Unscientific: more than 35 rolls… as you noted, it’s being added to many, they just added at "pony" place in NW IN. On my 35 a week ago, I didn’t have the 12. 😆

The interesting discussion, beyond your question on the house odds, is how we, as controlled shooters, really shouldn’t be completing that feature bet. Now in reality, many of us, and me especially on Ace-Deuce for some reason, do indeed throw them, but should be much lower than the odds would dictate on random rollers. So what are the odds for controlled shooters?

The house edge for a random roller on the Small or Tall bet is 7.76% when the bet pays 34 to 1 (may be expressed as 35 for 1).

The house edge for a random roller on the All bet is 7.46% when the bet pays 175 to 1 (may be expressed as 176 for 1).

The probability a random roller can hit the Small or Tall bet is 0.026354. Hence the probability of a loss is 0.973646.

The probability a random roller can hit the All bet is 0.005258. Hence the probability of a loss is 0.994742.

Bman

See now you have your answer. That’s the difference between just an old
guy like me and an old smart guy like Skinny.

However, we have a couple of the ATS tables here . I like to give the crew
a $1 on it and I still place the $1 on my chip when I shoot.

When our team plays I bet $6 across on that bet if our shots look like
they are effective. Last time out I bet on 25 hands for a cost of $150
and made $204 for a decent return. We had six shots or more to win
the full bet two times but could not get it done.
On most players it is like the fire bet, unless your very lucky, by the end
of the night the 7-9% house edge gets you,

Last Feb. at the Gold Coast Sue wanted me to play cards with her which
for me always had a bad ending. So I lost $50 while watching their west
table and no one on SL1.. one guy on the end was shooting. I got mad that
I lost $50 right away as usual and went to the table. he was on the end of
a roll where he made the 6 point fire bet, and hit every one of the
repeater bets on that table , that is 2,3,4,5,6 . The dealers talked the
guy into making the bets, he had no idea of, and he hit them all.

I have to admit it was fun watching him get paid, he had no idea what
he had just done, or that it would never happen to him again the rest
of his life, or mine, or yours.

gman

So now what is the chances of a true, a true controlled shooter, I believe that they are greater than that of a random roller, why?

I have had monster hands and almost always they result in to or three numbers being thrown never making a point, so based on the fact knowing that I would also have to throw the 2,3 11,12 four numbers that are way off the beaten path I believe it more difficult.

Then there is the times that I have been dialed in and I just starting picking off different points 4 to the fire then right back with 5 then making it then posting the 6 to the fire all by changing the sets and having control , but to do this I had to change my set to produce the numbers I was looking for, if a true controlled shooter was willing to do that and his head was in the right place to do so I now believe that it would be easier for a controlled shooter to do it.

Now comes the tuff question are you a true controlled shooter, do you hit the same spot every time when you are on, do your dice stay in the same area of the table each throw, do you repeat number and combinations to the point that you know how to set your dice to get a number?

The bottom line is this are you there for fun or to make money?

Bman

There is a different way to look at this. If you have the ability to change sets
and get a different set of dominate numbers, which I think we all agree
is possible, then we can have certain sets which produce more craps numbers
than a set which produces more 6’s say like a 3v. I have seen a couple of
players set for the craps numbers on the come out trying to get 1 or more
out of the way . You make a point , go back to the set for craps numbers,
on the come out.

A come out set of 6/5 / 6/5 or 6/5 5/6 or 3/1 1/3 is far better for
getting craps results than a 2v or 3 v . Bang out a couple of
craps number on the come out and go back to your normal play
set. Different game than a fire bet.

If you have a good controlled GTC roll, the sky is the limit for what
you can do with an ATS bet.

gman

GMan,

In full disclosure, I very rarely bet any of the feature bets in a casino so I am certainly no authority. Occasionally I will bet one as an entertainment bet. I personally am not a good enough dice influencer to expect to overcome that type of house edge on a consistent basis.

