The discussion about betting Pass/Don’t Pass (Doey-Don’t) came up and was discussed in the Memphis seminar. Here is Skinny’s analysis.
NFF
by Skinny » 19 Dec 2012 11:40
You will lose twice as much betting the doey-don’t for $5 each way than if you just bet $5 on the pass or don’t pass.
I realize it is counter intuitive since the 12 comes up so seldom in a random game. After all, the expected one time out of every 36 rolls seems like it hardly ever happens. But in fact you do not lose all that much with only a single pass or single don’t pass bet either. It only seems like we lose more on the pass or don’t pass because one hardly ever only makes a single wager. It is often combined with odds and other wagers. Thus it seems like we lose so much on a seven out that the pass line appears to be a high loss wager.
But the math never lies. Casinos depend on it. They build multimillion dollar buildings, pay salaries of many workers and make a tidy profit all based on the math of the game. We need to get in the habit of depending on the math the same way the casino moguls do if one expects to have a chance at being successful in this game that is stacked against us by the math. Let us look at how the math works on the pass, don’t pass and doey-don’t wagers in an attempt to show how the pass or don’t pass is really a pretty low risk wager in and of itself.
If you were to make 1980 wagers on the pass line, you could expect to win your bet 976 times and lose it 1004 times. Hence you could expect to lose only 28 pass line wagers out of 1980. As an aside, 28 divided by 1980 equals .0141 or 1.41% which is the house advantage on the pass line. So if you were to bet $1 on the pass line 1980 times you could expect to lose only $28 out of $1980 wagered.
Now if the house did not bar the twelve on the don’t pass and you made 1980 wagers on the don’t you could expect the exact opposite. You would expect to win 1004 wagers and lose 976 wagers. Since the house does not want you to have an advantage on the don’t, they bar the twelve and make it a push when the 12 comes out. You can expect to see 55 twelves in 1980 don’t pass wagers. Thus we have to take away 55 of the twelves from the 1004. You can expect to win on the don’t 949 times and lose 976 times. Out of 1980 wagers you can expect to lose 27 times on the don’t pass. As an aside, 27 divided by 1980 equals .0136 or 1.36% which is the house advantage on the don’t pass wager. So if you were to bet $1 on the don’t pass line 1980 times you could expect to lose only $27 out of $1980 wagered.
But if you were to bet the doey-don’t 1980 times you would have to bet $1 on the pass and $1 on the don’t pass. Since we know the 12 is expected to come up 55 times, you could expect to lose $55 when playing the doey-don’t 1980 times. Those of you who are astute in math may notice that you will have lost $55 out of $3960 wagered. Thus the house advantage on the doey-don’t is also a low 1.39%. But the problem is you have to make two wagers on the doey-don’t vs. only one wager on the pass or don’t pass. So even though the house advantage is about the same you have to bet twice as much on the doey-don’t and therefore can expect to lose twice as much.
You see even though it seems like the twelve hardly ever comes up and it actually does not come up all that often. After all one time out of every 36 rolls is not a frequent occurrence. The pass line or don’t pass line do not lose all that much either. A house advantage of 1.41% or 1.36% means the frequency of loss is fairly low. When Frank says to make only one wager on a random roller for the minimum he is giving you sound advice. Your frequency of loss will be as low as it is on the doey-don’t but you will only be wagering half as much. We get into trouble when we let our "intuition" take over. Our memories are selective. We remember the time we lost a pass line wager 10 times in a row or 20 times out of 25. But we tend to forget when a shooter makes 5 passes before establishing his point or makes 10 passes along with making 4 points. It is a cyclical game because that is the nature of randomness. But in the long run the math will hold up. Over the long haul of your lifetime of gaming you can expect to lose 7 cents for every $5 you ever wagered on the pass or don’t pass on random rollers. Those are the facts and they will hold up over your lifetime if you play as much as most on this board tend to play over your lifetime. Your memory or "intuition" will not alter the math of the game. So stick with the best bets and follow the advice of GTC. They have thought this through and used it in practice. It is sound advice based on mathematics and experience of some very serious individuals who collectively have developed a "best practice" set of guidelines.
Replies:
Posted by: RFink13 on April 21, 2016, 2:59 am
I never was a fan of it but I tried it and didn’t like it.
Posted by: Dr Crapology on April 21, 2016, 3:17 pm
We did discover one fun thing with the doey/don’t. After the five count you make three come/don’t come bets with odds on the the come side. When the shooter makes his point we did this. Since we did not have the point and our come bet odds were not working, we would lay the odds on all three don’t come numbers for the come out roll only. Since the don’t bet and odds are working (the opposite of the do side) the shooter can only pick off one bet but you can win all three bets should he throw a 7. You win the don’t odds, the do odds are not working and returned and the base come/don’t come are a wash. When the shooter sets a new point we took the lay odds down. A sweet deal, or so we thought. But as Skinny points out it is only a very short run win with a long run loss of a large amount. But it was fun when we did not know any better.
Rose and Dos
Posted by: Finisher on April 21, 2016, 4:10 pm
I still believe that we all loose more then 7 cents since I have never had a loss or win of 7 cents .I do believe in Skinnys math tho .He is right about that .
