Over the past several years, the casinos have been adding "special wagers" in order to encourage people to play the the game such as craps, blackjack, pai gow poker, 3 card poker, let it ride and many more–too many to mention. To my knowledge all of these "extra wagers" have a much higher house vig than the regular game. Example: at craps the basic pass line bet has a house advantage of 1.41 but the Small Tall All bet has a house advantage in the 20% to 25% range—I don’t know for sure, only that the house takes a big bite out of this bet. I looked on the wizard of odds and could not fine this wager.
So Doc decided to make a short run at the the Small Tall All bet while practicing at home on his and Rose’s craps table. Rose has agreed to edit this analysis. And I thank her for that.
Here are the assumptions:
With the start of each turn with the dice, a $15 bet was made–$5 on the Small, $5 on the Tall and $5 on the all.
1. if the initial roll was a 7 (the SMT bets come down), a new $15 bet was made to cover all 3 STA bets.
2. If a point is made and before the next point is established, a 7 is rolled (perhaps more than once) the STA bets come down and are replaced. Doc replaced the 3 STA bets for a 7 on every come out roll.
3. Of course on a 7 out, the three $5 bets are lost and his turn is over.
He would repeat this process for several days.
Doc uses the hard way set exclusively. With some control he seldom rolls the outside numbers–2, 3 11, and 12, although he does seems to roll more 3’s than he would like.
I assumed that the Small and Tall pay $35 to 1 and the All pays $175 to 1. I know that some casinos pay $35 for 1 and $175 for 1.
The results were as follows:
Number of decisions where I made one or a combination of all three bets—200 times.
The number of times $15 lost since he did not make the Small, Tall or All—185 x $15= a loss of $2775
The number of times I made only the Small or Tall (winning 1 bet and losing 2) this happened 12 times–12 x $35=a win of $420 minus 12 x $10 (the 2 losing bets)=$120 equals a net win of $300.
The number of times I make the All 3 x$175 = a win of $525. Making the All means you also made the Small and the Tall. So 3 times $35 for the Small ($105)and 3 times $35 for the Tall ($105)equals $210. Total win on all three bets $735.
Summary:
A loss of $2775
A win on the S & T $ 300
A win on the A $ 735
Net loss $1740
Hopefully I have done the math somewhere in the area of correct. HELP SKINNY!!! 😀 The bottom line is that this indicates these types of bets are good for the casino and not the player. I know this is a very small sample but just an indication that the bet is not a good one.
Hope this will be of value to many of you. Rose and I hope to see you soon.
Doc
Replies:
Posted by: getagrip on September 13, 2018, 3:00 pm
Posted by: TheUsualSuspect on September 13, 2018, 3:06 pm
Posted by: Preacher on September 14, 2018, 4:56 pm
Some casinos pay 30 to 1 for the Small or Tall with an HA of 18.30%, 150 to 1 for the All with an HA of 20.61%. Other casinos pay 34 to 1 for the Small or Tall with an HA of 7.76% and pay 170 for the All with an HA of 7.47%. Obviously, casinos of the latter are better bets, but that’s still a huge HA. The HA on 30-1 and 150-1 casinos is just insulting. Slots are a better game than that kind of HA.
Preacher noticed that Dr Crapology is fond of writing in 3rd person, which Preacher knows is difficult (ha). Preacher saw that Dr Crapology slips up now and then and writes in 1st person, or so I’m told.
Posted by: Dr Crapology on September 14, 2018, 9:44 pm
Posted by: NofieldFive on September 15, 2018, 1:58 pm
I am having a problem with your math, unless I am missing something here, which is entirely possible.
The number of times $15 lost since he did not make the Small, Tall or All—185 x $15= a loss of $2775
The number of times I made only the Small or Tall (winning 1 bet and losing 2) this happened 12 times–12 x $35=a win of $420 minus 12 x $10 (the 2 losing bets)=$120 equals a net win of $300.
