I’m headed to Vegas on Sunday. I’ll let you know if I survive.

My humble opinion. Go and have fun. Yes the Corona virus is a scary thing. But at this time (Feb 29th–leap year day) it would not keep me from traveling. Rose and Doc just got back from the Vegas class (absolutely no problem) and will head to Memphis in about 2 1/2 weeks. And we have a trip to West Texas to see the grand kids followed by the AC Class in April. If things should change we would consider canceling the trip but for now we look forward to these activities.

Go and have fun. l

Doc

PS–get a mask if you feel the need and be sure to use a hand sanitizer and wash your hands frequently.

PSS –The GTC AC class is May 1 to May 3. Rats, you will just miss it.

"Dr Crapology" wrote: PSS –The GTC AC class is May 1 to May 3. Rats, you will just miss it.

I had hoped that the two would mesh. Would’ve been nice to see everyone again.

Have signed up and have air hotel and car. Will play it by ear. Watching California with now 4 confirmed cases that are from unknown contacts though. And with the high number of visits from there to LV , I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of it there shortly.

Maybe I’m foolish but I don’t worry about such things. I survived Viet nam and a bunch of other incidents that could have ended my life. I’m not going until it’s my time and when it’s my time; there’ll be nothing I can do about it.

OK so they never landlocked that continent like they should’ve so this cats way out of the bag. It got to Italy they don’t know how it got there. There’s American film crews over in Italy filming they just moved outside of Italy to try and avoid it but they still don’t know where when and how the contact point is. For those of us that believe in God and the Bible this is a plague and like you said if it’s your time it’s your time. The funniest thing is people wearing these masks thinking they do any good they don’t.The vote is definitely in God has decided he is going to do some cleansing he’s going to take who you wants and if he doesn’t want you you’ll still be here. Have a great day

Just some additional information: Zero deaths so far in the US from coronavirus but about 100/day from the flu.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl … 69896.html

With all the cuts that have been done it may take some time to get up to speed on this and it seems that Trump thinks it does not to need to be a top thing just yet .I think a 50 yr old died in the us and they have no idea how he got it .The bad thing is that you can transmit it for weeks before you know that you have it .Just think of how many people you come into contract with in that amount of time and the same goes for them .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

So far it’s not as bad as the flu. Of course; we have a vaccine for that. I think that we’ll have one for this to in the near future.

I heard that the math says it is 20 xs worse the the flu if not controlled .
Good Rolling.

Nine deaths all in Washington state, same nursing home, so far. Something like 8 states have reported cases, some travel related some unknown. No therapeutic treatment (not expected for 6 to 8 months) and a Vaccine more than a year out.

"Finisher" wrote: I heard that the math says it is 20 xs worse the the flu if not controlled .
Good Rolling.

This is from the CDC website: Estimated Range of Annual Burden of Flu in the U.S. since 2010
CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

So according to you with the Coronavirus we can expect between 180 million to 9 billion illnesses in the U.S. That would be between 1/2 – 25 times the population???

As for deaths there could be between 240,000 – 1.22 million deaths.

As of today there are 120 cases and 11 deaths reported in the U.S. Ten of the deaths are in Washington state, six in residents of the LifeCare skilled nursing facility.

Let’s compare that to the swine flu pandemic of 2009: As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.

I made it home from Vegas, Ill check back in two weeks. lol

Flying to NYC for Midnight’s cruse on 4/7, and have a transatlantic cruise from Rome set in late October. So far, I’m not changing my plans and just plan on being smart. If anyone sneezes on me, which can happen anywhere, I’ll knock ’em silly, and wash hands early and often…. don’t touch your face with your hands… things you should do during normal flu season, that’s all!

SAR’s we had 60 million infected, 300k hospitalized and around 17-18k died. That was during the administration of Obama and Biden. Does that come as a surprise to you? Was this a big secret or did the MSM not report it? What is the difference from then to now? We were still in the era of the 24 hour news cycle. Democrat vs Republican maybe. I’m still concerned, but, beginning to think this is 
Much a-do about nothing.

Things sure do change with this one fast .

Good Rolling.

I believe that the so called cure, (closing the whole country) will be worse than the virus. When this is over, we got to ask if all this was worth it. Sweden is doing it differently and we shall see what happens there. To me it started politically, still is political, and with the election will end politically.

