If you are a Controlled Shooter, you are attempting to become an Advantage Player(AP) and no longer be a gambler. You practice for hours every week to perfect your shot and become consistent. After a while you achieve some consistency and decide to take your game to the casino.

At that point you must be selective about the tables you play and the conditions surrounding that table. So now you have found a table where you want to play a session. You buy in and watch other players throw the dice. While waiting for the dice to come to you, you start making bets on others. Those bets that you make are Fire Bets, or All Tall Small(ATS). And you also decide make some place bets, let’s say $44 inside or $40 outside.

Then the dice come to you. You now make your Fire Bet, or your ATS, and a Pass Line bet with no odds. After you set your point, you place $220 inside and regress to $44 inside after one or two hits. Oh, and you bet the Hardways for $5 each and keep them up for the entirety of your hand. Don’t forget see a horn, bet a horn. And you hop your point every roll.

My question is this. Are you truly an AP, or are you a gambler? Answer – YOU ARE A GAMBLER!

AP’s play a game that they can beat and put the money out when the advantage is theirs.

I don’t care how good of a Controlled Toss that you have, you can’t beat high house edge bets. Much less, beat these bets when a random roller is throwing.

Let’s look at the house edges you are bucking with the bets that I described.

You can’t beat those house edges if you bet them consistently on yourself, much less on someone that does not have a practiced shot.

What kind of advantage do you have with your SRR? Here are your edges for various SRR’s.

So even with a huge 8.0 SRR, you can’t beat the Hardways, Any Craps, Hops, World, Fire, Horn, or ATS. With an SRR of 7, you can’t beat the 5 & 9 place bets. But you can beat the Pass Line with Odds, and the Come bet with Odds with a SRR as low as 6.5. So, if my SRR is 8, why would I want to give up 4% of my theoretical win by placing the 5 & 9 which have a 4% House Edge.

Regression plays are a bad idea. If you have an edge, why would you reduce your bet size without some change in playing conditions? Blackjack AP’s would never reduce their bet size when the "count" goes up. If I am throwing well, the "count" is always up. So, regression plays do not make any sense.

Player Edge for Pass Line/Come Bets

You can see how much your edge improves when you maximize your odds. Why would you want to bet anything other than Pass Line and Come Bets?

I am an Advantage Player. I have a practiced shot that is very consistent. I only play in good conditions on a table surface that I have practiced for. I do not make bets with high house edges. I am a Pass Line and Come bet player exclusively. Since I have gone to this betting strategy, my wins and frequency of wins, have gone way up. Conversely, my frequency of losses, and the amount of those losses has been reduced dramatically.

So take a look at your game and ask yourself this important question. Am I truly an Advantage Player?

NFF

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