IMHO though I have to disagree with you. I do understand that the tactic that most ATS bettors use is trying to hit the horn numbers on the Come Out roll. I guess I basically can see this play but I have to wonder about the thinking in giving up the table minimum on the Pass Line or even the Don’t pass line just to hit the horn number. Now, if trying to hit a Yo then that does make sense. I guess we could go further and place a middle table bet to protect our Pass line bet but then more money is spent on the hedge bet. Now Pass or Don’t Pass is a flat bet so not much edge there to win or lose. It just looks to me like people think they are only spending $3 from their bankroll on this feature bet when in reality they are spending around $15 more just to get that horn number on the Come Out. I guess if your bankroll is large enough then you may not care about the extra money spent and if you happen to hit the bet then that extra money is covered. Just thinking about all of the times it is NOT hit.

Skinny, I think I need your math smarts on this. My math skills are pretty basic so I am sure I am missing some big part of this picture. Just something to think about. Are people really fooling themselves when they think they are making a lot of money on this bet? Have they truthfully considered all of the expenses involved?

Any thoughts? What am I not considering correctly? Thanks!

Get a grip you bring out an excellent point, one that so few ever consider and even after they do they totally dismiss it.

Lets say the 6 shooters hit just nine crap number during there come out that would be a total loss of 9.6 54 take that from the win and you are even.

How many come out sevens occurred during the 25 hands with a set of 6/5 6/5 that put the seven just one click away on any side of the dice, and the all bet losses on come out sevens also.

So we are back to the question are you playing to win or to have fun?

"HardNine" wrote: Unscientific: more than 35 rolls… as you noted, it’s being added to many, they just added at "pony" place in NW IN. On my 35 a week ago, I didn’t have the 12. 😆

The interesting discussion, beyond your question on the house odds, is how we, as controlled shooters, really shouldn’t be completing that feature bet. Now in reality, many of us, and me especially on Ace-Deuce for some reason, do indeed throw them, but should be much lower than the odds would dictate on random rollers. So what are the odds for controlled shooters?

May I point out that if you had thrown the dice 36 times you would of hit the 12 for the chances of hitting the twelve are 1 in 36, not 35 is a outrageous hand way to go

As most of you know, the only stupid bets I make on a crap table is the Fire Bet and the ATS. This whole idea of changing sets and such doesn’t sit well with me except in certain instances which I will get into.

Players have a tendency when they put out a bet like this or even such bets as the whirl bet, they change their normal set to hit those numbers. It becomes their focus at the table. So they change their set to a Yo set to try to hit the whirl. So you got to ask your self, do you have an edge? Lets say that you do ….. Your SRR is 7 and because of this your edge is 4.75% with 0 X odds. So right there you can’t over come the ATS casino edge. But I digress from this changing sets. Lets say you have a SRR of 8 giving you an edge of 9.54% so you can over come the ATS edge. Now to get this edge, how many primary numbers are you hitting? This is the ultimate question when it comes to changing sets because when you change your set you are trying to hit a primary number. I hope everyone sees this and understands this. Most good shooters with a high SRR don’t hit enough primary numbers to change their set. I wish that people that do change their sets would take the time to calculate how many times they hit a primary number.

I have involved with on games with the guys I play with that have gotten close to hitting the ATS and then change their set in the middle of their point cycle just to hit that last number and 7 out. The roll was going to good, everyone making money and because of a single $1 or what ever on the ATS they changed their set and the roll ended.

So, like I said I do like these two bets, so I will tell you what I do. I believe this is the right way to approach these bets of you do want to bet them. With the ATS if I am 1 away from hitting one of the components on my come out I will change the set. If I throw a 7 because of this, well I lose my ATS bet, but I still have the dice and the roll will continue which is what I want. So only change the set on the come out. If you hit the number you want, great! If not, go back to your point cycle set you have been using and make your point.

Only the Fire Bet, I don’t think about it at all until I have hit 4 to the Fire. Going for that 5th and then 6th number I will change the set to hit one of the primary numbers.

So don’t let this small wager you make on these two bets influence your thoughts. The object of the game is to hold the dice for ever, not making these bets.

