appears to be  about the same.  However to look at the two bets in dollars, the place bet, in dollars will be l. 5% on the entire $30 or 45 cents. A big difference.  

Remember the casino builds these giant casino with this advantage in the long term.   

Looking at the house advantage in dollars really shows that come betting with odds is the best bet in the casino.  With the grip and throw we teach in the GTC classes, you can develop a player advantage to beat the casino in the long run.  

Actually, I am going to have to take that article down. I think I will wait a couple of days because maybe Skinny will chime in and possibly explain it better than Doc or I.

As stated the place bet on the 6/8 carries a house edge of 1.5%. A come bet with only 1X odds has a house edge of .85% – 2X odds – a house edge of .61%. That should be plain enough.

Also, the math is a little wrong in the article. With an SRR of 6.23 the shooter has an edge f close to 1.7%. so with that SRR placing the 6/8 give the shooter an advantage of .2% (1.7 – 1.5). With the same SRR and using a comebet the shooter has an advantage of .85%! (1.7 -.85)

Thank you for bringing this article up to my attention

Dom

I under stand that a PSOs  will be a killer for one thing . So you need to roll the number again which may take some time or several rolls . You then put up another come bet right . Well if you roll a different number then you will have at risk what you would have from the start with place bets and into a roll that may be passed your SRR .

I look at it that I may be able to get passed 3 rolls . So I place the 6 and 8 with a come bet . When the 2nd roll goes to a box number I take down  the place bets and make another come bet . If the first come bet goes to the 6 or 8 then I use the win for odds . So then I will have less out of rack to play on with .

So far in practice the PSOs  have been a killer . Then again I have had vary few rolls were I go up on a third come bet . 

Now if you are at a point were you throw repeaters come betting is great . For me it seems that the roll has to be in the 20s or better for me to get to the 3rd come bet . 

As far as taking down the post what about rewriting books out there or write another one with more info on come betting . just my .01 worth .

Good Rolling.

Finisher states: Now if you are at a point were you throw repeaters come betting is great . For me it seems that the roll has to be in the 20s or better for me to get to the 3rd come bet . 

I am at a loss in explaining this I guess. Throwing repeaters is not the point on if you should be a come player. It all has to do with the math…. Example: Do you want to make a purchase at a store that charges you 1.5% (the edge on placing the 6/8) or make the same purchase at a store that charges you .85% tax (the edge on a comebet with 1X odds)

Dom

@finisher, It’s sounding a lot like you need a Refresher, or at a minimum, a Tune Up,  If you’re struggling with the PSO’s and getting hands beyond your SRR, I think the time is ripe!!!!  You’re a lover of the game, so perhaps it’s time?

Don

HardNine It was hard enough to get the wife to agree on the class . Then I talked her into the VP class which was a bad idea . We mentioned to Dom that we both have played for some time and had even be to Bobs Dancer classes . He assured us that it would be worth it . Well it was not and Dom sad that he would give us a discount on our next class . Which was nice . Now comes the BUT she is not interested period . O by the way she is like Dom Italian . So you know how that will go . 

On every trip I have one or two PSOs but I also have rolls one or two above the teens to make up those bad hands . I just play WAY to long and I am working hard on that . I do love this game and did sign up for another 2 yrs on this site .

Something funny is that before I took the class hardly nobody would want to talk to you unless you had taken the class . I got to roll with a few that know I was going to take the class in Vegas . Since I live in PHOENIX I had a van that we could drive to a casino . We decided to go to a casino off strip . There were 4 of us and we had a great time except I was told that I could bet all that I wanted but could not roll the dice . It was a big laugh for all of us since I had not taken the class yet . 

After I took the class the same group asked if I wanted to meet and roll with them at another casino . Which was nice of them but when I went to see the table was full and the limit was 25.00 which was not for my BR.

This site has gotten MUCH Better since then and they now teach betting in classes . I have been rolling dice since the early 70s so do have some bad habits .

Good Rolling.

@finisher,

Yep, understood.  And the bad experiences like that don’t help.  My money, my decision to roll.  Their money, their decision to bet…. they would (should) have five counted you!!! :-D.

I enjoy your conversations with Dom.  Keep the posts up.  The tables are tough these days with the minimums.  I know when I started, I couldn’t handle a $15 table, and only bought in with $200, it’s all I had.  Anyone with limited bankroll has a tougher time indeed.  I play with several who won’t play $25.  I first had to get my level of play to where I was comfortable, then had to practice for at least two months to get my head wrapped around betting at that level.  What forced my hand was a get together with a reserved table at $25.  I wanted in, so I practiced and actually had the longest hand on that reserved table and won a $200 pool.  I credit that to the head game more than my physical game.  You can’t worry about the outlay, you concentrate on that next shot.

