With an SRR of 7 a DI would have a house advantage of 7.0513% with $64 across.

With a buy bet on the 4/10 that HA would be even bigger. The exact edge would depend on if the vig is paid upfront or only on a win.

For a random roller with an SRR of 6 the house advantage is -3.4685% on $64 across.

A DI with an SRR of 7 has a 68.57% chance of rolling a box number on any given roll.

You know, Skinny…whether the bet is a good one or not, I can always count on you to be able to calculate the probabilities.

70% chance ( mas o menos ) is probably why I’m usually hitting a couple of numbers then taking down everything but the 6 and 8 with single odds on the point, if applicable. Once in a while you go down hard, but it seems like you can usually make it back to something respectable if you don’t stay too long!

Thanks for the math.

Happy Rolling.

Alamo

PS…I think you meant the DI advantage would be greater with a buy on 4/10?

What about buying the 5/9…all assuming the vig is paid on the win, not on the buy? You have to risk a little more…or less…with a 5/9. Either $30 or $20. On a $20 5/9, the vig is $1, correct? Stays the same with a $30 buy?

Alamo

"AlamoTx" wrote: PS…I think you meant the DI advantage would be greater with a buy on 4/10?

What about buying the 5/9…all assuming the vig is paid on the win, not on the buy? You have to risk a little more…or less…with a 5/9. Either $30 or $20. On a $20 5/9, the vig is $1, correct? Stays the same with a $30 buy?

Alamo

Yes, the DI advantage would be greater with a buy on the 4/10. Notice the DI advantage is positive for an SRR of 7. I was saying that positive advantage would be greater.

The vig on a $20 buy is $1. Usually it stays the same with a $30 buy but it depends on the house. It is rare but some will charge $2 once the bet goes to $21. Others will keep it at $1 up to as much as $38. Both of those are less common. But most will still charge only $1 at $30.

For a random roller buying 5/9 with a $1 vig paid on the win only the HA at $20 would be -2.00%, at $30 it would be -1.33%, at $38 it would be -1.05%.

For a DI with an SRR of 7 buying 5/9 with a $1 vig paid on the win only the HA at $20 would be 8.89%, at $30 it would be 9.63%, at $38 it would be 9.94%.

Got my ass handed to me several years back in LV doing the same Place bet scheme. My thoughts were that any DI fool should be able to throw 4 box numbers before disaster. Guess I’m not just any fool…………..

Stephen:

What I’ve been experimenting with is much less risky than leaving the numbers up across…at least so far.

This is the strategy:

Assume a $10 table (more and more the norm in Vegas).

Point on come out is a 9

$20 odds on the point
Place $30 on 6 and 8
$20 Buy on the 5
$25 Buy on the 4 and 10

(This assumes vig is paid on the win; otherwise, just place the #s and say to heck with it. Most of the TR properties where I play exact the vig on the win.)

7 risk is $160…$161 if you’ve got $1 for the crew.

Let’s say the roll goes like this:

First hit = the 5 – rack $29
Second hit = the 6 – rack $35
Total in rack after two hits = $64

Take down the 5, 4 and 10 and $10 off the point odds.
After two hits you are thus returning $80 to the rack
$80 back to the rack plus $64 in winnings = $144
You now have a $30 6 and 8 working and a point of 9 that will pay you $25 if it hits

You have $16 at risk and a chance to repeat some 6s and 8s.

I don’t start spreading out until I’ve had 2 hits. It could be the 6/8 or the point. Doesn’t matter. Lock up a little win and then start spreading out $10 at a time until the board is covered. Rack $25 every time the 6/8 hits after the initial 2-hit profit.

Seems to be working very well. I’ve tried leaving it all out there, but I find that the 30% that Skinny was talking about becomes reality oftentimes within 10 rolls or less. Even with a solid SRR, you’re going to have plenty of rolls under 10 (I think the random average per hand is 8.5 or 9). If you can hit a couple of numbers within the first 5-7 rolls and then pull down the layout as indicated, you’ll get an opportunity to make a little money.

One alternative:
3 come bets with odds exposes maybe $90 out there, and I see that progression get wiped all the time on the 4th, 5th, 6th roll, etc. Come betting, by the time you’ve hit the 2 additional numbers to make working come bets, you could have hit those two #s as place bets and immediately reduced your 7 risk to $16.

This game is all about staying alive for the big run.

We’ll see if I have the nads to play it in real time.

Alamo

I was at a table one day and there was a guy that loved the way I was rolling . ( not me tho 0 ) He would bet all across and take down each bet as they won . I rolled every number on all 3 turns of the dice that I had and 7 nd out right after . He had all those wins with only pass line losses . I do not know if he put up odds on the pass line bet or whither he even bet it .
Just know that I was not to happy that I did not do any repeat numbers at ALL .I did not change my way of betting even tho his was working for him .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Sorry, this may be a long post but I may be one of only a few on this board who actually use regression betting.

I have been doing regression betting on myself the last two years and I have been very successful with it so far. Here are just some of my thoughts from my own experience and thoughts upon reading your post.

(1) confidence( but not over confidence) and immediate focus are most important when regression betting. If you are a slow starter at the table then this will not work with your shooting. This is just a general comment and not aimed at you specifically Alamo.

(2) I only do my regression betting on myself. I have done it mentally against other players at the table. Random rollers and even my husband and it has not held up on others. It is a play I save only for my shooting. Not sure why you would want to do this on random rollers. Even if you don’t want to 5 count them to get into the game quicker it seems a small 6/8 bet would be a bet that would keep you at the table longer or one Come bet with single odds. Starting with $160 each on a full table means only betting $160 on yourself and $160 X 10 on random rollers is $1600. In my opinion you are short changing yourself and giving a lot of credit to randies. Just food for thought and only my opinion.

(3) Think if regression works with your toss that you might still need to do a steeper regression to make it work well. Which means either starting higher money or taking more off the table after two hits. I am not sure a regression where you have not even covered your bets will win in the long run. It looks like you would still be about $16 short of even covering your bets after your regression. A regression needs to have a built in safe guard for recovering the money you will lose on point 7 outs and point, point 7 outs. And you will have some and not fun when you do. In order to have the confidence to continue down the path you have to know how many hands it will take for you to recover that portion of your bankroll. Just knowing that gives the peace of mind to relax when it happens. Or that is what I have found in my regression betting anyway.

(4) Just a couple of other things regarding the casinos and regression play. Most casinos do not like this play. Even the big LV players that you wouldn’t think would care. They might be OK with it if you do it on everyone but will not be thrilled when you only do it on yourself and especially if you win most of the time with it. May be a little crew dependent but they want a chance at your money and they do have it until regression but they usually don’t think this is enough. Also, your comps will probably go down with this type of play unless maybe you do it on all. I don’t get a lot of comps and don’t really care but if comps are important to you then it may lower those comps.

(5) here is my betting on regression and it is certainly not the holy grail. I am sure I will learn more as I go along and change it somewhat in the future or maybe even abandon it. Just informational for you to review and compare for what it is worth.

Bet only on hands when I am the shooter.

$25 each on 4/10
$35 each on 5/9
$42 each on 6/8
Equals $204 across plus $10 Passline. (No odds until I have taken 2 hits and regress) You could use odds on point number but I find it easier for the dealers and myself to forego odds. Mathematically, it is not ideal to forego the odds even for the two hits.

Equal payout on each of these hits. After two hits have either $98 or $108 total in my rack. Then regress everything or take it down. Leave $18 6/8 and Passline with half of maximum odds (3X,4X,5X tables). So odds are $15 4/10, $20 5/9, $25 6/8. As points are made and I progress in my roll I raise my Passline odds. I never bet HWay’s or features or any of the middle bets or field.

Seldom happens but if I have NOT hit my regression within 5 tosses after the point is established then I take my large bets down and go directly to 6/8 and pass with odds. If I am tossing that many horn numbers then it is not a good sign.

Hope these thoughts may have been helpful to you and Good luck with your Vegas trip!

I have two theories on regression like you have discussed. Another long post.

#1 – You are going to Point 7 a little less than 1/3 of the time, assuming your control is verified and good in live action;

#2 – If I don’t Point 7, then I figure I might catch a little heater while I’m only down $16. I do not press any of the bets until I’ve locked up $100 in the rack or, if the hand goes longer than 15 and I don’t lock up $100, I quit with whatever the win is;

#3 – If the roll goes long, after I"ve locked up the $100, I spread out with $10 per hit going to an open number until the box is full. After that, I press any green number 1/2 unit on the first hit and a full unit thereafter until 7 out;

#4 – If have gotten slapped with a Point 7 on the first hand, the next hand will have no pressing after the regression until I’m back to even. That does require hitting quite a few 6/8s, but even if you just hit a few of them, you have crawled back a bit.

#5 – I only give the table 3 hands where I’m shooting. If one of those hands doesn’t produce a winner, I’m out of there.

In practice this afternoon, I hit a PS right out of the box. Next hand was 17 rolls and it brought me up about $40. By my own rule, I should have quit but this was practice so I went for a 3d hand. Point 7. Loss was $135 or something like that. In a two day period in Vegas I usually play between 7 and 10 times with a max of 3 hands each. If I ever get WAY up ( for me that’s $500 or so ) no more across betting. $12 6 and 8 and try to chip away. If all 3 hands get wiped out, that’s just very bad luck.

I was interested in what you said about the house not liking regression bettors, but my attitude is that they don’t like DCs anyway so ‘let them eat fish heads!’. I’ve played a $12 6 and 8 on randies a lot of times and then done 3 naturals with full odds and never had anyone criticize my level of play on the randies. So, who knows. And besides, why should they get angry? Dice control doesn’t work anyway!

Happy rolling. I still haven’t decided that I’ll do this yet. I’m definitely more comfortable with a $30 6 and 8, taking them down to $18 or $12 on the first hit. No matter how good your shot is, 6 and 8 are still the easiest to hit.

Alamo

Alamo, I still don’t get the regression theory, the way you’re doing it does indeed put a lot of risk up front and those < 5 rolls can kill you.

I’m also a Place Bettor, at least until I repeat more often than I do and my math proves out that I should change (more later). My rolls usually spread the box, so I have 2 ways of going after the money. Just as you do, I have an "it’s not happening yet, let’s figure this out" approach of $18 6/8 and a line with 2x, but what I practice at home and bet ONLY on myself in live action is:

$40 outside, $24 6/8, usually with a $1 on top of each for the crew, my control, working on the come out. I try to use 3x4x5x until I get a few hits, then all get $50 odds until I press odds (we have mostly 100x, some 20x around here).
Point set to 4/10, take the $28 (10 plus win), add $2 for $30 odds
Point set to 5/9, take the $24, add $16 for $40 odds
Point set to 6/8, set odds at $50 rail $2

Now as I proceed, hits on any number get pressed as follows:
4/10: $10 to $15 to buy for $25, buy for $35, then +$20 each time… we can go to $39 on $1 vig, and half of the places here are vig on the win
5/9: $10 to $15, to $20, to $35, to $50, then + $25 each hit
6/8: $24 to $30, to $42, to $60, then +30

Max risk on this method is $98 ($100 if crew dough added) on CO, $114 if point is 5/9.
EVERY HIT reduces the risk, and generally speaking 8 place hits or a combination of points made and place hits of 3:1 (1 point hit = approx 3 place hits) puts you in the position of playing with house money. Why regress at this point? In general, unless you’re throwing the horn, you’ll be at even money in under 10 rolls.

I get the math of Come betting and using TBS, but if you don’t immediately repeat, you’ve quickly got $160 – $190 at risk, assuming my betting levels. I don’t tend to immediately repeat but do hit the box numbers enough to get the $ at risk reduced quickly. If I’m struggling, or it’s the first roll of the day, new casino, I go with minimums until I know I’m throwing OK at that time/place. I learned my lesson of going up to a table and putting it all out there when I hadn’t played that house in months.

In all instances, PLAY SMART. (I’m saying that to myself, I need that the most). As I’ve stated before in other posts, I’ll play two rails at home for weeks at a time to prove that what I’m doing is working better than Come betting. When that shift happens, I’ll perhaps go to Come betting, but this just works better for me right now. I think it’s because I tend to turn one die over often enough where my on axis is average, but my SRR is doing well and I pass the overall pro test.

Good rolling brothers and sisters!