My simple answer is to take a look at his dice. Bet on what you see. We all have our days both positive and negative. If he’s on I’m going to go for it

If you believe in your friend’s ability/stats then you should bet on him from the start. An 8.0 SRR has an edge over the house. To not bet when there is an edge over the house is to miss opportunity. Granted, if you observe that his throw is "off" during a given session, then you should back off your betting.

An SRR of 8.0 means the shooter averages 1 seven every 8 throws. Put another way the shooter has a 12.5% chance of throwing a seven on any given throw. Because the dice throws are individual discrete events that are strung together, the chance of throwing a seven are the same on roll 7, 17, 27, etc. Each instance the chance is 12.5%. Because of this it is a mistake to think that once the shooter reaches roll 5 there will most likely be only 3 more rolls. The shooter has as much chance of having 8 additional rolls whether you start your measure on roll 1 or 5 or 15, etc.

PS As a hand extends there are factors like distractions, fatigue, anxiety that can alter a shooters ability. Maintaining a focus on the flow and altering of a situation and how it effects the shooter should be considered when betting as a hand progresses.

Dough boy gets my vote!

Now ask the question do you know what a good shoot should looks like, sounds like, how should it react for the table you are on.

Is his shot landing in the same area every time?

Is it staying in that area?

Is it bouncing back straight off the wall or is it going to the sides, Are both dice hitting the wall?

Getagrip that is an excellent question.

Mathematically if you are playing with someone who has a statistical edge over the house then betting on them every chance you get could possibly result in a positive win over the long run. I will explain why I say possibly at the end. However, I believe there are other factors to take into consideration as well.

When I am playing I want to win on my rolls not necessarily to try to make money on other people’s hands. I want to be able to optimize my ability to throw well. In order to do that, if I get in a hole because I bet on other DI’s it will make it that much harder for me to maintain a positive attitude and shoot well. It will put more pressure on me and will adversely affect my mental state. Conversely if I am ahead because I made money on the other DI’s I will be happy but that will not enable me to shoot better. I still need to perform well in order to do that and winning on someone else does not help me accomplish that.

I played with the best shooters that there are and I would five count them all the time. In addition I expected them to five count me. If they did not, I thought they were taking an unnecessary gamble. I five count other DI’s because it will minimize my losses when they are having an off day. Yes, it will cut into my wins (slightly) when they are on but I am willing to take a lesser win rather than experience a bigger loss when they are not on.

Now for the exception. I got to know the shot of the folks I played with very well. I could tell when their shot was working and they were focused. If I saw that on one of their beginning throws I might start betting on them before the five count was completed. If I saw it later in the session or I thought they were improving at the end of their previous hand, I might bet on them from the very beginning on their next turn. However, those situations were not the norm. The vast majority of the time I would use the five count on all my friends.

As for myself, I knew I had a statistical edge and I would bet on myself from the start every time. My logic being that I was the only person on whom I could wager every single time I threw. Therefore I could win my edge over the lifetime of my throwing. With other DI’s I could not be sure that I would have an advantage betting on them every time I played with them since I would not be playing with them every single time they played. That is the reason I used the word possibly in my initial answer up above when I said, "betting on them every chance you get could possibly result in a positive win".

The overriding factor for me is I want to make money on my abilities. I practice, put in the work to develop my skill and expect it to pay off for me in the long run. I credit Dom for teaching me this. I did not start out with that attitude. Like many of you I was impressed when I saw a good shooter go on a tear. I thought I could make it if I bet on all the good shooters. I learned from experience betting on them from the start was very costly when my friends were not shooting well. I learned from Dom that it is more important to rely on oneself. In fact, I have seen him be miserable when he did not shoot well even though he had a winning session because the rest of us shot lights out. I believe that is the proper attitude to have if you want to come out ahead. You need to protect your bankroll so that you can use it to bet on yourself. Five count everyone to do that with the exceptions I have noted above.

Thanks Skinny for your excellent response and input. Everything you have said here is right on the money.

Here is my thinking on this great question.

