Craps

Flat bet versus Parlay

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Happy Holiday season to one and all, and best wishes for 2018.

After my primer class in Oct, I have been able to bring myself totally on board the Come bet bandwagon as being the way to go rather than Place betting. There is one portion of play from my Pre-GTC experience that I have a hard time letting go of and I am curious to hear what others are thinking.

Based on a book I had once read, I am a big fan of the come out roll since it’s the one time the 7 is working for me rather than against me. To that end, when a seven (or 11) is thrown, I would parlay my winnings up to two additional times so a $10 bet is now $40 for a an $80 payout on that original $10 bet.

I have been trying to incorporate it into my practice play such as letting the parlay stand as it’s own bet and picking up an additional Come bet since my original investment is only the original $10 on the parlay. The HA is 1.41%, which is better than a 6/8 Place bet, but it also only pays even money.

In the primer class, Dom would say you win more by losing less. I feel this fulfills that line of thinking, but I also feel like I may be missing something.

Thoughts?


Replies:

Posted by: JawBones on December 29, 2017, 8:05 pm

Hi Wirenut. Welcome to the wonderful world of come betting!

If I understand your post correctly, you are placing $10 on the pass line. If a 7 or 11 is thrown, you parlay the bet so that your pass line bet is now $20 and you will do this up to a line bet of $40. If that is correct, I think you would be better off keeping your line bet at the table minimum and placing max odds where there is no house advantage. If you are already playing max odds, why not simply rack the win?

JB

Posted by: Wirenut on December 29, 2017, 8:20 pm

You are correct. I am attempting to take full advantage of a shooter throwing the 7 on the come out. I’m thinking that it’s kind of a way of having your cake and eating it too. You have a small amount invested, but are able to stretch the bankroll to cover another box number via a Come bet.

I had used it beforehand and I always liked the play. If a shooter gets on a run of 7 or 11, it can stack up quickly for as little as a $10 bet.

My hangup is that I have no problem doing my own thing, but I am certainly no trailblazer. Translation, if it was such a good play, you’d see more people doing it. It seems too simple that I feel like I must be missing something in my thinking.

Posted by: JawBones on December 29, 2017, 9:24 pm

Makes sense but also remember there is a pretty good chance you might see that 2, 3 or 12 and you lose all of it. In the final analysis, Craps is a game we play because we enjoy it. If you like that play, do it.

Hope to see you at a table one day.

Posted by: NofieldFive on December 29, 2017, 10:32 pm

Wirenut,

Unless you are going to take full odds on that passline bet, it is not a good play. If you are doing this on anyone but you, it is a terrible play. And if you are doing it on yourself and not setting for 7 then it is the worst play you can make without taking full odds.

NFF

Posted by: Finisher on December 30, 2017, 12:10 pm

I have seen many do this but have seen more loose their money then making more . You do need the BR to do the full odds or it is not good .I go by the min with what ever odds you can afford . If you think that 7 is going to come again hop it with the 11 or the world . 😀 😀
I never set for 7s but some do and with come bets that’s not good . If you hop the 7 you still put money in your rack and need less in odds for your flat bet . IF you win you get paid more then if you had parlayed it .Just some food for thought . With a little less risk . (Maybe )
I have seen a lot of players do this but then they dont take full odds or loose it all .That can add up fast if the 7 comes fast .
One time I threw 17 numbers before I set the point number so I do throw a little different then most and Never set for 7s . I also never parlay even when a dealer says you know how much money I Would have made IF I had done that .
Its your money so play the way that is BEST for you . 🙂
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

Posted by: Dr Crapology on December 30, 2017, 12:39 pm

Wirenut, toward the end of your post you say "the HA (on the come bet I assume) is 1.41%, which is better that a 6/8 place bet (which is 1.5%), but it pays better." This is true but the HA in terms of dollars, there is a big difference. Example: assume a $10 come bet on the 6/8 with $50 in odds vrs a $60 place bet on the 6/8. The come bet will cost your $.14 on the $10 flat bet and $.0 on the odds for a total cost of $.14. However the placing of the 6/8 will cost your 1.5% on the entire $60 for a total cost of $.90.

Skinny I know there is a little difference as you explained in an earlier post but the point is that there is a very large difference between the two methods of betting.

Just my $.02 worth.

Doc

Posted by: Wirenut on December 30, 2017, 3:14 pm

I think I need to do a better job of explaining this. It’s much easier to play/describe on a table then it is to describe in a forum, but I will do my best.

First, let me say, since my primer class, I only throw the hardways set, I throw no other set, not even the all 7’s set. I am not trying to throw 7’s. I am playing within the normal flow of the game and taking what the dice give me. Before my GTC experience, I had one session where I tossed nine naturals, both 7 and 11, consecutively. I wasn’t trying to throw them, it was just how the dice were finishing. In that circumstance, I had a number of hits.

