Very well done, Dom.

A rational individual will not argue with the math!

One only needs to check my tagline at the end of my posts to know where I stand.

First off I wish that Trump would trust the math like you do .
I have tried both ways of betting and still do both at times .I some times prefer place betting because it is not a contract bet and I can take them down and leave at any time .Since most of the time I have no pass line bet or DP bet this done easy .
I have made a bet on the 8 and stayed with it for 42 rolls before a win with 4 rollers including myself . I did make come bets on my roll to make money but lost on that 8 bet .I also have made one come bet and saw the roll go into the teens and twenties with a loss also .
Craps can be Unforgiving at times .I just bet how I feel it will work better for me .
In a past post that I am sure you read I told of a roll that I had were I only come bet and I made less then ALL the other players at the table including the DP and DC player . All the players at the table loved my roll that when my wife came to get me to eat they ALL said noway . Including the Don’t .
So it depends on how the game is going .I just hated the come out 7 but the DC player did not mind at all and even spoke to me later in the roll .I think back and lost 7 TO 9 TIMES ON THOSE COME OUT 7S .I did bet on the 7 after I lost my come bets 3 times . It was a good roll and I made some money but not like everybody else at the table .
I just hate when you never get to On and Off on come bets . But do love when they come up on rolls early .
It is your money and I doubt that Dom started betting the way he does when he first started .This is a learning Journey that we a on .Just think not long ago the doey dont system was GREAT . 😀 😀 😀
Good Rolling. 😀 😀 🙂 😉

Garrison’s knowledge is off a bit as well. The break even is based on 3x4x5x, not 5x across. And he obviously doesn’t get around much. Odds in Many places are higher than 5x. In Chicago area, you’d be hard pressed to find less than 20x, with several at 100x.

I absolutely agree with the math, understand it, etc. But I, like Finisher, am a place bettor, primarily for the reason that I tend to spread hits across the box and using TBS come betting, I’m usually behind because of that. I have tried month long side-by-side comparisons and only once did TBS come out ahead at any point during the month, but in the end, place betting ON MY ROLLS was better. I agree that for most shooters who have more accuracy and the repeats come quicker, come betting would be on top.

May profitable rolls come (or place) your way!

Don

Dom when your skill set was not as good as it is now did you make come bets ?
Good Rolling. 😀 😀

For me, if I had been come betting for the entirety of the last 17 years that I have been doing the dice influencing thing, I would be very much further ahead than I am now.

Since I have gone to exclusively Come Betting, I am making more return on my investment than ever. The math of the game wins out!

Don, you have a good shot. If you are losing money on Come betting, I would argue that you may have too much exposure early in the hand.

Finisher, those with a diminished skill set should absolutely be Come Betting to lower the house edge. They should be limiting the exposure to one or two bets and be racking at least 3 hits before increasing the odds or spreading to an additional bet.

I might add that Skinny is the only person I know who has never modified his betting. He has always done Passline and Come bets, so he walks the walk of his Tag Line.

NFF

I have to say that the math takes a lot of the romance out of this game. But, the math never lies. I sure agree with you NFF. I have been guilty of getting too far out in front of the dice with my betting. I will be going to Vegas soon and will be using this to simply try and come away a winner. I am going to practice trying to control my betting more closely, hold on to what I have and let the opportunities come to me. I know it is easy and I also know how small the margins are. Being methodical is not what I had once pictured but my thinking has changed. Thanks for the post.

You got my attention when you said 20X odds. I wanted to see how that would impact the house edge at different SRR’s.

For the random player (SRR = 6.0) the House Advantage (HA) when you place the 5 or 9 is -4.00%. The minus means the HA is in favor of the house, against the player.
For the random player the HA when you place the 6 or 8 is -1.52%.
At 20X odds the HA for a random player is -0.10%, less than one tenth of a percent against the player. This is basically an even game.

The random player is bucking a -4% HA with a place bet on the 5 or 9 and -1.52% HA with a place bet on the 6 or 8 vs. a negligible HA when making pass line and come bets at 20X odds.

For a controlled shooter with an SRR of 6.5, a place bet on the 5 or 9 has a HA of +1.54%. The plus means the HA is now in favor of the player instead of the house.
For a controlled shooter with an SRR of 6.5, a place bet on the 6 or 8 has a HA of +3.62%.
At 20X odds the HA for a shooter with an SRR of 6.5 is +5.43%.

For a controlled shooter with an SRR of 7.0, a place bet on the 5 or 9 has a HA of +6.67%.
For a controlled shooter with an SRR of 7.0, a place bet on the 6 or 8 has a HA of +8.33%.
At 20X odds the HA for a shooter with an SRR of 7.0 is +10.54%.

For a controlled shooter with an SRR of 7.5, a place bet on the 5 or 9 has a HA of +11.43%.
For a controlled shooter with an SRR of 7.5, a place bet on the 6 or 8 has a HA of +12.67%.
At 20X odds the HA for a shooter with an SRR of 7.5 is +15.29%.

Skinny last post on this brought to mind the thought that one thing that was missing from being state in Dom’s original exchange as posted in this thread.

The original post uses the math for a CHer, not a DI. A good DI has hopefully several hundred throws some in practice and some from actual casino throws. As this last post by Skinny shows the difference varies based on the DIer SSR and as small a difference as SRR as small as 6.5 makes a difference.

Noah

Love that this post is getting activity and views. It is important.

Finisher and Don, Daryl’s advice to you is spot on. If a skill level isn’t where it needs to be then for sure come betting is the way to go!

To answer your question about if I was a come player when I started. The answer is no. I was about 75% place player and 25% come. I changed completely about 10 years ago when I broke my ankle and couldn’t put any weight on it at the tables. On my first trip to a casino after the accident I decided to be a come player because I really didn’t know how I was going to shoot and I wanted to make the lowest house edge bets I could. Stupid right – I knew that come bets had the lowest house edge, but I was still a place player. WHAT AN IDIOT! 😀 . And I also decided to use the hardway set exclusively because I wanted the most protection against the 7. Again – WHAT AN IDIOT! I knew that hardway and come betting were the best but I didn’t use them exclusively before this accident!

Well my shot was all over the board meaning I was hitting all sorts of numbers and repeating them. The Goddess was at the table with me along with others and she always keep track of the rolls. I had a 72 hand roll and made a ton of money! A pure come player was born that day!

Daryl, Billy, and I say in our seminars so many times that we have tried it all when it comes to betting and we learned from our mistakes and we try so very hard to convince you all to not make those mistakes. MY 401G would be much bigger now if I was always a come player.

BTW – As Daryl said, Skinny was always a come player because he never questioned the math

Dom

PS Look for another give and take I had this morning with Garrison about the 5-count

Dom This is a journey and GTC makes it a little easier with all of the knowledge given on this site along with HELP.
Good Rolling.

Dom, your post is very timely and ironical. For the past few days since our recent trip to Vegas we have been composing a post on Pass line/Come Betting vs. Place/Buy betting. We were planning to post today so here you go:

While on a recent trip to the casino Doc and Rose got to thinking about come betting vs. place betting—particularly placing the 6 and 8. Here is our analysis–all percentages are rounded:
Here are the assumptions that we used:
A $10 table with max odds of 5 times
The vig on the Pass Line/Come bet is 1.4%
The vig on the 6 or 8 place bets 1.5%

It appears that the vig is about the same or certainly very close to the same. BUT is this a correct assumption dollar wise? We all know that the odds bring down the percentage on the entire P/C bets when the odds are added to the bet, BUT how about the amount of money on the following assumed bets. Let’s look at the $$$ and not the %.

Pass Line/ come bet of $10 has a 1.4% of $.14. It is always 14 cents regardless of the amount of odds taken. If we add $50 in odds the amount at risk is $60 but the vig is still only $.14 ($10 x .014=$.14). Odds have no house edge. And we have the advantage of 2 to1 on the first roll of the dice.
If we place the 6 and/or 8 for $60 (the exact same amount of money wagered) the percentage as stated above is 1.5% or $.90 ($60 x .015=$.90)—a really big difference!!! When we gave this some thought, it was a really big eye opener for us–$.14 vs $.90. WOW!!

And remember the placing of the 6 and/or 8 is working on the first roll of the dice after the bet is placed. While with the pass line/come bet, as we have stated above, the advantage of 2 to 1 on the first roll of the dice before the advantage turns in favor of the casino when a box number is established as the point. The 2 to 1 advantage on the first roll as well as the power of the 7 is lost if we place bet.

Rose and Doc have been placing the 6 and 8 as we simply hate it when we establish a point of 4, 5, 9 or 10 and the second or third roll is a 6 or 8 and we miss a pay day. Believe us, we have lost the established point as well as the 6 and the 8 many times before any pay days. Remember we are in this for the long run and it simply doesn’t make sense to do anything but pass line/come bets. Yes we may miss a pay day or two on the 6 and/or 8 but it will only be 1 miss on each number. We are in it for the long run.

Remember this concept works for all the box numbers that might be placed or bought, any amount of odds taken, or the amount of your pass line / come bet.
As NFF says, on the shorter rolls you want to lose less or make a little so that you will have chips in the rail and be at the table when the good roll comes.
Just some food for thought that we felt might help many of the great GTC members as they become a part of Dom’s 10%.
All comments pro and con are welcomed—Skinny??? Hope using dollars instead of percentages will help many see the math advantage of come and pass line betting and how it actually affects your bank roll.

Rose and Doc

PS—Would hope that Garrison (whoever he is) reads all of the thread and will change his thoughts.

 

And so "the math didn’t work for me the last time, and the time before that,
and … but didn’t it, too, once or twice work back there? … "
Silly me, there is that nagging thing in the back of my mind called VARIANCE.
Variance, yes, it shows up in the short term. We’ve all seen it.
Sometimes it’s frustrating, sometimes we get lucky. Looking random?

But boss, the math is for the Looooonngg term. No?
Didn’t some wisecrack say in the long term we’re all DEAD?
Can we throw dice from the prone position? Anyone? LOL

"SevenTimesSeven" wrote:
Can we throw dice from the prone position? Anyone? LOL

Not2soon shoots from the prone position. But of course he is very much alive. Does that still count? 😆 😆 😆

Doc,

I really like your example. The bottom line is money so using that as the example is a great idea!

I don’t mean to sound nerdy but for a fair comparison you can’t use $60 for the place bet because you don’t bet $60 on the PL/CB each time. 1/3 of the time one only wagers $10 with a PL/CB (1/3 X $10 = $3.33) and 2/3 of the time one wagers $60 when you take odds (2/3 X $60 = $40). That averages out to $43.33 per PL/CB wager. The loss is still the same $.14 for each wager because the base bet of $10 loses 1.41% or $.14 regardless of odds or not.

If we place the 6 and/or 8 for $43.33 (the exact same amount of money wagered on the PL/CB) the percentage as stated above is 1.52% or $.66 ($43.33 x .0152=$.66)— which is still a really big difference!!! –$.14 vs $.66. WOW!!

The end result is the random player can expect to lose 4.7 times more with a place bet of the 6 and/or 8 versus a PL/CB with 5X odds.

Great observation Skinny. Thanks for taking the time to complete our analysis. You always get ti right.

Rose and Doc

It has only been a couple of months since starting this dice control journey so I thought it was time to try it out at the casino and Dom you are so right, my skills absolutely are not where I want them so I strictly did come betting and not my old place betting. I had three different times with the dice and the first two were establish the point and seven out which as a come better meant I didn’t lose any money, the third roll was about 20 numbers so that was good…I am a believer in come betting for sure !!!!!

Brywood, we are so glad that you had the very nice 20 roll. Rose and Doc hope to see you in the casino many times in the future. Be sure to come to a GTC class weekend in the future. Looks like you can become part of Dom’s 10%.

Rose and Doc

Brywood – Welcome!

Like you and what Doc did, I wish that all on this site would just it – use place bets and at the same time come bets. I know that most would come out better if they did

Dom

I have to agree with Dom and many of you on this board. I play in Canada and not many craps tables available in the casino’s I play at. Generally, I play at non peak hours or days of the week, so most have only one table open at a time. In my last four trips to the casino’s, I have strictly used come betting with full odds and this strategy has helped me a lot. I also used to place bet the six and eight from the start only to have it wiped out with a quick seven out. Now I stick to two come bets and my pass line bet with odds after the five count has been established. Thank you, to all GTC, following the math of the game is the correct way to play.

Cmcierra

"Cmcierra" wrote: following the math of the game is the correct way to play.

Cmcierra

Music to my ears. I wish everyone would heed your words for their own sake AND BANKROLL.

What i really like about the come betting is that When using the 5 count, I say about 7 of 9 times on random shooters i get a win because they tend to 7 out just as I set my initial come bet on the table. So i win $5 when placing the come bet out. And if the shooter rolls more, then I have an even better chance of winning on the come bet because he/she is on a roll and have a even better chance of hitting the come bet with odds. With this method I always seem to be one of most people being at the tables longer than other people. Now the other players that stay there as long or even longer than me are the ones that are forking out more and more money. So with all this been said, I’m sticking the come bet.

Skinny,

When you calculate HA on come bet with 20x odds with an SRR of 6.5, do you account for the fact that you roll ~1 less 7 per 72 rolls? Since the power of the come bet vs place is when it is originally placed, I imagine a 6.5 SRR has to have an impact.

With come betting all you need is a 6.23 SRR to have an edge

Dom

"sevenout" wrote: Skinny,

When you calculate HA on come bet with 20x odds with an SRR of 6.5, do you account for the fact that you roll ~1 less 7 per 72 rolls? Since the power of the come bet vs place is when it is originally placed, I imagine a 6.5 SRR has to have an impact.

At 20X odds with an SRR of 6.5 the player would have a positive house advantage of 5.43%.

The dice does not know if you have 20 x odds or 100 . Just saying each roll is independent from the last roll .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

"Finisher" wrote: The dice does not know if you have 20 x odds or 100 . Just saying each roll is independent from the last roll .
Good Rolling. 😀 🙂

Yes, da dice don’t know nothin.
But da math, da math!
And remember the math applies to the long run.
– same bet repeated, repeated, repeated in the long run, the loooong run.
The long run, when we are all dead.

Dom is correct,

Come betting with 5Xs odds is the best. I am a show me kind of person, so I need to perform simulations and experiments. I gave myself a make believe bankroll of $3000 and simulated that I was at a $10 table with 5X Odds (AC). And I never busted the bank at over 200 session simulations, each session never went over 10 hands.

This is what I do. Comments are welcome.

I would put up 3 bets ($600 is the session budget) my hand spread budget is ($180)
1st bet = $10 PL with $50 Odds
2nd and 3rd bet $10 Come with $50 Odds

I would use two counters one is called the hit counter and the other the hand counter during a session
Hit counter rules.

When the hit counter reaches 5 I add another come bet
Counting rules: (I use chips to count. I use a shinny large quarter to use as a place holder to represent the .5 on the rack)

+1 if I hit a 6/8
+1.5 if I hit a 5/9
+2 if I hit a 4/10

Hand Counter is +1 when ever I seven out

Session Ends if any of the following is true:

1) The hand spread budget ($180) can not be covered.
2) The hand count reaches 10
3) I feel that I have a big enough win > +200

* I like this approach as I have a natural stop limit loss when the session budget reached below (180) or hand count = 10.

08/19/2017 – Wanted to share more about come.
I was at a PA casino in PA they do the 3-4-5 x odds.. I put 3x odds on all bets and used the same hit counter rules. Except I only put two bets out initially the PL and one come bet. I lasted 10 hands and walked away with a 21% gain of my buy-in. Maybe a question for another thread, does anyone have a percentage that they use to walk away ? Btw, those place betters were getting wiped out left and right (buying in for more) I was still playing with the same buy-in.

-Mr PiP

I am having difficulty accepting Come betting. If I do not Place the 6 & 8, I am killing myself. I tend to makes lots of 6’s and 8’s. I will go up a unit or more after any combination of three hits. I will frequently have 180 to 240 after a $60 place bet, i.e., 60 (3 hits) then 90, 120,180, etc. Having my come bet going up and down will cost me.

When I first started my journey with GTC I was a place bettor. Probably because I didn’t know any better. The last couple of years I have been a solid convert to the "Big Skinny". My 401 G is testament to the power of come betting, plus I think it is a more fun way to play the game.

Continuous betting of the come bet keeps your bets up and working. Also any come bet on a seven out gets some.

Cmcierra

I will submit more of a reply to this once I have had time to read the whole thread. Perhaps the answer to my question is in this thread.

Dom said, "I don’t want nor do I have the time to go back and forth with anyone that doesn’t understand math."

I read that and immediately went to GTC store to look for a book on how to understand the math behind craps. This is something that I would really like to study and learn. I am actually pretty good at math but I have to take time and figure these things out. I guess I do not understand the formulas to figure out the percentages on different bets on the craps table.

Would anyone be so kind as to point me in the direction of being able to find the data I need to start doing the calculations.

Thanks,

Jason

Hi Jason

You could start with the thread that is just up on Betting on a RR , viewtopic.php?f=5&t=10752

IMHO Skinny make the math simple

Dom