Dominator

Ding Ding Ding the light really goes on, I can not tell you how many times I have gotten calls from guys n the middle of a big hand only to change there set and seven out with 600 on the 6or8, they say to me man what was I thinking just a couple of more hits on that number would of been thousands!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Now lets here from some others out there this post is all about what you think maybe your thoughts will help someone there is no right or wrong thought only the learning curve.

Dom, I agree. I will only change my set after I make a point, hopefully on this come out roll I will set the one number I still need. Here is my reasoning. You only get one chance to set a point—unless you hit an 11 or a craps and you can’t lose the dice.

Let’s take the fire bet for example–but this can be true for the STA bet as well. Let’s say you have made 5 to the fire bet and you need to set the 10 on the come out roll for that final number. I will use the 2V for the come out roll only in hopes of increasing the the probability of hitting the 10 to establish this final point. I can’t lose my turn and only lose the base come bets should the 7 occur. In order to set the 10 to complete making all six box numbers to win the fire bet, you must make in on this one come out roll. Assuming you do set the 10 I will then to back to my hard way set which help will protect me in avoiding the 7. I may well get several more rolls to try and make my point of 10, but that’s OK since I will be making money as I will hit many other box numbers along the way.

As you say I want my turn to last forever. Look forward to comments from other players.

A great thread.

Doc

Amen and Amen! My thoughts exactly, and seeing that I’m now getting confidence in my shot, I ONLY use the HW set, so I shouldn’t be hitting the other craps/yo within the statistics for random rollers, but hitting higher % of box numbers.

I know others can use the other sets very effectively to set and hit other numbers, but my first response (to BMan) was in line with being a controlled shooter setting HW only. I concentrate on one thing only, setting a point and banging out box numbers. In my recent 35, I hit 8 each 6/8, finished the small, missed the tall by the 12. I didn’t have money on it but others did, got their $34 or whatever, but I did get my 12 Ben’s out of the roll from an initial outlay of $145 and didn’t really care that I didn’t have money on the STA. I did have $2 on the Fire, but only hit 1 point, and as Dom has stated many times, I was absolutely not thinking about the fire. At my level, I’m happy when I hit the 4th point, but am in no position to even try to set a specific number. I just want a box, hopefully one I’m not hitting a lot so I can bang out the other numbers and cash in.

I hope that I get to the point that I can change a set to do something specific, but when I do, I’ll go right in line with Dom’s thinking. I am not about to increase odds of a 7 during point cycle to hit a bet like that for that small payout relative to what I can make on the box numbers.

Additional thought: When there are Come Bets on the table, and the set is changed, there is an increased risk to all of those bets as well…. is it worth it? I know of one person I shoot with from time to time and I won’t Come Bet on him for the very reason of trying to hit the World/Whirl on every come out.

Hard Nine there is a table in your area that has both atas and the fire bet?

Is there any advantage to playing with someone who goes after the whirl bet, he is wasting a throw changing the momentum of the game attracting ploppies late betters etc. most of all he is not play advantage dice!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

If he is good enough to throw the crap he is good enough to hop the hard ways and hit them now he is making a positive crazy bet and playing to his advantage that hurts no one.

Just my two cents.

BMan,

Agreed on the Whirl/World, but I’ll play folks the way they play, good to have other GTCers regardless, as long as you know what to do / not do on each.

On local STA, yes, the pony shoe in NW Hoosierland just added to their 9 tables. The box people hate them, but at least they still have box people!

I love to see that this post gets a few more views because what we are talking about here is so important. Remember how much of this game is in your mind. Your focus should always be "Numbers, Numbers, Throw numbers!"

All good things will happen if you throw numbers!