 

IMHO, time for some states and counties should open. We have got to get back to work. Last year 34K died of the flu and we didn’t shut down and there is a vaccine for the flu. As Stephen said SARS killed 17K and we didn’t shut down. I think our President was damned if he did and damned if he didn’t, a no win situation.

My question is this – is this the new normal? Pandemics have happened before and will happen again. Are we going to shut down the country every time one comes about. We all should think about that and again, will this shut down be worse for most of the country or not. I think it will be worse, people who have lost their jobs might never get them back. Chain stores that are closed now might never reopen. The US has got to get back to work.

 

Dom

 

I think this is a great time for TRUMP TO REALLY make the US great why has he not got us to make all that we need . Instead all of the governors are competing with each other then with the Feds. It takes a leader to get us out of this .

He first said that this was going away and that the governors needed to find for themselves . Now things have sure changed and not for the best .If it gets out of hand and gets even worse then they say it will not matter . It will be the new norm .Just saying I will be in my home till it snows and you know were I live .

Hope you stay healthy .

Good Rolling .

This is a lot worse than H1N1 because it is ~4x more contagious and ~10x more deadly than H1N1.

The chart the CDC presented on TV (Dr. Birx March 31st) showed that the DEATHS in America will peak at between 1200 to 3500 PER DAY depending on how well people adhere to the guidelines.  The best case scenario results in 100,000 dead when it has run it’s course with 240,000 dead if the guidelines are taken lightly.  The total deaths could have been in the millions if no action had been taken to mitigate the spread. Only time will tell if these predictions are accurate.  

link to TV update: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UieI7lej4N0

Yes, more die from a variety of flu viruses than COVID-19, so far. So, why all the fuss?

It’s all because COVID-19 is significantly different by causing lung inflammation. Other flu viruses can cause a excess fluid in the lungs, which might progress to pneumonia – a process that takes time. But lung inflammation happens quickly with COVID-19.

This means the sick have a tremendously higher need for ventilators, and ventilators are in ICU. As you can now see in NYC, hospitals quickly ran out of ICU beds and ventilators. And, each such bed requires a nurse, at most 1 nurse per two beds.

Look at how people continue to empty store shelves daily (why toilet paper?). Imagine your dear old dad succumbs to COVID-19 and can’t breath. You rush with him to the ER. There’s a line of the sick waiting for an available bed with a ventilator, just like dear old dad. You’re told, “Maybe tomorrow. But there are 145 on the waiting list ahead of your father, and we have only 33 beds with ventilators. Even if we had more beds, we don’t have the staff for them.”

”But,” you reply, “the President said their making more ventilators every day, and the Governor has mobilized the National Guard to help out.” The Admissions Clerk responds, “That’s all true, but that takes time, and training nurses for ICU and to operate ventilators takes time. If only we didn’t have so many sick at the same time, we would be able to help you. If your father starts to turn blue, come back and we might be able to get him in sooner.”

if people act crazy to get rolls of tissue for their bums, wait until you see how crazy people get when their loved one is stuck in the hall on a bed, gasping for air, along with a crowded hall full of such people, because there are no more hospital rooms with ventilators and nursing staff. It will get ugly fast. You want to see a country shut down, wait until you see this as COVID-19 burns through our country from NYC to San Francisco.

Again, it’s all because COVID-19 causes inflammation of the lung tissue.

The shelter-at-Home, closing most businesses, restricting travel, are all done to SLOW THE SPREAD of COVID-19, which some call “flattening the curve”. There is no vaccine, so there is no stopping the viral spread. But slowing down the spread gives our country time to equip hospitals with ventilators, convert more beds to ICU, train nurses and hospital staff to operate the equipment and care for the patients. It also gives our medical community time to develop effective treatments .

We are 12+ months away from a vaccine to stop future spreads of COVID-19, so, for now, we have to help the sick survive.

So, stay home. Support your community in its fight to keep hospital ICU beds open for the really sick.

Yes, we can’t keep this shutdown going for too long. But seeing how well President Trump and our country are stepping up to defeat COVID-19, and bring economic relief to our vulnerable employees and businesses, I am confident we’ll not only survive as a strong and vibrant country, we will reopen and come roaring back.

God bless America!

By now we would have made are dates to go to Spain but that is not happening and it seems that it may not happen this year . We usually go for 3 months to see the grd kids and our daughter .They have not left their home for a month now and it is still bad there .I hope this gets over soon .

