Craps

Why aren't I winning …. and mini trip report

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This post is meant to maybe set off a light bulb for some to help, as well as get me some feed back on my thoughts …. and if there is something not appropiate, please let me know or delete it.

I was speaking with a fellow GTC member a few months back, so I have been contemplating this post for some time. The question was asked how I have been doing for the year, to which I know, I’m down. Which lead to a conversation about why I thought that was ….

To me, my biggest issue is I still have too much gambler in me. I don’t 5 count most shooters, and don’t use the 25% rule on most others as well, regardless if they are GTC, or any DI or CF for that matter. My second issue is that I go too much by myself, and not taking advantage of the advantage of knowing other GTC folks to meet & shoot with. I have 2 casino’s within 15 minutes of my home, so I never really seen the need to drive an hour or more to meet with others more at different locations.

If you have taken the class(es), and you are not winning, why is that. Are you not following the betting guidelines that will help you to be an advantage player. Are you like me, and betting too much on others, and it is wiping you out? When going with others, are you counting everyone, just a select few, or even yourself?

I do know that there are different factors at the casino, whether it is the dice size, to it being to humid or too cold, the dealers having conversations, and box people doing something, whether they realize it or not. There is also the feeling when certain individuals come onto the table you are on, that bothers you for some reason. There is also different table conditions, and lengths, etc.

All that being randomly stated, I personally have made some of the changes that I need. Instead of going 4 days/nights a week, I may only go 2. I try to meet up with others when I can, even if that requires me to take an hour or so road trip. I’m not down to 25%, but I’m not at 100% or more on other shooters from what I bet on myself. I try to play on tables with less people when I can. If I can’t get my preferred spot, I have been getting better with watching, and if it don’t open, leaving. This past weekend I was able to get on a table, starting by myself. My first roll was in the mid 30’s (counted 36, but could be +/-). I almost tripled my buy in on just that roll. I had a few under 5 rolls, and a few in the teens, and the table filled up, so I went to another table to be alone again (it had a higher minimum, so the people that were there left for the cheaper table). Started off not good, and was down to my buy in +50%. Had another awesome roll (unfortunately I didn’t count) but finished it being up 4x my buy in. Couple rolls in early teen’s. I eventually was up 5x my buy in, but told myself I wanted the dice 1 more time, and was leaving. Ended up staying 1 roll to long. Left only 3x my buy in. I was happy to be up, but my ego got the better of me, because I just knew I would have another mid-teen to 20’s roll …. So, that is one big reason I don’t make money, but am working on ….


Replies:

Posted by: The Contractor on August 24, 2016, 11:46 pm

I think if you re read your own post, you will see why your are not winning more. I get it when we all go to the table and the dice just aren’t coming out of your hand correctly or the physical table is just not to your liking so we lose. Even so, when the conditions are not right, stop playing. A controlled thrower (is that a word?) cannot be a gambler. The math gives us an edge but that edge is so small that if we deviate problems will ensue. When you start to fight all the GTC commandments like not 5 counting, playing too long, shooting out of position, playing prop bets etc etc you’re just giving the casino money. I never thought the toss was all that difficult to learn. The difficult part of the journey, for me, is reprogramming the area between my ears to not let chips at the end of the table, the pit boss, drunks etc to disrupt my game. Once any of them is in my head my toss goes to crap. My solution has been once I start feeling that tension of things getting into my head, is I leave. One of the best players I have ever played with taught me even when we are winning and winning big, if the table conditions change, too crowded etc, leave. There were will always be another table or another day.
Hope this helps a little bit.

The Contractor

Posted by: Skinny on August 25, 2016, 2:37 am

I still have too much gambler in me. I don’t 5 count most shooters, and don’t use the 25% rule on most others as well, regardless if they are GTC, or any DI or CF for that matter.

All that being randomly stated, I personally have made some of the changes that I need.

First let me congratulate you on making the changes you have. I know it is extremely hard to make changes that you have had for a lifetime. It is the main reason Dom says only 10% of the students will become successful at this. It is not because you can not develop a controlled throw. While that is a task that takes effort, practice and hard work, the vast majority of students are able to become reasonably accomplished shooters.

If you want to be successful you MUST follow the betting guidelines you were taught in class.

