I wonder what is the avg. of throws before you est. a point .Since we are at home for the most part I thought that this would be a good time to ask the math guys . When I throw on first roll of dice I set the dice but relax more and do what I consider winging them to the end of table . I had one roll a long time ago of a 17 roll before est. a point number . Then again that has not happened again since then . I guess I could go back in the records to see what is up but thought that some may know the answer right now .Or have a chart or something ? Also I have been using a hardway set on all rolls were in past I did not on rolls before est. a point .
Hope to hear from all .
Good Rolling.
Replies:
Posted by: bminus1 on April 22, 2020, 2:47 pm
Finisher writes ”I wonder what is the avg. of throws before you est. a point”
I think that for a random roller, the answer is 2.53 throws before a point is established. This was not determined directly, but indirectly thus: Average # of throws for a random roller is 8.53 per hand (this is from a simulation on smartcraps run by Dan Prononost https://www.goldentouchcraps.com/article.php?p=CrappyMath/math0004.shtml ). For a random roller the average # of rolls per hand after a point is established is 6. Therefore, 8.53 – 6 = 2.53.
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The more I practice, the luckier I get.
Posted by: Dominator on April 22, 2020, 4:38 pm
Interesting!
Dom
Posted by: Goddess on April 23, 2020, 1:34 pm
Friends tell me I frequently throw 7’s and YO’s before a point is established, even though I always use the hardways set. (I don’t know why.) The longest I remember is 8, before establishing a point. That’s why Sandtrap and Jack frequently bet right away on me.
Goddess
Posted by: Finisher on April 24, 2020, 5:42 am
Just think when you get passed 6 you got passed what the casino thinks should be the end of your turn at the dice . With you thinking that you are just starting .
Good Rolling.
Posted by: HardNine on April 27, 2020, 10:57 pm
I had one roll a long time ago of a 17 roll before est. a point number . Then again that has not happened again since then.
All of the answers explain the variance in general, but IMHO, this specific set of rolls was statistically beyond the 3rd standard deviation. As Dom notes, we can’t bet on the short run but must bet on the long run and this is why. It sounds like you were pretty much a random roller by “pretty much winging” the dice, and this situation appears very seldom so in the bell curve of the average of the rolls before the first point is establish, this was way, way, way out at the tail end of the bell curve.