Dom

Hi Bman Glad to see this post has gotten some interest .
I got to see it with another GTCer last trip to Vegas , We did not bet it but did see the casino make a lot from it . One guy bet 10.00 on each and on every roller . I think he may have won one time after betting on 12 to 15 players .
As far as betting this bet I am not good enough to make this bet . I mostly bet on myself and leave those bets to others . I also STILL have a little gambler in me for I bet the world on come out rolls unless I have come bets out there .I did have a 17 roll one time before est. a point which I did make enough to cover my little spread for that roll .Like one dealer said he would love to make 2.00 on every roll .I like the fact that even if I roll a 7 my world is a push .
The dealers kid me some times when another roller comes out with a lot of crap numbers tho . Since I don’t bet it on others .
I would try to roll crap numbers on first come out roll IF I was betting on the STA BUT not do it after that . Just hope the ones that I missed will come up . In a long roll crap numbers do come up .If not that is good any way .If you miss that bet by one number you should have made money with the long roll .
Once you make a bet like these you need to forget about them until the end of roll which can be HARD .
mY .01 WORTH .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Bman Have you been to Laughlin . They have this bet and I was there the third day they had it and they were still having trouble as to who pays and who even touches the numbers or chips that they use to mark it .They sure slowed down the game a lot with all this talk . But it should be better by now .
Good post lets see more out of you I know you can help all .
Did you get a chance to meet up with HARDNINE ?
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

I am in agreement with Dom on the fire bet, I have hit many fours and 5’s,and only 1 6 number fire.

I do not like the ATS, and I will not bet it. Just a personal feeling that was backed up by a Box fellow in Biloxi who told me the house makes a lot more money with it than the Fire Bet.

The come out 7 makes for a big profit .How many times did you get lucky on a come out 7 for a win when not setting for them on a come out roll .That now off sets the pay out that the casino makes plus the bet is made again .
That to me is a win win for the casino .
I remember a roll were I lost my come bets like 8 times . That would have been a money maker for casino on the STA BET IF THEY HAD IT BACK THEN .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Okay! Okay! You’ve finally pulled me into this thread.

I often play this bet with GTC-ers shooting. I play it more on myself and have had good success with it. In the course of shooting the pyramids often do their job and skew the dice to give you those non-box numbers. When I find myself having hit the 8, 10, 11, 12 and just needing the 9 I will use a hardway set 5’s on top 4’s facing me to hit the 9. With the hardway set of 5’s all that is needed is one dice to role one extra face.

Believe me I do not go out of my way to hit the ATS but when the opportunity presents itself I go for it. When I do go heavy on myself I treat the ATS like a $14 6 or 8. If you can snipe numbers this is a profitable bet with high payout.

I see a lot of you say you don’t and others say your nuts for trying. In case you missed it I said I do not go out and try to hit it. Only if the opportunity presents it self. Additionally since I only use hardway sets I feel as though I am not violating any of the precious rules/guidelines you’ve laid out.

Like Dom, this is the only prop bet I put extra money on.

Scooter

"Scooter" wrote: Okay! Okay! You’ve finally pulled me into this thread.

"Skinny" wrote: The house edge for a random roller on the Small or Tall bet is 7.76% when the bet pays 34 to 1 (may be expressed as 35 for 1).
The house edge for a random roller on the All bet is 7.46% when the bet pays 175 to 1 (may be expressed as 176 for 1).
The probability a random roller can hit the Small or Tall bet is 0.026354. Hence the probability of a loss is 0.973646.
The probability a random roller can hit the All bet is 0.005258. Hence the probability of a loss is 0.994742.

More math: The fourth post in this column has the math on the average number of rolls it should take for a random roller to hit the Make ’em All (slightly over 61).

So, the way to think of this is as a bell curve with 61 at the top, and 10 as the left edge (the least amount of rolls it could take to hit it). Nearly every one of the All’s that you have hit or seen made are on the left side of that 61. Many of the come-out sevens or seven outs that happen eliminate all of the results on the right side — think how rare a 61 hand is. Every time you see it happen, consider that — you’re beating an average and beating the math, which means you’re getting lucky.

Let me begin with the GTC assertion: that once you have the fundamentals of the throw down, being a controlled shooter is 80% mental. This bet does irreparable damage to the game of craps, and preys on players, mentally. The biggest lure of Fire/Sharpshooter/ATS is the fear that you’ll be missing out if it hits, the envy you’ll feel when those huge stacks of chips get paid to other players and not you. It can get you out of a giant hole you dig with shitty betting, which makes you less likely to change bad habits, too. It’s tough to overcome, and has kept me bleeding my bankroll into the 20+% HA Fire bet for a long time. We’ve had the ATS in Chicagoland for a couple of years, and for many of the players at the table, that’s the entirety of the game now. The side bet is now the main game, and craps is the secondary game.