I am not looking to make money on other shooters whether they may be tremendous GTC. Shooters. So called dice influencers or chicken feeders. I 5 count everyone and only look to make money on my hands. I have the confidence in my toss tab make $$$$.

Looking at the math of the 5 count we know 57 % of all shooters do not throwthe dice 5 times before the 7 appears. This style of play saves us money so we can bet more on ourselves.

Another great thread on this topic. I was tending to agree with the previous comments, and on Dom’s thread, he’s trying to get this point across. Skinny, you’ve just brought your historical experience into play, and along with Dom’s comments in that thread, this hit me like Coyote getting the anvil. The quarter in the pocket on this point and perhaps some other record keeping seem to be in order!

On

"Skinny" wrote: I want to be able to optimize my ability to throw well. In order to do that, if I get in a hole because I bet on other DI’s it will make it that much harder for me to maintain a positive attitude and shoot well. It will put more pressure on me and will adversely affect my mental state.

I know what you mean. When I buy in for say $600, I split my buy to 500/100 with the 100 for CFers. Maybe in a group setting a little more, but this allows me to set aside a stop limit on others to play after the 5 count, and my own stash that’s large enough to not have to think about a single losing hand.

Love the threads!!!

"Skinny" wrote: With other DI’s I could not be sure that I would have an advantage betting on them every time I played with them since I would not be playing with them every single time they played. That is the reason I used the word possibly in my initial answer up above when I said, "betting on them every chance you get could possibly result in a positive win".

As I was reading this question, and an excellent question BTW Getagrip, my comment was going to be Skinny’s quote above. If you are playing with the person each and every time they play craps you would be there to take advantage of their profitable SRR. My guess is that you are not on each of his or her’s rolls. So if you are not there for every single time this particular DI is throwing the dice, you should use the 5-count on them. I hope all of you understand this very important point!

A profitable SRR as you stated in your question is statistical over a long period of time. If you played everyone of his hands you would be there on the short rolls and on the long rolls that gives him the SRR of 8. If you are not on every session he plays, well you are in a crap shoot.

This very subject is discussed in our three betting seminars that now have during the seminars. Betting is so important that we want everyone to attend them, refresher and advanced because as someone stated in this post or in another, a light needs to go off in your head about this.

Your attitude has to be that you are going to the casinos to win on your throw. This is different than what most of you thought about in the past. You would go to the casino hoping to have a good roll but also that if you didn’t, someone else would. Those thoughts have to leave you. It is you and you alone that you want to make money on. It is you and you alone that knows without a shadow of a fact that you are playing with an edge … that is if you are tracking if you have an edge. I tend to think that many of you don’t track to see if you are playing with an edge.

As Skinny said, I play only with the best in the world. Some of the people I play with I am not on everyone of their rolls. Right now three people that I play with are playing down South, Mr Finesse, Doc, and Rose. When I play with them in AC I will use the 5-count on them! Even if one of their rolls happens to be a monster, on their next roll I will again use the 5-count! Why, because I am not on everyone of their rolls.

Thanks again Getagrip for a great question. I hope this continues. Getting our students to bet properly and to stop buying "betting systems" is very important to me. I have had students as well as some of our instructors say to me that we are spending too much time on betting in class and that the refreshers and advanced have heard it already. Well I don’t see it when I see students play and when I hear about former students that have moved away from GTC.

Just the other day a group of students that came to our seminars connected with me on LinkedIn. I even have their picture on my wall at the dinner we all went to. They came to our seminar about 7 years ago. I asked them if they are still playing craps and their response was yes, of course we are, but we now throw as a random roller! Their reason was that they don’t practice that much anymore so why do it.

I just leaned back in my desk chair and felt so bad. I felt bad because I didn’t get through to them. #1 … If they threw like they were taught I am sure that their rolls would be better because "taking care with the dice" will give longer rolls. #2 … If the bet properly and used the 5-count they would lose less, no question about it! My gut tells me that they used our methods for awhile but didn’t see any improvements in their winnings. My gut tells me that the reason they didn’t see any improvement in their winnings is not because they couldn’t throw the dice but they didn’t bet properly.