I like it when craps is fun and winning is fun as others say .It also is a lot of work for the dealers to have to put up with .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂
Posted by: HardNine on April 21, 2016, 4:35 pm
Posted by: Tin Sandwich on September 25, 2016, 2:38 pm
1.) Some casinos (like those on cruise ships) only offer 2x odds. This leaves the house with a 0.61 edge on pass line bets with odds. I normally bet at least 5x odds at land based casinos which reduces the house edge to 0.33. By betting $25 on the Don’t Pass and $30 on the Pass line I can effectively bet up to 6 times the odds on the $5 difference and reduce the house edge significantly. The house still enjoys a 0.05% edge (0.0141-0.0136) on the P/DP but the advantage gained by betting 5x odds makes up for that. It will also increase your comps a lot faster if you’re into that. If the house offers 5x odds or greater, I do not recommend this strategy.
2.) If I am at a new casino or if I just want to warm up a bit and get a feel for the table I will bet $5 on each DP and Pass, throwing a dollar on the 12 during the come out roll. It’s a cheap way to warm up or check out the table and I have, on rare occasion, won a few dollars.
Posted by: Skinny on September 25, 2016, 8:05 pm
"Tin Sandwich" wrote: First of all, I will concede that the Pass/Don’t Pass bet by itself does not make a lot of sense. You lose one out of every 36 come out rolls and there is no way to win. I have, however found it useful in a couple of cases.
1.) Some casinos (like those on cruise ships) only offer 2x odds. This leaves the house with a 0.61 edge on pass line bets with odds. I normally bet at least 5x odds at land based casinos which reduces the house edge to 0.33. By betting $25 on the Don’t Pass and $30 on the Pass line I can effectively bet up to 6 times the odds on the $5 difference and reduce the house edge significantly. The house still enjoys a 0.05% edge (0.0141-0.0136) on the P/DP but the advantage gained by betting 5x odds makes up for that. It will also increase your comps a lot faster if you’re into that. If the house offers 5x odds or greater, I do not recommend this strategy.
2.) If I am at a new casino or if I just want to warm up a bit and get a feel for the table I will bet $5 on each DP and Pass, throwing a dollar on the 12 during the come out roll. It’s a cheap way to warm up or check out the table and I have, on rare occasion, won a few dollars.
Tin Sandwich,
I hate to burst your bubble, but your calculations are not quite accurate. You are not gaining anything by betting the DP, you are only costing yourself more money.
Let’s take a look at this by doing the calculations through brute force. I don’t know if the casinos that offer 2X odds allow you to "push the house" on a 3 unit bet of $30 or not. Hence, I will do the calculations both ways. In the first case I will take $60 in odds on each number. In the second case I will take $60/80/100 in odds on the 4/5/6 and 10/9/8 respectively. I will do the calculations for 1980 wagers to determine how much you wager and how much you lose under both scenarios with a random throw.
Case 1 – taking $60 in odds on each number.
Wagering $30 on the PL will result in betting $59,400 on the PL, $79,200 in odds for a total of $138,600 wagered on the PL plus odds.
I can expect to lose $840 in the 1980 PL wagers with $60 in odds on each number.
Wagering $25 on the DP will result in betting $49,500 on the DP. I can expect to lose $675 in the 1980 DP wagers.
I can expect to lose a total of $1,515 out of a total of $188,100 wagered. That results in a House Advantage of .81%.
Case 2 – taking $60/80/100 in odds on the 4/5/6 and 10/9/8 respectively.
Wagering $30 on the PL will result in betting $59,400 on the PL, $110,000 in odds for a total of $169,900 wagered on the PL plus odds.
I can expect to lose $840 in the 1980 PL wagers with $60/80/100 in odds on the 4/5/6 and 10/9/8 respectively.
Wagering $25 on the DP will result in betting $49,500 on the DP. I can expect to lose $675 in the 1980 DP wagers.
I can expect to lose a total of $1,515 out of a total of $218,900 wagered. That results in a House Advantage of .69%.
Now if you were to only bet the PL with odds without any DP wager, here is what the results would be:
Case 1 taking $60 in odds on each number.
Wagering $30 on the PL will result in betting $59,400 on the PL, $79,200 in odds for a total of $138,600 wagered on the PL plus odds.
I can expect to lose $840 in the 1980 PL wagers with $60 in odds on each number.
I can expect to lose a total of $840 out of a total of $138,600 wagered. That results in a House Advantage of .61%.
Case 2 taking $60/80/100 in odds on the 4/5/6 and 10/9/8 respectively.
Wagering $30 on the PL will result in betting $59,400 on the PL, $110,000 in odds for a total of $169,900 wagered on the PL plus odds.
I can expect to lose $840 in the 1980 PL wagers with $60/80/100 in odds on the 4/5/6 and 10/9/8 respectively.
I can expect to lose a total of $840 out of a total of $169,400 wagered. That results in a House Advantage of .50%.
So as you can see, by betting the PL alone with odds, you are able to reduce the HA by a greater amount (case 1 – .81% to .61%; case 2 – .69% to .50%) than if you were to add a $25 DP wager along with it.
But more importantly, you can expect to lose only $840 on the PL alone instead of $1,515 when you combine it with a DP wager. The DP wager does not help you lower the HA and it will definitely cost you more money.
The same thing is true for your situation 2) when you want to warm up on a new table. While it may seem like you are losing less by adding a $5 DP wager to your $5 PL along with a $1 on the 12 during the come out, this will also cost you more money in the long run. You can expect to lose approximately 7 cents for each $5 PL wager for a random throw. You can expect to lose an additional 7 cents for each $5 DP wager you add to your PL wager and approximately 14 cents on each dollar you wager on the 12 during the come out roll. With a $5 PL, $5 DP and $1 twelve, your expected loss on a random throw is 28 cents. With a $5 PL wager, your expected loss is only 7 cents.
You are much better off simply betting $5 on the PL to warm up. In the long run you will lose far less money.