I don’t know if you saw the link, perhaps you posted it, but Dom’s interview with the hypnotic poker player was incredible.  I’m keeping that link handy and encouraging others to view it.  It gets deep and energetic about what Dom teaches already, with both of them building on each others emphatic belief in the power of the mind.  It really does help. 4-5, 4-5, 4-5…. HardNine!!!

Keep at it, perhaps see you at the tables!

Don

Dom and Doc are both correct in explaining why come bets are better than place bets.  For a random roller the House Advantage (HA) is lower for come bets than for any place bet.  A random roller can expect to lose less money over his lifetime of craps betting by making come bets rather than place bets.  The math on this is clear and indisputable.  Dom explained it using the math as it applies to random rolls and Doc explained it in dollars and cents as it applies to random rollers.  Both explanations are valid and accurate.

It stands to reason that the same logic will apply to controlled shooters who are able to reduce the appearance of the seven.  But the math on that is not as simple to produce as it is for random rollers.  Stickman had to make several assumptions in arriving at his conclusions for controlled shooters.  There are no facts or science that would support those assumptions.  In fact I would argue that the assumptions do nothing more than distort the math as it applies to controlled shooters.

This is the simple answer without going into the details than can get complicated and quite tedious to those that are not interested in delving into some in depth math.  For those who are interested I will attempt to explain it in the next post.  But if your head explodes when going over math you can stop here. 

First we need to look at what we mean by the House Advantage (HA) and why the casinos depend on it to make their profits.  Simply put, the HA is the difference between what the house pays for a random event vs. the true odds for that event.

For example, in craps each die has 6 faces and each face is equally likely to be thrown in a random throw.  Thus there are 36 possible combinations of results when two die are thrown in a random fashion.  From those 36 possibilities, we can calculate the probability of success or failure for each wager on a craps table.

Let’s take a look at a place bet on the 6.  The place bet wins if the shooter throws a 6 before throwing a 7.  There are 5 ways to throw a 6 and 6 ways to throw a 7.  Thus the odds of throwing a 6 before throwing a 7 is 5 to 6.  If the house were to pay you $6 for every $5 you put up as a place bet on the 6 they would be paying you at true odds.  But in order to make a profit they need to pay less than true odds.  Thus the house pays $7 for every $6 that one places on the 6.  Let’s see how this works out on a $30 place bet on the 6.  If the house paid out true odds you would get $36 when you win.  Instead the house only pays $35 and that $1 difference is their profit.  The HA is how much you can expect to lose over time which happens because of the difference in odds between what you are paid and the true odds.

Let’s say you make eleven $6 place bets on the 6.  You will have wagered a total of $66.  You can expect to win your bet 5 times, collecting a total of $13 ($7 win plus $6 wager) for a total of $65.  Thus you can expect to lose $1 for every $66 you wager.  $1 is 1.5% of $66.  The HA for a place bet on the 6 is 1.5%.  In other words, the house can expect to win 1.5% of all the money that is wagered on the 6 in a random game.

Remember this is based on the FACT that a random throw is expected to result in 5 sixes and 6 sevens being thrown every 36 rolls on average over time.

I could show how this applies to the HA for every wager on the craps table.  But it is all based on the FACT that in 36 rolls of two die for a random roller we can expect to see exactly 1 two and twelve, 2 threes and elevens, 3 fours and tens, 4 fives and nines, 5 sixes and eights and 6 sevens.

But these numbers change dramatically if one is able to control the dice and alter the number of sevens that one can expect.

SRR stands for sevens to rolls ratio and it is used to calculate the ratio of sevens one can expect to throw per throw.  1:6 is one seven for every six rolls on average, which is a random shooter.  Conversely a random shooter can expect to throw 6 sevens every 36 rolls which leaves the other combinations of dice for the other 30 rolls in 36 rolls.

A controlled shooter who can develop an SRR of 8 can expect a ratio of 1:8, one seven for every eight rolls on average.  But that means for this controlled shooter he will not be throwing 6 sevens in 36 rolls.  He can expect to throw only 4.5 sevens in 36 rolls.  The dice still produce other results in the remaining rolls.  But rather than 30 combinations we will now have 31.5 different combinations.

It is clear that by reducing the appearance of the seven one increases the appearance of the other numbers.  In order to determine the HA for this controlled shooter we have to know what that distribution is for the other numbers.  Furthermore that distribution would change for each player.  A controlled shooter who has good axis control will significantly reduce the appearance of the 1 and 6.  By doing so he will have an increased number of inside numbers.  A controlled shooter who is good at throwing primary hits will significantly increase the number of 4, 6, 8 and 10’s that he throws.

I believe what Stickman did in the calculations for controlled shooters was to evenly distribute the extra rolls amongst the remaining numbers.  In other words for an SRR of 8 we know there are 31.5 additional numbers thrown for the other 30 possibilities.  That is a 5% increase.  So what he did was increase each of the other possible numbers by 5%.  It is highly unlikely that this would be the case when one is able to control the dice to reduce the appearance of the seven.