The number of times I make the All 3 x$175 = a win of $525. Making the All means you also made the Small and the Tall. So 3 times $35 for the Small ($105)and 3 times $35 for the Tall ($105)equals $210. Total win on all three bets $735.
When you win a Small or a Tall with a $5 bet, you should win $5 x 35 = $175 for each Small or Tall hit. Less $10 for the other 2 bets lost. That leaves $165 each time you won the S or T. You hit it 12 times for a total win on the Small or Tall of 12 x $165 = $1980.
For the All you should win $5 x 175 = $875 plus $175 for the small and $175 for the tall for a total win on the All of $1225. You hit the All 3 times which gives you a total win on All of $3675.
Totals for the bet.
No Win -$2775
Small or Tall $1980
All $3675
Net Win $2880
Respectfully,
NFF
Posted by: Dr Crapology on September 16, 2018, 9:31 pm
I did do some rethinking and did a re do on some of the math. I did lose money on the STA bet during the time I was recording the results. However I did make money on the regular Pass Line and Come Bets that I made.
I made a audit of the STA record and found this. I did lose all 3 bets on the STA a total of 185 times. However I only made the All only 1 (not 3 times) and the Small OR Tall 3 times (not 12 times). Don’t know where the 12 came from concerning the wins on the Small and Tall only.
Not only does the Hard way set protect me from the 7 but it protects from the craps and "yo" bets. I know that I often make all the box numbers but roll a lot fewer of the 2, 3 11, and 12.
Again thank you for taking the time to correct what I posted. I can assure you that I was not offended in any way.
Rose and I look forward to seeing you in the casinos soon.
Doc
Posted by: Big Bad Dad on September 17, 2018, 4:54 am
BBD
Posted by: Skinny on September 17, 2018, 5:33 am
Congratulations on having a good trip.
I think you may be missing the point of this post. The house edge on those wagers is either over 7% or in the 18%-20% range depending on the payout. The big red carries a house edge of 16.67%. When you try to hedge your high house edge wager with another high house wager you are not improving your chances of winning, you are only increasing the edge against you.
If you continue making these high house edge bets you are not likely to have a net win of money on those bets in the long run.
That was what Doc was trying to point out by keeping track of how he did on these wagers in practice over time albeit not a long enough time to be mathematically significant.
With his latest numbers it looks like he made the STA bet 189 times. He hit the All 1 time and the Small or Tall 3 times. While he did hit the wager a few times he still ended up losing money.
Totals for the bet.
No Win -$2775
Small or Tall $495
All $1225
Net Loss $1055
If you are good (or lucky) enough to overcome bets with double digit house edges, imagine how well you could do against wagers that carry a 1.4% (pass/come) or 1.5% (place 6/8) house edge.
It may seem like a challenge to beat the odds and exciting to win one of these exotic wagers. But a serious advantage player does not try for a challenge or excitement. He makes wagers where he has an advantage.
Did you notice where Doc said,
I did lose money on the STA bet during the time I was recording the results. However I did make money on the regular Pass Line and Come Bets that I made.
An advantage player plays a boring game for the following reason:
Posted by: Dr Crapology on September 17, 2018, 11:14 am
Glad you had a successful trip.
Please do remember in making a trip report, one of the Dom’s most important items to remember is that we never, never, never mention the name of a casino. We can say while in Kansas City, Vegas, Albuquerque or other location, we hit a casino and did well.
I know when I first started with GTC, I mentioned a casino name in error and was corrected.
So to all on this board, please keep this in mind as you make a post concerning a trip. We do love to read success stories.
Rose and Doc
Posted by: Dominator on September 17, 2018, 12:14 pm
Please people NO NAMES OF CASINOS!
Dom
Posted by: Big Bad Dad on September 17, 2018, 2:50 pm
I don’t make a habit of betting the sucker bets, any of them. This trip was a rare occasion, where both my dad and I were having crazy long rolls. So we gave it a shot. I would suggest to most people out there, stay away from it.
BBD
Posted by: Finisher on October 4, 2018, 11:32 pm
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂
Posted by: Finisher on October 18, 2018, 3:45 am
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂
