I know that in class that we often refer to dice control as an athletic event (which it is) similar to baseball and that we are 300 hitters.
Doc took the liberty of doing a little research to see how this stands. I got these numbers from Baseball reference.com. I only used 2 samples–Mickey Mantle (which I knew Dom, a yankee fan, would love) and Hank Arron. I know this is a small sample but I am willing to bet it holds true for other great hitters. Both are excellent players who were the super stars of their era. Here is what I found:
Mickey Mantle
At bats——- 8102
Hits————2415
Home runs—–536
His was a little shorter career that Hammering Hank but here is how the percentages work out.
Percentage of times he went to bat and got to first base or further 30% (2415 divided by 8102). On 70% of his times at bat he struck out, hit a fly ball, got thrown out at first, etc. In MLB walks are not considered at bats.
Percentage of times he went to bat and got a home run was 7% (536 divided by 8102).
Hammering Hank
At bats——-12,364
Hits————-3,771
Home runs——-775
Percentage of times he went to bat and got to first base or further 30% (3771 divided by 12,364).
Percentage of time at bat that he got a home run 6% (755 divided by 12,364).
These percentages may not look that good but they are outstanding.
These were two of the best hitters in baseball and hold or held many records for many years. AND these guys were paid a lot of money to perform there skill. Yet they were paid big money for the ability to get on base (only??) 30% of the time and hit a home run 7% and 6% of the time.
I compare monster rolls (which we might define as 40) to baseball’s home run. We know both are fun and most profitable, but where we need to make money (and lose less) is on the short to medium rolls (singles, doubles and triples) by betting the GTC way, not getting greedy so we have some $$$ in the rack to take advantage of the long rolls. We need to make money (lose less /make more) on the short to medium rolls. This is what NO FIELD FIVE and DOM preacher in all the classes. So use the five count and make the low house edge bets.
Hope all of you find this interesting. I welcome all comments pro and con.
Doc
PS–it is great to be retired with both the time and desire to think up crazy ideas like this.
Replies:
Posted by: JawBones on May 18, 2017, 6:26 pm
What a great analogy and research to make a point. That puts a things in a great perspective. We all are always hoping/expecting to throw monster hands in the 30’s and 40’s at least once every time we play. The reality is that is not going to happen.
I believe it is No Field Five that says we have to learn to make money on our short rolls, the 10-15 roll hands and to lose as little as possible on the shorter hands. This screams loudly for the PL/CB method of betting taught by GTC.
Great work. Hope to belly up to a table with you and Rose in the near future.
Posted by: Hot Shot on May 18, 2017, 11:28 pm
"JawBones" wrote: Doc.
We all are always hoping/expecting to throw monster hands in the 30’s and 40’s at least once every time we play. The reality is that is not going to happen.
I myself don’t care about monster rolls and I don’t like when I roll them to be honest. I get the damn pit boss hovering making me nervous, and people come out of no where like roaches. No idea where they come from, but they just appear out of no where creating a mine field in the landing zone or sticking their hands down when you toss the dice or buying in at the wrong time. I’ve had rolls hit all the way into a 60 in the past, but who cares? Get lucky and shoot something like that once in a great while means very little to me. I care about consistency.
I want to see back, to back, to back hands. meaning If I roll an ok hand then screw up the next few and then get a good one again then I’m not happy with that at all. If I can throw consistently around 12-18 or so I’m happy. I can make money with that. I don’t need 20+ every time.
Posted by: Dr Crapology on May 19, 2017, 11:19 am
I do think a little different from Hot Shot, and I quote, "if I have a long roll I don’t care", because Rose and Doc do care. We love the long roll when it does occur. It is fun, exciting and profitable. But he is right on in that consistency with the short and medium rolls where we need to lose less and make more—AND consistency is the key. Right on.
Doc
