I wouldn’t persume to answer for Dom or any of the other instructors, but if I get my odds back because of an unwanted seven, I’m glad the seven came on a come out roll if it has to come. The seven in that case is a mistake but more a fender bender than a total crash.

I don’t use come bet usually, since with just a small advantage (my last trip SRR on not come out rolls was slightly under 7.0) and I’m not hitting any one number especially hard.

Hope this was useful to you, I thought it was a good question.

Noah

Agreed with Noah, I know Dom will have a different answer, but in studying the Big Skinny / Come Betting against my rolls, I am still a Place bettor on MY rolls because I hit the whole box and less often am zeroed in on a single number. Therefore i press up in very definitive steps based on how I’m rolling with the goal of playing with house money ASAP. I NEVER regress…… HOWEVER, I do now subscribe to the answer on what you do on a Come Out 7. Because the COS is an errant 7, I do need to think that I’ve perhaps gotten lazy, tired, any number of things, and that my roll may not continue and I should take those profits while I figure it out. On that, I’ve started reducing my place bets after a COS and starting over using the same logic given on the Come Betting "Odds to the Rail" argument. That way, if my roll continues, I again start pressing with my standard process. If it really gets rolling again, maybe get a little aggressive, but not crazy. I’d rather have a smaller win than a bigger loss.

I hope that made sense,

Don

Thanks guys!

Noah,

I do tend to use a Come bet on random rollers if I bet on one. I am always very happy on them to get my odds back on a Come Out 7. Money back in the rack on Randy is always good! 🙂 Since I set for 7 on the Come Out I always think I am "On with my toss" when I throw one so it is not an indication of anything wrong for me but the opposite.

Hardnine,

Not trying to hammer on you because I enjoyed your answer. Just want to make sure I am understanding correctly what you said.

You said you do not "regress" but you do reduce your bets after an errant Come Out 7? Would it be fair to say that you do regress sometimes depending on the situation at hand but just not as a regular part of your play sequence as I tend to do? When you do regress due to circumstances do you have a specific amount or % of amount that you reduce by? You did say that you have specific presses that you make when increasing your bets. Do you have specifics on reductions as well after a 7?

Hi getagrip,
I remember we were playing at the Fountain way back when I used a regression bet from one of Frank’s books.
Place the 6 & 8 for $30 ea. first hit add $1 and go to $ 48 ea. second hit collect $56. Third hit go to $60 on ea. collect $32. fourth hit collect $70. fifth hit go to $90 on ea. collect $10. sixth hit collect $105 and regress the 6 & 8 to $30 ea. Net plus $332. $30 still up on the 6 & 8.

The dealer on my end shook his head no, no, never regress. On the next throw I hit the ten, which was my pass line point. As he paid me, I said see I was relaxed enough to hit the ten. He just had that expression on his face, yeah right.

Another time at the same casino, I progressed up from $30 ea. on the 6 & 8 with a press & pull to $600 on the 6. I hit it, collected $700, regressed back to $30 and seven out. Ah, the good old days!

Bottom line, it is whatever your comfort level is.

Catch you later!

Getagrip,

The reason I say that I don’t regress, is that I would consider it to be a reset to initial bets based on the 7 that just rolled. So although it’s not a complete clearing of the bets, I go back to the beginning, therefore locking in any wins that had been pressed. I would define regression as an ongoing reduction of bets at your hand extends. Matter of semantics I suppose.

I never reduce bets in the middle of point cycles, I’m pressing a unit or if they’re already up to given levels, pressing by my own rules. For instance, if I’m starting with $18 6/8, it’s up a unit to $24, then $30, then I press to $42, $60, then press $30 on each hit after. 4/10 depends on where I am, but if starting with $10 (I can hear Dom screaming at me), then it’s up to $15 (bet is now paid for with the $18 hit), then I buy for $20, then $35 if that is what is allowed on $1 VIG. Where I usually play, the vig is on the win and can push the vig steps to $39, $59, $79, $99, etc. I usually keep to the $5 units.

Don

This is a great thread. We are really glad it has been posted.

As Dom says in class, a come out 7 is all about timing. We never know when that come out seven (after we have made a point) will occur. The odds come down and we lose all but one of our base come bets as one come bet will be offset by the win on the pass line. You can increase your pass line bet to cover the base come bets just in case the 7 does appear. After all you do have a 2 to 1 advantage on that come out roll.

I have seen other players tell the dealers to leave the come bets up. Example, you have three $10 base come bets with odds working and the shooter (you or another advantage player) has a come out seven. The players tells the dealers to leave the come bets in place and gives him $30 to cover the loss of the 3 come bets. This is called a "put" bet. The disadvantage is that you lose the 2 to 1 advantage you have with a regular come or pass line bet on the come out roll. We don’t really recommend it. Seems I have read that a put bet can be an advantage if you can take enough odds–5 times odds or more seems to stick in our minds. Skinny, your thoughts.

Billy The Kid, said it the best–that come out 7 may be an indication of what just might happen in the near future. This may be an indication you are tired, lost some of your focus, or a real pretty cocktail waitress may cross your line of vision—Doc may be old but he is not blind or dead. 😀 😀

What do Rose and Doc to?? If we have been hitting–let’s say–the 6 and/or 8, we might just place them for $18, but mostly start come betting all over again. Not a big loss if a quick 7 out occurs. The place bet and the win combined will provide us the odd we need without taking more or our chips out of the chip rail. BUT mostly we will start our come betting over again with the odds we had at the beginning of our roll. We pretty much treat it like a new turn with the dice although our hand has continued.

We would like to say something for many of this board you are committed place/buy players–never a come bet and probably not a pass line bet if they are not rolling. Often these players set for the 7 after each and every come out roll. If the 7 hits they lose nothing but the come betters do. As courtesy to the come betting GTC friends, Rose and Doc will only set for the 7 on the initial roll of their turn–never on a come out roll after a point is made. Besides at a $10 table we don’t really care about winning $10, we would rather set a point put odds and have a much bigger win.

We have rambled along long enough. Hope to see many of you in AC next month.

Rose and Doc

"Dr Crapology" wrote: Seems I have read that a put bet can be an advantage if you can take enough odds–5 times odds or more seems to stick in our minds. Skinny, your thoughts.

Rose and Doc

A put bet can be an advantage depending on how much you can take in odds. Unfortunately it is not a simple answer because it depends on the number as well as the amount of odds you take.

But you do not need to memorize a bunch of numbers to figure out if it is a good bet or not. There is a simple way to determine if the put bet is a good bet.

Figure out which pays more, a put bet or a place bet. Then make whichever bet pays more.

For example, a put bet of $10 with $20 in odds on the 6 or 8 pays $34. But a place bet of $30 pays $35. In this case a place bet is better than the put bet.

But a put bet of $10 with $80 in odds on the 6 or 8 pays $106. A place bet of $90 pays $105. The put bet is the better bet.

Simple?

Thanks ‘Skinny, you always put a difficult thing into easy to understand terms.

Doc

Hardnine,
You say potatoe, I say potatoe. 😀 Thanks for the clarification. I understand now that you go back to your base bets–whatever they were—on a Come Out 7. Not a bad plan I think!

Wowman,
Such joy and satisfaction when a betting plan comes together just as it is scripted! Yes, the dealers in that joint always tell me I am such a good shooter that I shouldn’t regress. Well, flattery doesn’t get them anywhere! I just play my regression as I’ve planned.

Doc,
Thanks to you and Skinny for the information on the "put" bet and outlining how you play after a Come Out 7 with Come bets established. I feel I do want to comment on it "only" being a $10 win on a Come Out 7. I don’t really feel it is about the dollar amount won on the Come Out 7 for Place bettors. It is all about that 2 to 1 advantage you mentioned earlier in your post. The casino gives you an advantage on that Come Out roll game and then you use your influence over the dice to take a larger advantage over that game within the game. It is simply just a good mathematical bet and being an Advantage player and we all do know that good math adds up over many hands.

I would not go to a table knowingly with a group of GTC that are known Come Bettors and try to sabotage their Come bets with Come Out 7’s. Betting would be discussed before going to that table. However, if I am already at a table and by chance people come to the table and start Come Betting (GTC or not) I will not change my betting plan. What about the Don’t Come bettor on the end of the table who is winning on my Come Out 7’s? Am I being fair to him if I change? Just trying to point out that we sometimes can get too caught up in trying to please others at the Craps table. When we have the dice we need to control the game and have confidence in what we plan to do. Second guessing can be a recipe for disaster and lost money.

Dom,
Still hoping you might weigh in on your current thoughts on regression betting for Place bettors. Thanks everyone!

You have piqued my interest with this post. I had not thought of it this way in the past but you are correct when you say

It seems to me that getting the odds returned on a Come Out 7 is a bit like a regression on Place bets.

You have created a dilemma for me since I do not believe in regression betting. I do think it is appropriate to go slowly in the beginning of a hand, especially if it is one of your first few tries at the table. Getting in a hole at the beginning of a session is demoralizing and difficult to get out of. It often sets the tone for a poor session or possible even a losing trip. That is one of the reasons I like to tread lightly until I have collected some money and at that point I tend to put the pedal to the metal and go all out. Is that enough cliches for you so far? Okay here is what it means in a practical sense.

I like to come bet, first and foremost because it provides the lowest HA available. But second because it puts my money on the table more slowly than if I were to place bet right after establishing my point. I will hold at 3 bets until I get a hit on one of my numbers. At that point one of the bets comes down, I put out a new come bet but only have 2 bets on the table until I roll a new point number. If I seven out before throwing a new point number, I collect on my last come, have collected on one bet and only lose two bets. The net is I will only lose a little less than the odds on one bet under that scenario. I suppose in the truest sense that is a form of regression. But it is consistent with my desire to approach slowly in getting bets on the table at the beginning of a hand.

Now to specifically answer the situation getagrip has described, here is how I handle a come out seven that knocks off several of my come bets, returning the odds to me. If I have collected 4 times, that is enough in winnings for me to be able to cover the board with 6 bets having full odds. In that case I will probably put some money back on the table in the form of place bets on the numbers I am hitting most frequently. However I will not put all the money back. I will probably only go back up on one or two numbers, keeping about 1/2 the odds returned in my rails. I will continue to come bet from that point on. Depending on how the hand develops, I may or may not leave the place bets up when I establish the number with a come bet. If I have a few more hits along the way, I will leave the place bet up so that I can double dip. But if I am spreading out without any new collections, I will probably take the place bet down so as not to get behind on the hand.

If I have less than 4 collections I will probably keep all the odds money being returned and start my progression with come bets all over again.

I have already explained the reason for this above but let me repeat for clarity. If I have 4 collections, I can not lose money on this hand even if I go up on all six numbers and seven out without having another collection. Since I am ahead, I want to put the pedal to the metal and get up as quickly as possible, double dipping where appropriate. With less than 4 collections, I think it best to treat this like a new hand and get up on the board more slowly for the reasons I stated above.

So I guess, I do not believe in regression betting once I am ahead on a hand. Being ahead is a sign of a good hand and I want to be very aggressive on that kind of hand. But while a hand is developing and my money is at risk, I want to go slowly, trying to get a profit before putting out a lot of money to protect my bankroll.

Skinny, we love your posts–this one in particular. Rose and Doc use this type of betting when we have a come out seven during a roll–very conservative if it is early in the roll, but more aggressive if it occurs later in the roll when we have a profit in the chip rail. We are very conservative early in a roll as we feel that one of the most important points for an advantage player is to protect his bankroll.

We love your responses to postings on this message board. We miss you. You are a legend. We thank you.

Rose and Doc

Skinny

Excellent post….. one that helps both the new guys and long time players.

gman

Skinny; I love your approach and clarity. I have adopted the same approach and feel very comfortable with it. it’s good to have a plan and even better to follow it. Thanks again.

Getagrip’s original question was about regression and I’ll address that first. Losing your flat bet is not regressing, it’s losing those bets. The reason that the odds come back is that the flat bets lost. If you had only one come bet then that winner 7 is a push, line bet wins, come bet loses. What you choose to do after the point cycle winner is up to you and should depend on number of wins, table conditions etc.