I will make it GTC’s mission to get all of you that love to play this great game to use the GTC throw and to understand why we say to bet a certain way

Dominator

Thanks everyone for all of the great answers! I learned a lot from every one of them and I appreciate the effort to answer my long post.

My question was mostly theoretical in nature as I don’t have anyone I play with regularly with a SRR of 8 but it was a nice round number to use to explain how I was thinking. I knew there was something that I just wasn’t thinking about correctly in all of this. Skinny really nailed it when he pointed out my flawed thinking—I wouldn’t be betting on every toss for that theoretical person. Duh!!

I totally agree that I am at a table to make money on my own toss. I do keep stats and signature numbers if you will, so I do feel confident enough to bet into my advantage even though it is not present on every toss of the dice.

Thinking about Dom’s conversation with past GTC who now play as random rollers. Even if you are not tossing with an advantage yet, how do you go back to not using the GTC toss once you learn it? I can’t even MAKE myself just flip the dice at the table. Honestly, I don’t know how they do that!

If anyone else wants to add an answer or another question to this thread then bring it on. I don’t mind sharing this thread with anyone else who has 5 count questions. 😀 Thanks again everyone! GTC is the best!

Dice are Out!

"getagrip" wrote:
Thinking about Dom’s conversation with past GTC who now play as random rollers. Even if you are not tossing with an advantage yet, how do you go back to not using the GTC toss once you learn it? I can’t even MAKE myself just flip the dice at the table. Honestly, I don’t know how they do that!
Dice are Out!

AMEN! and to me it goes more beyond not being able to just flip the dice. I see too many people flip the set mid hand, back and forth. I know I’m still in my infancy as far as my DI capabilities, but especially in a group setting, don’t take others out because you think you have an edge that puts more of other’s money at risk. I throw one way, and don’t change on any come out. There’s no way to communicate to others what you’re doing when you’re down the table and the dice are covered, and I don’t watch every set anyway. I may want to turn my bets off if you’re doing something funky, how does one communicate that? Answer: You don’t because you don’t do it (change)!

GTC!, GTC!, GTC!

One quick funny story. I went to [Streams] by O’hare today, was in line when they opened (only open 9am to 7am per ‘sensible’ IL laws.. I got SL1 on the 14′ with $5 min, not knowing how they opened the tables and it’s a mad rush to get spots so couldn’t go to less crowded $10 table. Anyway, dice start at spot 1 since everyone gets to the table at the same time. SL1 is spot 9 (of course!). I finally get the dice and throw a sweet 17 , 4 point fire, 2 place hits hand for 2+ bennies. I was setting a point and hitting within 2-3 rolls, getting the table excited, couple of nice comments, and the nice box person (she really was nice), says I need to watch it or they’re all going to start believing [setting dice] works!!! Too funny!

I love this game and love what GTC has done… keep this and Dom’s thread going!!!

It’s been a long time and Dom won’t remember it, but one time I joined Dom, Frank, and Nick at night at a table, I think it was Mirage in Vegas. The three of them and a student who had bought a table from Dom and had taken two or three classes were at The SR side of the table. None of them, except Nick nick had any kind of a roll and yes I qualified each of them before making my first bet. they each rolled at least twice..

Nick was the first to leave to catch a plan and Dom and Frank left shortly there afterThe fellow who had bought the table tossed one more time after the three of them had left.

I don’t remember how I tossed, so there by believe it was a nothing.

Noah

I got involved with GTC to make money. I had gambled most of my life mostly betting football and counting cards and then while watching TV late at night I saw some guy (Dom) on the History Channel showing how he could control the dice.

I started playing craps in 2000 and always thought about the physics of the game, thinking there must be some way to "influence" the dice. So I did an internet search and found GTC. I did all the reading I could before my first class and what sunk in deep was the math around every shot including the 5 count. From the beginning I haven’t second guessed the 5 count on ALL random rollers. If a random roller comes out with three straight hard six’s (which I’ve seen) I still don’t put my money out until the 5 count has been completed if at all. If you understand the math, why, why, why would you want to bet on a random roller?