The question you have to ask yourself is do you want to make money or do you want to gamble? Be honest with yourself. Following the GTC guidelines makes this a very boring game. It will take the "fun" of gambling out of the game for you. It will replace it with discipline (hard to do), very few type and frequency of bets (what fun is that) and it will significantly reduce your playing time (but you like to play). For your reward in making all these changes you will only get one thing in return.

So are you ready to change? Are you going to get serious about doing this?

I hope you answer yes and I wish you well on your new journey. It can be a rewarding one if you are willing to go on it.

It is now up to you.

Posted by: brothelman on August 25, 2016, 4:07 am

First thing gtc taught me is if I do not have a throw that is capable of making money I should not be at the table, go to make money on your throw.

Now are you still throwing from more than one position?

The time that we talked you said you could see the difference in your shot and mine, you said you had a lot to work on did you do the work?

The 2 biggest things I see from almost all is that, one they believe that just because they set the dice they have a good throw.

2 they bet on every one.

You no what I takes the question is do you want it , and are you willing to do the work?

This is myky eyes right?

Posted by: Finisher on August 25, 2016, 11:39 am

Eyez Well I have been trying just like you have . It is a JOURNEY so its takes time .
On the next post you talked about looking at others sets and you should be not betting on them instead . Unless their throw not the set gets you interested in betting .
I vary seldom look at what they are setting . I look at how they throw or how the dice are landing and reacting .
After my throw it is time for restroom .Hoping that the dice have gone to other end of table by the time I get back . Tho have had them pass by me one time or two .
I play wayyyyy tttooooo long when at a casino .I am working on that one .Since I go about 3 or 4 times a year it is hard .With casinos so close to you it should be easy to adjust .Like a daily walk if if dont like it go in a different direction .
We also play slots so the money part gets ALL mixed up about winning .I know that I should keep them apart .
If not at spot bet vary LITTLE IF ANY .
I do not use 5 count but vary seldom bet on others .When I do it is from wins on one bet that have won on them at least twice .Just do not like taking money out of my rack for others .
I am more into the fun of this then winning BIG . You have to bet big to win big . Were I play the big chip is black .I have Sean were a player put all his chips out to leave and be told that he needed to take the black ones back to cage.
Getting off track now . Old age setting in agin .
This is a JOURNY.
Good Rolling.

Posted by: HardNine on August 25, 2016, 2:00 pm

Great thread you started, Eyez.

To bman, yes on your last question.

Such great responses, and all pointing to the fact of getting us as close as possible to the GTC way. We’ll all have slight adjustments, but those should be on how we bet on our own throws, and I keep doing tests on them against pure come/BigSkinny betting to make sure I’m taking advantage of MY edge first.

For me, I ALWAYS have a split rail. My buy is 500/100, or in our group shoots, will boost the "others" side of buy as I know I’ll be on more rolls and may need a little more there. I account for every roll on my phone or on paper after I’m done, I count rolls, hits, points made, $ change. Same on CF rail, will note +/- and perhaps some notes on what worked, what didn’t.

I’m at about 90% mastered on the practice of absolute 5 counting others… I may go in a hair early if they repeat and as someone noted, I see stability in the throw. If it’s a dice-winger, I still go over 5. My only other fault is a 6/8 place vs. come as I lose to craps so often….. timing is everything! Elsewhere, it’s those group shoots where I need work. I do tend to go up early on our folks. And my results more often than not show that it’s not smart. I’ll keep working on that. I do try to assess my level of stupidity in betting after every session. I want to make sure that I nip the problems one by one.

Eyez, don’t know if you’re showing up early, like Friday, but if you want me to kick you in the keester when you do it, I will… I’m here for you, man! Let’s kill it this weekend!

Posted by: brothelman on August 25, 2016, 2:44 pm

Hard nine just because some one sets the dice doesn’t mean they are any better than random, in fact in another discussion we agreed that some one could be influencing the dice in a negative fashion, making them worse than random.

Posted by: HardNine on August 25, 2016, 3:06 pm

bman, I don’t think I said I watch for dice setters, I had agreed with someone on how they look in the air/landing that may influence when / if I go in on them.

Posted by: TheLion on August 25, 2016, 7:50 pm

With the tables close to us (less than 30 minutes away), there’s no possible way to win

Dice bounce off the table too much and I’ve even had a few shots bounce backwards

Im-freaking-possible to beat it

Posted by: Eyez on August 25, 2016, 11:42 pm

Thanks for all the reply’s!!!