The reason that regression betting is a poor choice is twofold. #1 If you have an edge the way to make the optimum return is betting in relationship to that edge and at the proper size with relation to your bank, growing your bankroll, and then raising your bets as your bankroll increases. Since we know that betting into your edge in relationship to the size of your bank will produce the maximum return we also know that if you are regressing then either your initial bet is too large a bet or your bet after regression is too small since your edge doesn’t change your optimum bet should not change either.
#2. When players use regression betting it is common to see them bet too high initially and then after they get their desired number of wins regressing to a level more in line with their bank. Even if the initial bet is not too large what ends up happening is there are hands where you will lose that initial bet without any wins and to make up for that loss you have to win many more bets at the smaller level to get even. A classic example would be an initial bet of $60 each 6 and 8, taking one hit and then regressing to $30 each. Each time that you lose that initial bet of $120 you need to win 4 bets at $30 to see a $20 profit and that’s 4 bets AFTER you get that first win to regress to $30 bets. When you regress you make it more difficult to show a profit since you are trying to recoup losses of the larger bets with smaller ones.

On to put bets. As Skinny stated if you can play higher odds you can make those bets pay larger amounts than place bets. As I usually say, "it’s all about the money" but sometimes it’s not always about the money. If you want to use put’s in certain situations instead of place bets you can get a higher payoff if you can take higher odds on those put bets. The reason that it’s not always about the money is the house edge. By making put bets you lose the advantage of having the bet go through the come and that 2/1 initial edge when the money is in the come is a big deal and is one of the reasons that come bets have a lower edge. There will be no Bactine for you since there is no come bet win to take the sting out of the 7 out.
When you look at puts and their edge you must look at specific numbers like place bets. For your reference the edge on put bets if there is 20 x odds is, 1.59 on the 4/10, .95 on the 5/9 and .43 on the 6/8. As you can see you do pay a price in H/E over come bets, and puts should never be considered if 5X odds or more are not offered. If you can get 10X odds then I’d say it’s up to you.
I would never make a put bet at the start of a hand and lose the power of the come bet in the beginning, As Skinny said there may be reasons that I might decide to do it but there are many factors that i would have to consider before I could make that decision like money won on that hand, shooter fatigue and many others to numerous to list. I also probably would only make a put bet on the 6/8 since the edge is lower.

We all play a little different because we have different risk tolerance and different bankrolls. I go with come bets almost exclusively since they have the lowest house edge which makes them easier to beat.

Hope this helps.

BTK

Sorry it has taken me awhile to get back to giving my thoughts on recent great posts in this thread.

Skinny,
Happy my original post piqued your interest! 😀

I appreciate your reasoning on going up slowly and bankroll protection. Getting into a hole early is not a problem for me psychologically but it certainly was when I started out and different for different personalities and confidence levels. Could be a real problem for some and your reasoning is very sound on that point I think. Your explanation of your betting was as clear as I have ever seen it stated by anyone. Thank you so much for your thoughtfulness and clarity. Think I will save your explanation to read and reread!

BTK,
I was only making the comparison on "regression like" on the odds portion coming back and not on the flat portion of the bet. Yes, the flat bet is lost for sure and that is why I made note of a casino mandated regression in my original post. Chips are coming back to the rack either way and that was my only comparison point. I do realize it is not apples to apples. I did like the way you stated that if you only had one Come bet in the box when a 7 shows then you are a winner. That certainly did point out the differences in these betting types. Thanks for that clarity!

Excellent points discussed regarding knowing your edge and your bankroll. I wonder how many of us really know that as far as how the edge is actually figured out? That would be a great learning post for all I think if an instructor would post some information (not just use Smartcraps or a mathematical formula) but a combination of explanation and math.

I do see myself in one of your descriptions. I do fall into the category of under betting my skill after taking my regression so I am not winning as much as I should. I do think that the early focus in a hand helps me develop my zone more quickly but again that is personal psychology and not math which is what will cover all bettors no matter personality type. Remember that I am not trying to talk anyone else into regression betting but just reviewing the possible pros or cons of it.

More great info on put bets. Thanks so much BTK for taking the time to post and all of your great explanations and thinking.

Feel like I have learned so much from these posts and will now look at my regression betting in different ways and maybe I will come up with a new plan that doesn’t include regressions.

If anyone else has thoughts then feel free to add them!

Nine, Of course I knew what you meant by "regression like" but felt that for everyone’s benefit I had to point out that you most likely had a loss and since there was a loss you should look at it like a loss and not really an opportunity do do something else like regress or press. That being said, this is an opportunity to quickly take a look at the hand in question, whether you are the shooter or someone else is, and decide how you want to proceed.
Why did the seven show now? Remember that even if you have an SRR of 7 that means on every roll, even the come out roll in question, that you will toss a 7 on 1 out of 7 rolls. So back to why. What was your critique of the shot? Good, bad, tired shooter, hit chips or whatever. When you know a possible reason for the 7 you can then decide in which direction to go. I’ll lay out a few scenarios and give examples of what I would consider and why.

