This is prob for Skinny,
So I gave myself homework from the last advance class. I was working on enhancing my throwing dashboard by adding Player’s Edge , by plugging in my actual distribution from my throw log. I researched the formulas on Wiz. of Odds . I figured if I can come up with -1.41 then I had the correct formulas and use my distribution. To my surprise the results were different from the chart distributed in class. I figured that maybe the class chart is some estimate based on solely the SRR and not the distribution so then I attempted to see If I can come up with what the class distribution may look like here are my results for my 5040 rolls with an SRR of 6.52. I have a -0.77% true players edge (Just shows why you really need to place odds on your bets) See the results below. Question: Did I make some mistake ?
Random Rollers Players Edge
Est Probabiltiy of establishing a Poiint and winnng 27.07%
Est Overall Probability of winning 49.29%
Est Probability of Losing 50.71%
Est Players Edge -1.41%
My True Players Edge
Probability of establishing a Point and winning 28.50%
Overall Probability of winning 49.62%
Probability of Losing 50.38%
Players Edge -0.77%
SRR Edge = 6.52
Probability of establishing a Point and winning 29.38%
Overall Probability of winning 50.27%
Probability of Losing 49.73%
Players Edge using SRR only 0.54%
Below is a view link to the dashboard.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Q35uJPmgutkKb0sGleoAn55siE2f4Qzn6AHtutUzuuA/edit#gid=1155939994
Replies:
Posted by: Skinny on May 11, 2018, 4:43 am
While you have a reduced number of sevens from random, you have too many garbage numbers, much higher than random.
Random would expect 560 come out losers (2, 3 and 12’s) and 1120 winners (7 and 11’s) in 5040 throws. You threw 606 losers and 1064 winners. You have too many garbage numbers, much higher than random.
Random would expect to have 560 winners on the come out roll, you only had 458.
The only reason your HA is lower than the -1.41% for a random player is because you do have a reduced number of sevens. So while you are losing more money on the come out roll than a random roller due to the reduced sevens and higher 2, 3 and 12’s, you are winning more of your points because of the reduced number of sevens.
Posted by: Skinny on May 11, 2018, 4:55 am
In other words, assume a random throw on the come out roll since you will have a 2-1 advantage with a random throw on the come out roll when you don’t throw a box number. Then set the dice and with an SRR of 6.52 you will win a higher proportion of your points than a random roller with an SRR of 6.0.
Posted by: MrPiP on May 11, 2018, 5:35 am
"Skinny" wrote: If you apply your 6.52 SRR to the random numbers for 5040 throws, you should come up with a positive HA of 1.7633%.
In other words, assume a random throw on the come out roll since you will have a 2-1 advantage with a random throw on the come out roll when you don’t throw a box number. Then set the dice and with an SRR of 6.52 you will win a higher proportion of your points than a random roller with an SRR of 6.0.
Thanks Skinny, that suggestion was amazing: My calculation came out to as follows:
True Edge
Probability of establishing a Point and winning 28.50%
Overall Probability of winning 50.94%
Probability of Losing 49.06%
Players Edge 1.89%
Next I have to calculate the impact of placing odds.
This was a great exercise to see what the throw is like from a math point of view. That should throw off the casino crew by doing a CFER throw on the come out. lol
BTW I think the garbage numbers are in the process of being aged out as the last 3600 throws showed a positive True Player’s Edge. You can’t see it but I have a drop down that allows me to choose the last 36,320,720,3600,5040 and 7200 throws. This gives me a sense of a point and time of when the throw was bad or needs adjustment because I picked up a bad habit.
Posted by: Dominator on May 11, 2018, 10:16 am
Nice job Mr Pip
Way above my pay grade:)))
Dom
Posted by: Nightrider on May 16, 2018, 11:07 am
"Dominator" wrote: Great work Skinny!
Nice job Mr Pip
Way above my pay grade:)))
Dom
right on dom me too