The loss of rhythm to the game on a come out seven is what drives me crazy. As a controlled shooter, it forces you to maintain your own "mental zone" for longer before you get the dice again. But reading this thread, I realize it’s even worse: it’s pulling your focus away from hitting box numbers and trying to set for a number you wouldn’t ordinarily care about in craps. Even on the come-out roll, it means that you’ll get results that deviate from what you’d ordinarily throw. If you’re unsuccessful in hitting what is most likely to be a Horn number, you’re going to set a point that you have to hit with a different set. So think of it this way: if you’re going to do that anyway, and you think you can do it reliably, why aren’t you betting the 2, 3, yo, 12 and trying to hit them like hop bets on your come-out rolls? We all seem to "get" that middle bets are bad bets with nasty house edges, but now we’re setting for ’em.

How many times have you sevened out when just one little distraction pulls your focus away from what you’re trying to do? Most of them, right?

Makes me sad.

Love the rant Berto and I agree whole heartedly with about 99% of what you say.

Hopefully everyone here can agree at least that these feature bets are "entertainment" bets at best and that no one has the consistent toss to overcome that type of HA in the long run.

That being said I would guess there will always be two groups here. (1) ones that likes the challenge and thrill of these bets and (2) the ones that want to keep pounding a box number over and over and not worry about trying to play these feature bets.

I agree with you that the most damage done by these bets is mental (and monetary). If you can set and forget about the bet then it is up to you but if you have to fret over the numbers needed after each roll then it is definitely in your head and will keep you from success. Place bets and Come bets are so routine that you just put out your next or call your next press automatically and don’t have to really engage your mind in thinking about the betting. That is great in my book.

Another real drain of table rhythm is when the ATS gets close to payment and random rollers (hopefully only them. Players who know the game should already know if they will make a lay bet and how much) have to consider what they have to Lay against the number to make it a win. That is usually a long discussion with there playing partners and the dealers who don’t really want them to make that bet.

Honestly, the absolute worst for me is an Advantage player who is not on the feature bet but notices that others are on it and then changes to try and hit the number for the others. That just makes me crazy. Just play the damn bet if you are going to toss for it!

Now my rant is over! 😀

Boy two rants in a ROW . WHAT A GREAT POST THIS HAS BECOME .But it took some time for the 🙂 🙂 real answers the right ones to come out .
They are both right .When I took the class there was a former student there talking about his betting . He was telling the instructor how he makes money on the 12 and hopping numbers now .That is when I realized that not all are going to do as the instructors teach .
I have also seen players bet the fire but not any other bet and be at 2 tables at the same time .
I feel that you should bet what you feel . Its YOUR MONEY .
Good Rolling.

"Berto" wrote: [quote="Scooter"]Okay! Okay! You’ve finally pulled me into this thread.

. The side bet is now the main game, and craps is the secondary game.

Makes me sad.

So TRUE. If you recall, Berto, during our recent group shoot I was close to both,lacking a number on each. I was on a come out and someone IN OUR OWN GROUP starts yelling TWELVE. I’m thinking WTF!? IT’S A COME OUT!!!

Think of the real game first!

Bman this has gotten 326 views. Great post you started .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Win or lose, every seven you (as a player) give the power to pay or take away chips to the box. They can slow the game down as long as they want to, wait till everyone pretty much sees that you’re iced, distracted, joking, just not focused on rolling: they can wait until you lose your focus. If ATS isn’t there, you throw a couple come out sevens the first couple times you have the dice. You pretty quickly get the dice are back in your hand to correct your mistake.

I guess the question of "waiting around with a small bet on the ATS" versus craps as a long-term money making strategy is at stake here. 🙄 🙄

Okay! Okay! You’ve pulled me in again. That’s twice in a week.