Some would tell me they had "a feeling". Really? Although, before GTC I actually believed in hot and cold tables because there is SO much superstition around this damn game. Or an even better one was, looking at someone and sure that they were lucky so I better have my money loaded up on the table right away so I don’t miss a big score. That probably worked once! 😐

Looking back all their dice looked awful 😀 .I know I am swaying away from Getagrips question (She and I used to play a lot and have had many conversations about the nuances of the game) but I think its more important for people to stop fighting the math. There just isn’t a gray area when it comes to the math so I never understand why so many fight it.

Now have I bet before the 5 count is finished? Yes, but only on some of the best dice controllers out there. But when I look back at betting before the 5 count my results were mixed, at best, even on the best dice controllers. I think it comes down to most, if not all of us, were/are gamblers and the mentality of a gambler is counter to what GTC teaches us . If you are going to win, you have to stop fighting the math and accept the fact that in the long run you will win if you bet properly or as the phrase you hear here over and over again is bet into your advantage.

Getagrip I hope you have been smiling while reading this 😀

The Contractor

"The Contractor" wrote: Some would tell me they had "a feeling". Really? Although, before GTC I actually believed in hot and cold tables because there is SO much superstition around this damn game. Or an even better one was, looking at someone and sure that they were lucky so I better have my money loaded up on the table right away so I don’t miss a big score. That probably worked once! 😐

Looking back all their dice looked awful 😀 .I know I am swaying away from Getagrips question (She and I used to play a lot and have had many conversations about the nuances of the game) but I think its more important for people to stop fighting the math. There just isn’t a gray area when it comes to the math so I never understand why so many fight it.
The Contractor

I love this quote —-
WHY FIGHT THE MATH!

Dom

Contractor, I don’t know if Getagrip was smiling as she read your post. But I was grinning from ear to ear enjoying every word. It does my heart good to know that some folks, like yourself, get what we are trying to tell them from our knowledge and experience. Best of all you actually put it into practice.

After all the signature I use on all my posts reads:

Bet smart, the math always wins. Smart players are the luckiest players.

The Contractor 5 counts everyone. I know this because he even 5 counts me! 🙄 🙄

Catch you later!

It must be a relief for you instructors when you get a student like Contractor who gets math to the core of his being! Unfortunately, I am not up at the top of the math ladder with him but somewhere on the middle rungs.

I did smile upon reading his response—in fact I had to laugh! 😀 Contractor is a great all around guy and a great guy to play at the Craps table with. I remember distinctly one of the first couple of times we played together and I wanted to get into a Craps discussion with him. I don’t remember the exact question or the exact math answer but it went something like this. Me: What do you think blah,blah,blah? Contractor: The math answer is 5 and that is all you need to know about it! I chuckle every time I think about that! Obviously, I then understood he has a "beautiful mind" when it comes to math.

GetaGrip I thought I would tell you a little story . My vary first encounter with a GTC person was in Laughlin I did not know what his SRR was nor did I ask . But he said to me that he was trying out a new grip so most differently use the 5 count on his roll . So I did and won the bet . It was a come bet and he rolled a 7 for a win for me and he lost . He also left with his friend and I did not see him the rest of the day . Later I did meet up with him at a coin show and did talk some more but never got to roll again .So that was my fist time using the 5 count and it did work just not the way that I had hoped .
Now that I have taken the class and know a little more I hope that we can roll again some time .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

[quote="Finisher"So that was my fist time using the 5 count and it did work just not the way that I had hoped .
Now that I have taken the class and know a little more I hope that we can roll again some time .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Actually it did work 😀 When a random roller gets the dice and after the 5-count I put out a come bet, you can see my lips move —– 4/3, 5/2

Dom

Dom you got me laughing . I was WITH DaPoker he was the one that said I should use the 5 count on him . I know you have rolled with him before .
Is he still around ?
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