When you look at the house advantage it is much worse on the Fire than it is on the STA bet. Of course it is bad for either wager and not one that you should be making, but you already know that.

The HA on the Fire is 20.76%.

The HA on the ST is 7.76% when the payoff is 34-1.
The HA on the A is 7.47% when the payoff is 175-1.

Now let’s look at the probability of winning each bet.

Only about 0.88 percent of the time will a shooter make four different points. Looking at it another way, only once in about 113 attempts will a shooter make four different points and for this accomplishment fire bet participants are paid a whopping 25-for-1.

Continuing, about 0.16 percent of the time will a shooter complete five different points. This works out to once in every about 610 attempts that fire bet players will win 250-for-1.

And finally, only about 0.016 percent of the time will a shooter complete all six different points. An event that happens about once every 6,156 times is paid by the casino at a rate of 1,000-for-1. No wonder the casinos love this bet.

As for the Small and Tall both have a probability of winning of 2.64 percent, or about 1 in 38 and it pays 25 for 1.

The All wager has a probability of winning of 0.53%, or about 1 in 190 with a payout of 176 for 1.

So from a probability standpoint you have a better chance of winning the STA than the Fire. But then the Fire does pay a lot more money when you win it. However, you can still expect to lose more money when betting the Fire because the payouts are much worse in relation to the true probabilities of winning than the payouts for the STA.

If you look at the payouts for each wager in relation to the probability of winning it you should see why you will lose more with the Fire.

Skinny, thanks for taking the time to do the math on this and explaining to even the most math challenged player (me) how bad the bet is on these "prop" bets.

Although I don’t know the math, as a general rule, all the prop bets on any table game such as $1,000,000 in Three Card Poker, Fortune Bet at Pai Gow, any "special" bet at BJ, etc, always has a much higher vig than the basic game. Rose and I avoid them.

Doc

Skinny does all this math take into account the 7 that will come on come out rolls were you loose the STA bet and your fire bet goes on . Since we try to throw all box numbers and repeaters . Thanks for the in put it seems there are more trying these bets .
When the dealers ask if I want a fire I say that if I make one point I will be happy . 😀
That stops them from asking any more .
I reread your post about the other bet and think I will give it a try but with a little difference then you stated . I will get my one dollar back first and press the rest .Then there is no loss out of my rack to speak of . You did the math for the high roller but not for shy guys like me . I don’t remember rolling more then 3 hardways in a roll so I would be happy with 3 wins . Most of the time I stay away from the hard ways .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

Yes, the math takes into account the come out 7 for both the Fire and STA.

But the math is based on a random roller with an SRR of 6.0

It would be different for a controlled shooter with a higher SRR.

Even with a good SRR, these are still bad bets to make.

"Skinny" wrote: Yes, the math takes into account the come out 7 for both the Fire and STA.

But the math is based on a random roller with an SRR of 6.0

It would be different for a controlled shooter with a higher SRR.

Even with a good SRR, these are still bad bets to make.

First, I’ll note that I do indeed bet the STA with 2/2/2 on myself and known shooters, rarely on CFers. Fire I do 2 on myself only. I’ve hit STA plenty of times and to Finisher, on my last one in AC, it was on a roll of 50 with a come out devil on roll 23. I still put my 2/2/2 back up and it really paid off. I usually hit one side in the mid-teens.

To Skinny’s note on this being on a random roller, I do note that we SHOULD NOT hit the STA, especially when throwing the hardway set. Hitting the 2/12 requires the dice to end one click to the left and one click to the right. It happens on a mistake! But of course, I make plenty of mistakes, so I bet it and (un)fortunately win it often enough!

Skinny I know of no where that the pay off on the ats is 176 and 35 it is now 31 and 151 for 1 how much does that change the house edge?

+1 on Bman’s post!

I much prefer the Fire Bet, since it is a reward for throwing correctly and allows 7s on come out rolls.

But I’ll also make the STA. I’ll bet $5 or $10, just to make the reward worthwhile.

But, I don’t make the bet just to make money. I primarily make the bet to help me gauge my rolls. I can’t keep track of rolls, myself, very well. My focus is on the roll I’m about to make. So, either bet helps me in that regard. And, when there are more than 3 people at the table, either bonus bets keeps me focused while waiting for the dice.

For example, if I make 3 points, but then hit 2 craps numbers in a row, the 2 off rolls leave me frustrated. But if I have either bonus bet going, off rolls like that don’t bother me at all, except to consider why one dice was off. That’s what I mean by, "keeps me focused". For me, it’s a mind thing.

I only make those bets on myself.

"brothelman" wrote: Skinny I know of no where that the pay off on the ats is 176 and 35 it is now 31 and 151 for 1 how much does that change the house edge?

The HA on the ST is 18.30% when the payoff is 30-1 or it could be expressed as 31 for 1.
The HA on the A is 20.61% when the payoff is 150-1 or it could be expressed as 151 for 1.

Wow! Puts it right up there with the Firebet as far as HA. I suppose that was the point for the casinos. Thanks Mr Math! 😉

Bman I think they have the 175 to 1 pay at the casino you go to in Laughlin now .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