With some many Casinos going to the ATS bet it is hard to find a table that doesn’t have it. It might be best for the "purists" to play only at those venues so their concentration is not disrupted. There’s a few in our area that don’t have it yet. Maybe those "purists" should also play at the casinos that don’t bring chips to the table to restock. Maybe those "purists" should only play at casinos that don’t change sitmen and box persons every 20 minutes. Maybe those "purists" should only play at casinos where there is no shouting at the table. Maybe those "purists" should only play at casinos where the bar maids don’t come by every 15 minutes asking if you need a beverage. Maybe those "purists’ should …..

Well I think you get my point. There are a lot of distractions. Those of you that consider yourselves as a GTC schooled shooter also need to develop that ability to focus given all the distractions that go on in a casino. Don’t use the ATS as a crutch that "it disrupts my shot". Please!! Can you pass me a tissue I’m getting a little misty.

Bottom line – it’s here to stay at least for a while. You can’t hold back the tide". Focus – focus – focus. Practice – practice – practice.

Well thank again for giving everyone the space to rant about those sinister casinos that develop all these tricks to get your money.

Scooter Hey you forgot about the casino that lets anybody ,any time buy in for any amount .
Good RANT .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

I play at the local shoe in NW Indiana. Recently, I was at the high roller table with 10 dollar min and the ATS bet hit a lot. There were four people on the table with occ random person coming in but because you need a high roller’s card, the chicken feeders were kept at bay. IN a recent evening,

1. One dude hit them ALL 2x.On a long 40+ roll, he hit them all and then the TALL.
2. Another dude hit them ALL 1x and part of it 4x.
3. I hit them ALL 1x.

The table was good most of the night and we were all up, so we started putting 40 40 40 or 50 50 50 on that bet. One trader guy put 100 100 100 and hit. We mad more money from the ATS then our pass and come bets with 20 to 100 odds.

We all won big but I can say when the table is cold or the seven comes out on the come out, it sucks your money away.

GreenMachine Is there no limit ?

100 limit on each of the ATS.

I have laid against a number if lets say i have 40 dollars on the small and a six is needed. If a 2,3,11, 12 is needed, I sometimes take my bets off.

"Scooter" wrote: "purists"

And if I’d known this was to descend into a pit of ad-hominem stereotypes (seriously, dude, "riff-raff"? :lol:)

mods, please change Scooter’s name to "Foghorn Leghorn"

"Scooter" wrote: Bottom line – it’s here to stay at least for a while. You can’t hold back the tide". Focus – focus – focus. Practice – practice – practice.

https://youtu.be/sDW6vkuqGLg
Look, dude, I’m all about the practice/analysis/working together aspects of it, but when you follow that with "and bet a 7% HA bet regularly", I get mistrustful.

Okay Okay! You’ve pulled me in for a third time.

I guess those writing classes were worth it after all. That is exactly what I was trying to be "Ad Hominem" toward all the "purists" and "Riff-raff".

I just hate getting beaten over the head by that darn Barnyard Dawg. Looks like it really hurts in the above cartoon. Actually my favorite cartoon character has always been and is FOGHORN LEGHORN. I think I played craps with him once at the Harrahs Mississippi casino near Biloxi.

QUIZ – What kind of chicken is Foghorn?

Scooter

That boy be NO chicken but he is of the Leghorn variety. 😆 😀

Yes. There is a Leghorn variety of chickens. Please don’t confuse Leghorn with ordinary chicken feeders.

I am one of those who never change my set from the hardways. When I am on, I repeat a lot of numbers, which would mean making the fire or ATS very difficult. I would rather make money on myself with my regular toss. I know that if I am trying to make specific numbers on those bets, I will tend to tense up and my toss will be random rather than controlled. I have hit the small or tall a few times, but it was not because I was concentrating on doing it. It just happened. I wasn’t looking at the numbers, and stayed in focus by staring down at the table as I always do. However, I don’t believe I have ever hit the all.

There have been many times that I never made my point, but because of repeating numbers came away with nice profits. I don’t care if I never hit my point if I am making money.

Goddess

"Scooter" wrote: I guess those writing classes were worth it after all. That is exactly what I was trying to be "Ad Hominem" toward all the "purists" and "Riff-raff".

Here is the snootiest response I can think of.