To Contractor: Yes, I know why I’m not winning. Due to the conversation I was having with someone, and the answer I gave was the same as some others, so that is why I labeled it with the heading, to help peak interest, and get points out there, that I know I’m doing, as well as possibly others, without calling anyone out per se. When I’m wrong, I don’t usually mind even calling myself out. 😉

Finisher: On the other post, it was more of how do others see a set someone next to them is using, if you (as I do) take a step back when they are getting dice. Since it is my money out there, it would be nice to know if they are setting 7’s on come out rolls. If they start out with three 7’s in a row, before establishing a point, was it due to them setting the 7, or were they using a hard way set, or just random. Sometimes that will help me decide how soon I go up on them as well. I need to find a way to incorporate a bathroom or drink break after rolls to help me. I usually don’t have any adult or kiddie cocktails while I’m at the table, but maybe I should start???!!! 😯

Hardnine: I’ve never thought about doing a split buy in for myself & others. That would almost be like using a set amount for hardways, and see if you can make money betting them … I will put that into my thought box, and run some case scenarios in my future plays and see how it would work … I’ll pm you about this weekend … But I do appreciate the swift kick in the keester when I’m getting out of line, like betting a C for the shooter, since they hit 2 of them on their comeout roll!!!! 😆

bman: you are very insightful, and have a great discipline for the journey. When at my ‘home’ casino, I do try to stick to just one spot. I’ve been better with not shooting from other locations. When I’m out of town, I may try other locations, depending on the crowd at the table. Again, I know it is my own fault for doing this, and definetly need to work on that as well!!! I’m hoping that our paths happen to cross again next year. Looking at a work trip at a bad time (Big Convention), but, it’s paid for so how can I say no to it … once details are definetly worked out, I will put on the other page.

Again, thanks all for the comments, and helpful insights. I know it helps me to think about what I’m doing wrong more, and gives me motivation to change for the better. Keep them coming!!!

Posted by: brothelman on August 26, 2016, 5:26 am

Dear Mr. eyez you either do it or you don’t.

Their is no in between.

Do you know how difficult it is to five count I look and my hand I only see four fingers and I never make it to five.

Next time you get caught speeding try telling the cop that you were trying not to and see how far that gets you.

lmao

see you next time.

Posted by: Finisher on August 26, 2016, 8:13 am

I drink water at table .But not much . The water pill does help in morning tho . But some times I just use that as an excuse to get away for a break with out the loss of my spot .Some times I just wash my hands and sit for a few min.There is a seat just out side of the rest room were I play .
If they say any thing to you about that just lie a little and say its the pills you take .You could up date info on your phone that way too or check it for missed calls .
Those few min. may help in your next throw to just get away for a min or two . I think Dom use to kick the slots after his rolls . 😀 😀
Good Rolling 😀 😀

Posted by: SevenTimesSeven on August 28, 2016, 3:24 pm

"brothelman" wrote: Dear Mr. eyez you either do it or you don’t.

Next time you get caught speeding try telling the cop that you were trying not to and see how far that gets you.

Bman
You stole that line from my friend Hilary-ouch !!

Posted by: Eyez on August 28, 2016, 9:14 pm

Wasn’t that something that Mr. Miagi (sp.) or yoda said …. do, or do not, there is no try … Know I’ve seen both movies, and can imagine both saying … oh well LOL

Correction, I just had to look it up … #1 of top 10 Yoda Quotes: “Do. Or do not. There is no try.” The Empire Strikes Back

I do it to the best of my ability, right or wrong … That’s why I have to get the refresher courses when I can, to correct my ability.

Posted by: billythekid on August 29, 2016, 9:11 pm

Eyez,

It’s really pretty simple, not easy but simple.

You must decide whether you are going to the casino to play and have a good time or are you going to the casino to win money and beat those bastards at their own game. Either is OK however for me the latter is the quest that resonates and gives me the satisfaction and the money. Getting their money one way or another. For me it is all about the money and winning it from the casino.

What I usually say to aspiring AP’s is that you will know that you are an AP when you leave casinos more often without playing because you knew that for whatever reason the conditions that you need to win were not present at that time. I walk out of many more casinos without playing than I play in. On a typical day when I am in my play mode I might look at 5-7 casinos and play in only 2 because the opportunity was not there at the other 4 or 5 that I visited that day. I have often driven 60-90 minutes and not played.