I will attempt to give two scenarios, both of them I will be the shooter, although scenario 2 could apply to a RR that has completed the 5-count.

Scenario 1: $10 PL bet. A 2, 3, 12, Craps. Any box number becomes the point and it would be a standard Come/Max odds wager. A 7 or 11, take the winnings and stack them on your bet. If that happens, you have a $20 bet for another come out roll. A second 7 or 11, you now have $40 PL, any box number and you have a $20 or 40 wager with only an original $10 out of your bankroll, and this gives me the option of going for a third Come bet and four numbers covered while I am trying to set the table and pick up a few hits.

Scenario 2: works similar, except all the action is on the Come bar and now 7 is against you. $10 come bet, any box number is come bet/ max odds, 2, 3, 12, is a loss. An 11 allows you to stack the winnings, shooter rolls a second 11 and now you won 3-1 return on your bet. Even a 7 would give you 3-1 even while the hand is ended. Any point established becomes the Come bet point and you play no odds (odds are in the stack you built through hitting 7 and 11’s).

In these two scenarios, hitting 7 or 11 at certain times in a hand, allows to me use winnings to help build my chips. I love the come out roll because it’s the one time the 7 is on my side in a hand.. I am attempting to take full advantage of the most commonly thrown number being on my side by placing my wager on the outcome. Yes, it would only pay even money, but if you hit one parlay, you’re now at 3-1. A second hit, now give you 7-1. The odds are there, they just aren’t obvious and after two parlays, I would go back to my $10 bet.

Admittedly, there is still a tiny bit of gambler left in me, but i would be able to maximize my bankroll by having four box numbers covered rather than just three numbers for nothing more than an additional $10 wager from my rail.

Posted by: Wirenut on December 30, 2017, 3:27 pm

I am sure there are flaws in this. Not everyone can be handsome and brilliant, so I chose handsome. Hahaha

Skinny, show me the way.

Posted by: Dominator on January 4, 2018, 4:27 pm

Here is the thing on parleying that passline bet – Most people think that a parley on a $10 passline to $20 and losing that bet is only losing the original $10
WRONG! When you won your $10 that is YOUR MONEY! When you lose the parley you are losing YOUR $20.

Same thing when people say they are playing with house money – WRONG – We practice hard to win and when you do it is YOUR MONEY

So if you want to parley, go ahead, but remember it is your money

Dom

Posted by: Skinny on January 4, 2018, 11:13 pm

I certainly agree strongly with Dom. You are unnecessarily putting YOUR money at risk when you parlay and that is the biggest reason for not doing it.

But there are a few other things that come to mind also. I am guessing you are at 5X tables in AC so when you say have a $10 line bet with max odds I believe you mean $50 in odds. I also suspect if you parlay your line bet up to $40 you still take $50 in odds rather than $200 which would be max at 5X odds. Now let’s look at the difference in these two wagers.

A $10 line bet with $50 in odds has a House Advantage of 0.326%.
A $40 line bet with $50 in odds has a House Advantage of 0.771%.

So not only did you put more of YOUR money at risk, you increased the house edge against you by over 2.3 times.

Now here is another point I thought of when I read your post. You said you use the hardways set exclusively. As an aside, I do the same thing. I want to make money by repeating numbers with max odds and pushing the house on three unit line bets. Collecting a line bet is a very small win in comparison to hitting a number. I am not very interested in winning line bets. I want to keep the dice on axis so I never want to see a 6 or 1 appear. If I start having a lot of 6-5 or 6-1 rolls, I get concerned that my throw is off and I am doing something wrong. I try to figure it out and correct it immediately.

You say you play within the normal flow of the game and take what the dice give you. That is the exact opposite of what we are trying to do. We want to disrupt the normal flow of the game by throwing repeating numbers over and over again. We want to avoid throwing craps and natural numbers. And we do not want the dice to give us anything. We want to control the dice and make them do what we want them to do.

Does any of this make any sense to you and does it help?

Posted by: brothelman on January 5, 2018, 7:02 am

All I know is a fat person can go on a diet! An ugly person will always be ugly and god did not like you if he made you ugley and dumb!
Common sense is not so common and most people do not know the difference between sheep dip and mar buckles coffee and,
then there is Skinny and math there is not a better person for the job!

Posted by: JawBones on January 5, 2018, 12:57 pm

Skinny that was an excellent reply. As always in this game, the math doesn’t lie. The gambler in us wants to constantly tweak things like betting to try to squeeze a bit more from the casino and satisfy that gambler’s urge. If we just simply play Pass and Come bets with odds (and the Big Skinny is as good a way to do it as there is), practice until we truly have a proven edge (SRR of greater than or equal to 6.23 with at least 5,000 recorded rolls) and play within the limits of our 401g we WILL be successful.

Thank you for all the input you and Dom and all the true Masters of our craft provide in this forum.