The only thing we know for certain with SRR is the ratio of sevens to rolls on average.  It does not give us any information about the other numbers that can be thrown other than knowing we will be increasing the other numbers that appear.  But how that increase takes place directly determines the HA for the controlled shooter.  We can only calculate HA for a random roller because we know what distribution of all the dice we can expect for a random throw.

One final point I forgot to make in the simple explanation.

There is not a big difference in the HA between a come bet without odds (1.4%) and a place bet on the 6 or 8 (1.5%).

But if you can not afford to take odds it stands to reason you have a limited bankroll.  A bankroll that can not withstand too many early losses.

When making come bets your money gets on the table more slowly.  It is protected against a number of early point seven outs (PSO).  The exact opposite happens when one makes place bets.

If you do a $10 pass line (PL) and a place bet of $12 on the six and eight, you have $34 at risk immediately.  2, 3 or 4 PSO’s cost you $68, $102 or $136 pretty quickly.

But if you have a $10 PL followed by a $10 come bet a PSO costs you nothing.  You lose $10 on the PL and win $10 on the CB.

So while the come bet has its greatest advantage when you take odds, it has still has the advantage of protecting your bankroll if you have a limited BR and can not afford odds.

Skinny, I am no math expert–actually the opposite, but your explanation is one that shows Rose and Doc why come betting is best.   Thank you for your time and input.  You are and will always be a great asset to the GTC family.

Rose and Doc

PS–Goldfinger once told us, that if you have a come bet up with some odds and you roll a 7, you do not lose the come bet portion of your bet because the odds portion is an even money bet and over time the worst that can happen is you will break even–for both GTC control rollers and random rollers.  The loss of the come bet portion of your wager is just a temporary hit to your bank roll.  

Just make sure you have sufficient bankroll to get you through the long run.  Bank roll is most important.  

Skinny when we talked on the phone about this math problem I thought to myself that the explanation would be so involved that it would be boring and hard to keep track. BUT, you did it!

You explained it very simply and I do so appreciate your contributions to this site!

Dom

Great writeup Skinny!  The very points you’re digging into there, IMHO, are the reasons there is consternation when discussing HA.  It’s not MY HA on box numbers, which as you stated, is something you can’t easily calculate for everyone, and even if you did, it’s not likely to remain constant over time.  I have something slightly different in my throw today than I did yesterday.  This past Saturday, my 8’s and 10’s were on fire, but the session before, 5’s and 6’s and on and on.  So that exercise would become futile.

I think your writeup needs to be part of a slide in betting, it’s huge to get that out there because of the questions about controlled shooters over randies.  I love it!

Skinny you are the math guy and did a great job at explaining it .

Good Rolling.

@finisher,

You write: “I under stand that a PSOs  will be a killer for one thing”.  and “On every trip I have one or two PSOs “

  Smartcraps say that 10% of hands PSO and 11% PNSO for a total of 21% or 1 out 5 hands end in the first 3 rolls.  This tells me that 3-counting yourself, that is, not putting odds on the pass line bet or doing a come bet until the 3-count is complete, will save a lot of money – “you win more by losing less” to quote a GTC instructor.  Just a suggestion.

________________________________________________________________

The more I practice, the luckier I get.

Well if I know which roll that would be would be great . So I wait for that 3 rd. roll then make a come bet I have just as much out there at risk as if it was the first roll . Then when you think that my SRR is just ahead I have to roll that number again or I will have more at risk . The hard part comes when I have 2 come bets up on numbers and the roll then is past 7 rolls which is not hard to do since you did not bet on the first 3 rolls .Just today I went up from the get go with come bets and had a roll of 11 which did not hit either of the come bets .

They say make 2 come bets till you get 3 hits from them . Then after 3 wins go up on another come bet . That is getting up in the rolls for me . Others on this site may throw more repeaters then I do which is great . I am not at that stage in my throw yet . I do have some long rolls but with not that many repeaters .Most of my long rolls will have pass line wins in them . 

On next trip I will do more come betting . Were I play there is one player that come bets . The min . bet is 5.00 but he bets 50.00 on the come with full odds . He only makes one come bet at a time till he has 3 or more wins then he may go to 2 come bets . I have never seen him bet more then that . When he rolls he puts 100.00 on pass line with full odds .  He still does one come bet when he rolls .

I will try the thing about odds . I like making a 1.00 bet for the dealers when I roll and then add odds for them with wins . So I may do that for my bets also . Since it is not often that I est. a point then roll it right back . Wonder what the odds are for that to happen or how often ? 

Good Rolling. 

Let us know how it works out for you Finisher, but remember 1 session will not tell you that much

dom