#1 I’m waiting for the dice, unknown shooter makes the 5 count I make a come bet with odds and the shooter proceeds to make that bet, and another and after 25 rolls I might have 2 or even 3 come bets and a line bet with odds after 6 or 7 winning bets. The shooter now throws a winner 7 on roll 26 and I win my line bet but all the come bets fall. In this case I’ll definitely make a line bet, hoping for another 7 but revert to 1 come bet like I did after the 5 count because this shooter probably doesn’t have any skill so since I’ve won money I will start over and build from there slowly once again. I don’t look at is as a regression per se but a chance to begin again with an unknown shooter.

#2. I am the shooter. I’ve made 3 points and have 4 numbers including the line bet on roll 18. On the come out I roll a 7. It was a good toss but perhaps bounced funny off of the wall so now, since my come bets fell I will try to throw as many 7’s on the next tosses to see what my toss looks like and if I like it I’ll stay at the bet level that I was at and keep shooting, and keep making come bets with max odds at the same level as before.

#3. The shooter is one of the people that I usually shoot with and I know their toss very well. The hand is at roll 40 and they toss a come out 7. Their shot is looking fantastic with many primaries and that come out shot looked good. I have to assume that the 7 was an anomaly since it looked as good as many of the others. The shooter has tossed lost of 6’s and 8’s and my come bets on them had been progressing higher. We are playing in Shreveport with 100x odds. Since this has been a great hand and already has a big win this is the time where I might make a put bet on the 6 and 8 only. If the come bets that fell with the 7 were say $5 flat with $200 odds. I would think about making the put in an amount that would win enough to make the odds bet in it’s former size, I would not go with 5 with 200 but probably 5 with 100 so that if it wins i go right back to 200 or 250 odds but I am protecting myself some if it never repeats. I would continue making bets with 200 odds and keep progressing odds until I have to increase the come bet to $10. If there were not many 6’s and 8 winners I would simply replace my bets through the come at the same level. If we were in Vegas in the first scenario I would place the 6 and 8 in an amount to cover my former odds bets on those numbers only. So if I had $125 odds I’d place the 6/8 for $60 each. I would also do this if I were the shooter, Please note that I use the put/place bets to pay for my odds bets on the 6/8 when those numbers hit. I would also consider leaving that place bet up and "double dip" on the 6/8 to get more money on those numbers. I would also do this if I were the shooter.

#4 Known shooter who IMO has an edge or myself or the regular shooters that I normally play with. Sometimes you play a hand that is primarily point winners. Shooter has been bringing points right back and has made 8 points however only 1 come bet winner. My line bet is now much bigger than when I started because of the wins but come bets are at the starting level and only 0 or 1 have won. On these types of hands I would continue the bigger line bet after the come out 7 and just might make place bets on the 6/8 in an amount equal to the come bet with odds and not make come bets until the shooter starts repeating numbers other than the point number. When I do this I’ll make come bets if the numbers repeat or make 1 come bet if the 6 or 8 is the point to get another number working.

#5. Any hand can a may go south for a number of reasons. The shooter is tired, distracted, angry at another player or in an argument with the crew (*1 see foot note below below), you need to gauge them, their shot to see whether THIS may be the time to get money off of the table especially after the come out 7, not regress but get as much money off the table until the shooter has returned to form.

I’ve given a few scenarios and there are certainly many, many more that we could talk about. All of these I have thought about many times and played them many times so these are known ways that I like to play since they have been successful for me. They fit my criteria of being aggressive enough while using low house edge bets. Never worry about taking less risk or taking money off of the table on unknown shooters since most hands of unknown shooters are losing hands. The reason that I have mentioned a few rather than saying "only make come bets" is that I want players to think about what they will do during a hand instead of simply only doing one thing since you never know what will happen in any given hand although we all know how the hand ends, 7 out.

Foot note *1. If Dom is the shooter and he is angry at a player crew or pit boss, this is the time to PRESS and he is the only player I know that can get better after this happens. Me? Rarely.