My bankroll is sacred to me and I refuse to risk it on poor opportunities or use it for other things, which brings me to a question. Have you established a 401G and do you use only that money to gamble with and do you use some sort of phone app or computer program to track your play and keep track of your totals? I think that that this step may be part of yours and others game that is missing. If you establish a FIRM 401G and diligently track your play this may force you to be more honest with yourself about fixing the leaks in your game. When you always track your play by continuously using a spread sheet that tracks choice of games, times and days of the week, casinos, table #’s and length of sessions after a while you will start to notice things that will give you hints about choices that need to be changed. So suppose that after looking at 6 months of data you saw that playing casino X on Tues and Wed that you are ahead $8000 but playing casino Y on Friday and Sat you have lost $7500. And perhaps add to that you see on Fri and Sat playing VP at casino Q you are ahead $4500. What will you do next Friday when someone want’s to meet at casino Y? When you have the data only then can you start to see what it means and use it to grow your 401G.

The other thing that is so important is the bets that are you making. Do you want to win more money when you toss a hard 8? Then put more money on your place bet 8 since you will win that bet more often than the hard 8 prop bet and the casino takes less from you for the privilege of making that bet. When the dealers ask me if I want a hard 8 when the point is 8 I ALWAYS point my finger at my line bet and say my hard 8 bet is right there and I’ll get paid when it rolls. Bet more on the good bets and less or NOTHING on the bad bets. The math never lies. You know that by betting on others you will lose, nothing else can happen if you play more than a few times. You also know that by practicing a controlled toss you can have a positive expectation. It takes a great and I mean REALLY GREAT shooter to overcome the disadvantage of betting on negative expectation shooters. By betting the same on them as you do on yourself you make winning that much more difficult if not impossible. Listen to Nancy Reagan and JUST SAY NO!

When players decide that they will establish a gambling bankroll, a 401G, and only play with that money and not use that money for beer,car repairs or whatever they usually start to become very careful with that bank and strive to make it grow by viewing their past results. Perhaps by doing this and setting a goal for the bank this will help you and others to plug some holes in their games. After a few hundred hours you will be able to see what your hourly win rate is for different games and casinos. You may find out that table 2 at casino X is simply unbeatable and decide to never play it again. Believe me there are many tables and casinos that I simply won’t play anymore, but I scout them anyway to see if anything has changed.

The story that I often relate to folks on this topic is about the aspiring card counter being at the casino and asking the pit boss for a comp for lunch. When the pit boss says that he doesn’t have enough points for a lunch comp he goes home to make a sandwich because he doesn’t have enough money in his right pocket for lunch since the $10,000 that is in his LEFT pocket is dedicated bankroll. Your 401G goes in your LEFT pocket and your lunch money goes in your RIGHT pocket. Start doing this and you will see changes in your game. Believe me, I do and it works. Next time you see me ask to see my left and right pockets.

These are simple but important things that must be done if beating the casinos is your goal. The casinos track every penny every day and never willingly take action where they don’t have an edge. If you want to win you need to do the same thing.

BTK

Posted by: Butcher on September 1, 2016, 12:43 am

Eyez. With all the great points that Skinny and Bill have made there isn’t really much left unsaid. I have learned where some of my "leaks" are .I take acouple of 3×5 index cards and jot down some notes to review before I play. I usually have two cards. One for items relating to my shot and the other relating to how I will play. This helps me keep things fresh in my mind like making sure I five count or what first bet I will make if the shooter makes it through the count etc. As others have mentioned it is easy to "talk the talk" but more difficult to "walk the walk". I hope you have found some help in this thread. 🙂

Posted by: Dominator on September 2, 2016, 11:05 am

This is such a great post! Those of you that have attended the seminar in this past year have noticed how much we are stressing betting – more than we ever did.

Actually I am now of the belief that if we can get the student to make the good bets on the table we have done our job even more so than just showing them how to grip, set, and throw.

Awhile back I started a post on what we can do better for our students and most responses were like you can lead a horse to water but can’t make them drink the water. This is so true, but we want all of you to become winners and to

become a winner you all have to learn how to lose less!

let me repeat that:

To become a winner you all have to learn how to lose less

It is not only to discipline yourself on using the 5-count – it is also having the discipline to use come bets and to take odds. Think of this, if you lost $300 on your last session but because you bet properly you only lost $150 – well it is easier to recoup the $150 than the $300. The dice come around to you and you look at your rack and see that you are only down $150, you can easily say to your self, I can come back from this.

Learn and have the discipline to learn how to lose less to win more!

Dominator

Posted by: DavidM on September 2, 2016, 2:15 pm

When I was taking the GT classes, how to bet was not stressed as much as it is now. I was fortunate to have my own personal Savant. Dad will be 97 in December. His exact words: "If ya don’t bet right, ya gonna bust out." I listened. He and I critique most of my trips. Wish I could get him to go with me, but "I’m not sharp enough now." is his answer. His tutelage reads like the GT mantra.

How, and when to bet…with a proper bank, has helped me much more than my shot. I grade me a 6 on a scale of 10. THIS AIN’T EASY

Shoot with passion….anyway
David M

Posted by: the gman on September 2, 2016, 10:01 pm

bman

you said "Hard nine just because some one sets the dice doesn’t mean they are any better than random, in fact in another discussion we agreed that some one could be influencing the dice in a negative fashion, making them worse than random."

about time this is suggested because it is right on. If one thinks they can throw more 6 & 8 than random it is also
reasonable to assume you can throw more sevens when you are not on.

Here is the real problem we face…. all of us got on here and took classes because we liked to play
craps….there is the problem in a nutshell.. we like to play, we develop a shot that works on some
tables or may be on our home table…. but as is the case here, we have one 16′ table…way to long, we have
another new 14 foot table with the very big bouncy pyramids anything that even touches the back wall
is gone… we have a 12 footer that is very busy and I don’t like to play on a full table, hard to get your
best spot to shoot and other considerations and you can go to vegas every month to play.

You either quit playing or play very little or force your shot on tables it is not working on.
I feel that leads to many of the loss problems, and is just one of the situations a person faces.
These questions are hard to answer, even for a group like GTC which has incredible instructors…

gman

Posted by: Finisher on September 3, 2016, 6:59 pm

Gman I agree.

Posted by: brothelman on September 4, 2016, 1:54 am

No it has been answered many times only play when you have an advantage, if you want to win.

If you love to play take the time and just go play where you have the advantage.

Now you can always just play to have fun that is the other option.

Posted by: billythekid on September 4, 2016, 3:38 am

I haven’t played just for fun in quite a while. When I do the game that I look for ( which is becoming very scarce) is a $1 min and 10X odds game. There were many in Vegas in years past but there may be just a couple now in very small out of the way places. The point is that having fun is not about the money but about the fun so I look for very low min games with higher odds so that if someone has a hand there is a chance to progress bets to a higher level using the higher odds multiple is great fun.
If you want to play for fun then find the cheapest game and highest odds that you can so that the fun doesn’t cost much.
Some places that MIGHT still have the game that I like in Las Vegas are;
Jokers Wild
Club Fortune
The places than might have a min less than $5
Excalibur
Fremont
Golden Gate
Fiesta Henderson??
Casino Royale I believe still has 100X odds but for a $5 min
Bman may know of more
BTK

Posted by: Finisher on September 4, 2016, 4:08 pm

I may be a little different .I thought that if I built a table they will come . Like in the movie . Well when they come I become the crew .But it is still FUN to play by myself except in Summer 100 or hotter .It also was fun making the table with the help of some on this site . Some on this site have stopped by to practice in route to Vegas tho.
Fun is winning also so if I do happen to get on a long roll it is fun any way .I am not angry if I leave the table with a loss after 6 or more hrs. play .Since my stop loss is half my bye in which is 200 for bye in .I know that I play way toooooo long .
Maybe after I learn to control the dice more I will get more upset but only time will let me know about that .
So I hope we ALL have fun win or loose less and have fun doing it . For Bman just remember the 20 commandments ,it makes for a better game over ALL.
Good Rolling.

Posted by: brothelman on September 4, 2016, 8:00 pm

3 dollar games palace station Freemont samstown 4 queens boulder station sunset station all very late at night or early am lets say ABOUT 3AM TO 9 10 AM Colorado has all kinds of them from what I understand so a great trip to go have fun