Good Rolling.

From the CDC website: Estimated Range of Annual Burden of Flu in the U.S. since 2010
CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Let’s compare that to the swine flu pandemic of 2009: As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.

For Covid-19, as of March 3, 2020, there were 120 cases and 11 deaths reported in the U.S. Ten of the deaths were in Washington state, six in residents of the LifeCare skilled nursing facility.

As of today, April 2, 2020 the latest numbers from Johns Hopkins University report in the U.S. there have been 226,374 confirmed cases with 5,316 deaths. 

Let’s compare them side by side:

 

Flu           27 million      37,000

H1N1       59 million       12,000

Covid-19   226,374          5,316

Plus Covid-19 went from 120/11 to 226,374/5,316 in less than one month. 

Clearly the Coronavirus is much more virulent and lethal than anything we have experienced in our lifetime.  It is highly contagious and mitigation (social distancing) is the only hope we have for now to slow it down. 

The first deaths occurred in Washington state. That state acted very rapidly in closing the state down. California followed suit with their reaction one week later. 

New York waited until two weeks after Washington state and one week after the federal government issued the first stop the spread directive.  Given how fast this virus spreads it is my personal feeling that the delay of a week or two made the problem much worse for NY than what WA and CA are now experiencing.  I am not saying that to assign blame but rather to point out how seriously we need to take this disease. 

The incubation period is 2 – 14 days with an average of around 7 days for infected people to develop symptoms. Expect the next two weeks to be very challenging. The numbers will rise dramatically as those infected in the past week or two will start to succumb to the disease. That doesn’t mean our efforts are not working. Only that we haven’t reached the peak of the curve yet from what we did in the past. 

This is a most difficult challenge but we are a hardy people capable of rising to the occasion. Stay safe, protect your loved ones and we will come thru this together. 

God bless America. 

@skinny I agree completely with your analysis. Residents of NYC and surrounding areas that commute to NYC are unique in our country in their pervasive use of mass transportation. The commuters breath the same air in close proximity to each other and touch the same surfaces repeatedly. That is an environment primed for mass infection.

That’s not a criticism, it’s fact for life in the Big Apple. That’s why NYC is the epidemic epicenter, and they need our help.

For the rest of us, our time will come. For now, we need to do what we can to slow the spread so as to keep medical resources available for those in need.

Skinny You said that it went from 120 /11 to 226,374 /5,316 in one month so how does that look till Nov. ? 

I feel that we are still at the start of this or in the 2nd inning of the situation with vary little leadership .

I said in another post that this is a great time for Trump to make what his hats say yet he is just now talking to 3M and others when he should have done that months ago .just saying .

He in in a position that no other person is in to know about things .He just has to listen more then just go with his thoughts about how it would affect him in the election . 

Good Rolling.

It was 226,374/5,316 yesterday.

It is 276,995/7,406 today.

It went up 50,000 cases and 2,100 deaths in just 1 day here in the U.S.

But there are a few factors driving those numbers.  However it does appear that the curve is increasing sharply and will be for the next 2 weeks or so.  Most of that is being driven by what is happening in NY and mainly in NYC.  If NY state were a country it would rank 4th in the world with 103,476/3,218.

The models showed that we could expect somewhere between 100,000 – 240,000 deaths in the U.S. with the mitigation we were doing at that point.  Today I think the lower number is down to 93,000.

The problem is we do not have sufficient experience to predict this pandemic accurately.  The numbers change daily and they can change dramatically.  NYC and its surrounding territory is driving the U.S. numbers severely.  If there is another outbreak in a different metro area such as Detroit, New Orleans, Los Angeles, etc. the numbers could worsen far more than they have thus far.

That is the reason we need to take this seriously.  It can be controlled, we have a huge army attacking this problem, there is no need to panic.  But now is not the time for complacency or partisanship.  This is a nationwide problem that we can solve as a nation with each of us doing our part as Americans.

As I said yesterday, CA and WA seem to be under control for now.  There are some concerns about Detroit and New Orleans.  Only time will tell. 

Nobody can tell you accurately where we will be in November.  The expectation is that this round of Covid-19 will be over.  It could recur in the Fall but by then we will be in a much better position to deal with it.  A certain amount of herd immunity will have been built into the population, we will be better positioned to deal with it because of what we learned thru this wave, in general it should not be anything like this outbreak.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections