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Texas Hold'em

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I was playing poker the other night and one of the players said in Canada a straight beats a flush.

My first thought was their math is wrong. Video poker pays better for a flush than a straight. But that is 5 card draw. What effect does having community card have on the odds of flush versus straight?

Anecdotally I see a lot of flushes, not so many straights. But that might be more of a function of the way the game is played, and not the actual odds. Players are more likely to bet on a suited pair rather than any off suit straight draw, pre-flop.

Anybody ever hear of this?


Replies:

Posted by: Pit Boss on September 25, 2017, 4:07 am

I could not find anything that supports this.

Look at it this way…

You hold 8-9 of hearts.

The cards that can help you make a straight are:
5555- 6666-7777-TTTT-JJJJ-QQQQ…24 outs

But the cards that help you make a flush are:
A234567TJQK of hearts… 11 outs

In a large sample of hands where 7 cards are dealt ( like in a hand of holdem or stud) you will see 2 flushes for every three straights more or less.

That said.. counter intuitively after a flop a hand with 4 to a straight has a slightly worse chance of seeing the straight than 4 to a flush has of seeing a flush. (8 outs vs. 9)

Posted by: Skinny on September 25, 2017, 6:04 am

In Texas Hold’em you are playing your best 5 cards out of 7. It does not matter that there are community cards because for your hand you are still playing with 7 cards.

In 7 card poker there are 4,047,644 ways to make a flush and 6,180,020 ways to make a straight. The total number of possible 5 card hands out of 7 cards is 133,784,560.

Thus the probability of a flush is 3.03% and 4.62% for a straight. A flush beats a straight.

Perhaps they were mixing it up with Three Card Poker.

In 3 card poker there are 720 ways to make a straight and 1,096 ways to make a flush. The total number of possible 3 card hands out of 3 cards is 22,100.

Thus the probability of a straight is 3.26% and 4.96% for a flush. That is why a straight beats a flush in 3 card poker.

Posted by: sevenout on September 26, 2017, 1:50 pm

I was wondering if the nature of the game makes a difference. In 5 card draw would you be more likely to stay in with 4 to a straight vs 2-3 off suit? 2-3 suited might be more likely to stay in to see the flop.

Posted by: Skinny on September 26, 2017, 7:41 pm

I don’t think that matters. But it is an interesting concept that made me think for quite a bit. Please don’t make me think so hard :D.

It is more likely we don’t have the proper information.