Craps

Doc's variation of The Big Skinny (TBS)

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First of all the object of my variation of TBS is to 1) protect my bank roll and 2) make the bets with lowest possible house advantage (HA) or House Vig. The low house vigs I can overcome.

So I will be making only pass line bets (PL) and come bets (CB) with limited place bets on the 6 and 8. PL and CB have a 1.4% HA with placing of the 6 and 8 a 1.5% HA. I do hit a lot of box numbers and this works for me and one that my bank roll can handle.

I only consider the base PL bet and CB bets along with place bets to be at risk–they do have a negative house advantage that I feel I can overcome in the long run. I do not consider the odds bet to be at risk, since odds are an even money bet with no HA. The loss of an odds bet is simply a "temporary hit against the bank roll" and no matter how bad any given turn with the dice may be, in the long run the very least that can happen is I will break even. I do expect to do much better than break even on the odds bet in the long run. Always remember the casinos do not win from every player every time they play. BUT the house advantage will get the player in the long run. We are the casino with the long term advantage by playing in this manner.

With all of that said, here is how I actually proceed when it is my turn to roll assuming a $10 table with 10 times odds:

I make a $10 PL bet and take $50 in odds regardless the number hit for my point. If either a 6 or 8 is my point I place the other number for $60. If any outside number is my point, I place both the 6 and the 8 for $60 each. Then I’ll follow this up with a come bet until I have 4 numbers covered through the come line—3 numbers covered with come bets will do–but I do tend to hit a lot of box numbers and 4 works best for me. Although I use the hard way set I do hit a lot of 6’s and 8’s and more often than not I turn these place best into come bets pretty quick–not always but more often than not. Once I have 3 paydays in the rack It is peddle to the metal with a come bet on each and every roll of the dice.

Should I get to 4 bets through the come line and I still have a 6 or 8 still placed I will take that number down–especially if I only have 1 or 2 pay days in the rack.

From the get go with every payday I make a small increase in odds—usually $10. Examples:

Hit the 6 or 8–come or place bet–the payoff is $70. Put $60 in the rack and increase the odds by $10. Number is covered and in the rack with no profit. Remember I am protecting my bankroll. With the small increase I have a chance to get a head start on hitting some pressed numbers. Should I repeat the 6 or 8, my next increase will be $15 to get me to $75 in odds.

Hit the 5 or 9—the pay off is $85 so I increase the odds $10 and put $75 in the rack. Number covered with a $15 profit. Assuming this is my second payday I have 2 numbers covered and in the rack.

Hit the 4 or 10—the payday is $110 but here I do not increase my odds and put the $110 in the rack for a $50 profit.

My objective in the first 8 paydays is to slowly increase the inside numbers (5,6,8 and 9) to a payday of $100. I will put any $100 win in the rack until I have 8 wins in the chip rail for a nice profit.

On the 6 and 8 this requires 2 paydays as mentioned above–a $10 on the first payday and $15 on the second payday for a total of $75 in odds. At this point each payday on the 6 and 8 pays $100.

On the 5 and 9 only 1 payday is required as an increase of $10 increasing my odds to $60 and all future wins give a payday of $100.

On the 4 and 10 the first payday is $110 so no need to increase.

This is what I do during the first 8 paydays.

Now after 8 paydays I press 50% of a winning bet on each and every win. Not aggressive as some GTC’ers use, but for me doing the same thing on each and every win requires no thinking and is easy. You will be surprised at how fast your odds will increase and you get to Max odds of $100.

Should I have an extended roll and have reached max odds on a number I will begin to double dip by placing/buying 50% of a win on that same number.

Hope others on this board will read this and use TBS to his/her best advantage. Betting is indeed as important as learning the throw.

This betting program may not work for everybody but hopefully others will use TBS to their individual advantage.

I welcome all comments pro and con. Dom and Skinny your thoughts???

Doc


Replies:

Posted by: getagrip on December 16, 2016, 7:54 pm

Doc,

Nice explanation. Wish I played places with 10X odds as I like what you wrote. One question, working on the Come Out after a point is made? Why or why not? Thanks!

Posted by: Dr Crapology on December 17, 2016, 1:37 pm

To your question concerning working or not working on the come out roll—I never have my bets working on the come out roll with no exception. My reasoning is two fold:

1. When you make your point and are trying for a new point, one can relax a little as you can’t be hurt very much if the 7 appears, since your odds bets and place/buy bets are not working. Love putting those chips in the rack. Only the base come bets are working and lost if the appears. As Billy The Kid says, the come out 7 may a sign of what is to come in the roll as you might be getting tired. In a long roll a little relaxation can be good thing. Having a long roll in the 40’s, 50’s or higher can be tiring both mentally and physically.

2. Should you have all of your bets working on a come out roll with lots of odds and increased place bets, if you hit that dreaded 7 and lose all of those bets, it is a real shock to your ego AND you still have the dice. It can be hard come back. Yes you can come back, but is it worth it? We simply prefer to win only the $10 base come bet (and nothing if we have the 6 or 8 placed) and miss the one win on the odds. DON’T GET GREEDY. Remember we are in this for the long run.

We are toying with an idea that Finesse gave us several months ago (boy are we going to miss him)—if your dice have been looking good and on your first throw of a new hand you set a number and on the second throw that number is repeated for a win we might call that number on for the next come out roll, since we have only the one number working and we can’t be hurt much.

Lastly, let’s address when you don’t have a table with 10 times odds or even 5 times odds—3,4,5 odds for example. Perhaps the Vegas Strip where the 4 and 10 can be bought for $25 with the vig paid on wins only. Since you start with max odds, obviously you have no way to increase your odds. So we make small place bets by double dipping very early. Like you and everybody else, I hate the 4% house edge on the 5 and 9 and the 6.67% or placing the 4 and 10 for less than $25. The 4% on the 5 and 9 you have to live with or wait until you increase your base pass line/come bets. On the 4 and 10 make your increase with a buy bet on the second payday in $25 increments.

Once you have double dipped several numbers you can increase your base bet and as a number hits move all or some of the place/buy bets to the odds.

Hope that will be of some help.

Doc

Posted by: RFink13 on December 19, 2016, 4:47 am

Pressing the come bets already at max odds. Instead of placing a bet and double dipping, what I like to do is increase my come bet by $5 and play max odds on that. My usual progression is: $10 – 15- 25 – 35 – 50- 75 -100. I don’t start pressing until after 4 hits and only on the on and offs.

It was very nerve racking to have a $100 come bet with $500 odds on it, but it did pay nice.

Posted by: RFink13 on December 28, 2016, 4:37 am

Doc,

I’ve been playing (in practice) with your version of TBS and I like it better then what I’m using now Thanks,

Since my main casino only offers 5X odds, if I start out taking max odds, I guess I’ll be pressing with place bets.

Is that correct? The other option is to increase the flat portion of the come bet to allow for more odds.

Thanks again.

Posted by: Dr Crapology on December 30, 2016, 9:28 pm

Rfink,

Actually you can do a little of both. Rose and I usually increase our odds until max odds. If, as you do at your casino, you start at max (5 times) odds, make some small increases in place bets. I know the vig is high placing on the outside numbers (4% on the 5 and 9 with 6.67% on the 4 and 10) but a small bet, maybe $10, on these numbers,when both the come bet at max odds and the small place bet are averaged together the house vig is not so bad. Once you begin to have too much on these outside number place bets, you can increase your come bets and move all, or at the very least, some of the place bets to odds. I usually double my base come bet.

When you have these "double dips" you move the increased come base bet to the number you just hit, you probably have enough from the payday, the current odds and the place bet to cover the amount you need to have max odds on that number—maybe a little left over to retain a small place bet. And you keep going.

Hope this answers your question and will work for you in the casino.

Doc

Posted by: RFink13 on January 3, 2017, 4:12 am

One more question: If a shooter rolls a come-out seven and all of the come bets come crashing down, do you replace the 6 and 8?

During my practice session, I like to start over after a come-out seven so I do replace them or just leave them alone if they didn’t hit.

Thanks again,

Posted by: Dr Crapology on January 3, 2017, 12:32 pm

As usual it depends. First of all I always remember what Billy The Kid once said. "If you are into a good roll, make your point and then follow up with a come out 7, it may be an indication of what is to follow." In other words are you tired or have you developed a slight problem with your throw and you just might see a very quick 7 out.

After I set a point after a come out 7, I just might wait a couple of throws with come bets before I to back up on the 6 and 8 and if the throw looks good I will then placed the 6 an 8. Who knows the short "break" after the come out roll, where you can’t 7 out until a point is established, you just might still be on your game. I just don’t like to get greedy. Remember hogs get slaughtered but conservative pigs stay in the game. I may miss a pay day or two, but so what, I don’t worry about it as I don’t have as much $$$$ at risk. Remember how you feel and go with the flow–if you feel good to back up on the 6 and 8, if not wait a couple of throws. Your choice.

By the way if after a come out 7, if I have a few place bet dollars left on the a couple of box numbers, I leave them up. Should I hit one of them after the come out 7, the place bet and the pay day become my odds. If the dice are still looking real good I may also place/buy a couple of other box numbers for small dollars–again looking for small wins to become my odds bet without taking additional money out of the rack. Remember it all depends on how much risk you are willing to take. I don’t like high house vig so do this very lightly.

This may be a little more than you anticipated but hope it helps.

Doc

PS–Tried to send you a private message off the web page–did you receive it?

Posted by: HardNine on January 3, 2017, 2:21 pm

One thought on progression once reaching the max odds; most casinos would allow a put. Assuming that you don’t want to increase on all numbers, perhaps just a hot number for that roll, instead of increasing your Come Bet or starting to double dip with Place Bets, couldn’t you just Put a higher flat bet on a given number that you want more odds on? I would think that it would more efficient that way vs. increasing Come Bets when the situation may not be right for that roll.

Posted by: ACPA on January 3, 2017, 5:48 pm

Unless the allowed odds are high enough and that is what you want to take in odds, a put wouldn’t make sense.

Noah

Posted by: Dr Crapology on January 3, 2017, 9:59 pm

i agree with ACPA especially on a 3,4,5 odds table. If a number hits simply double dip for a small amount–and yes I am aware of the fact that the outside numbers (4,5, 9,10) have a high casino vig with the exception of of buying the 4 and 10 for $25 with $1 vig paid on wins only.

Once I get most of the box numbers covered with a $10 base bet (pass and come) I increase to $15 and then to $25 once I get max odds on those on the box numbers at $15. If you need a higher base bet you increase with what you consider comfortable.

Hope that helps.

Doc

Posted by: MikeS on February 26, 2017, 4:28 pm

Hi Doc: Hope you & Rose are well!
Thank you for the post on a variation of TBS…. the original is my "go-to" system at the tables. I will experiment with this while I practice my toss, mental technique etc. so it becomes a no-brainer when playing in Vegas. I’ve found that to be great advice from you & Dom & Co. Practicing the betting system so it is natural and not a distraction when tossing at the real tables is a huge advantage!

Posted by: Dr Crapology on February 27, 2017, 12:52 pm

Mike thanks for the kinds words. However I will be posting a slightly different variation to this thread as I rethink how I bet and press.

Doc