Craps

7 Risk Strategy

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I would like to get some hopefully well-reasoned feedback on a betting progression issue.

Typically, I anchor my play around the 6 and 8. I have heard a couple of different theories in regard to how to get the maximum benefit and least 7 risk doing this. What follows are the two ways I usually like to play a 6/8 anchored game.

In the first example, let’s say I get a $10 PL point of 9 and I decide to place the 6 and 8 for $60 each. First hit on either one, I would put double odds behind the 9. After that, different strategies can follow. You could keep spreading out with $20 place bets on open numbers as the 6 and 8 hit (feeding red chips to the box numbers and racking the green ones), until you have all the box numbers covered. When any box number hits, you bump it to $50. Of course, as you stretch the board, you are only collecting $50 each time the 6 and 8 hit, so you need 3 hits to get even. Another theory says don’t spread out until 5, 6, 7 hits…whatever. I tend lately to go with no spreading beyond the point until you’ve gotten 5 full hits. If the point hits, place it for $25 so you can’t bump it to $50 on the next sequence. If you get a different point than the 9 on the next come out, put the double odds on the new point. Any $50 hit counts for your full hit tally.

Second approach is to have a $10 PL point and a $30 6 & 8. First hit, you bump it to $60. Thereafter, you can play either of the methods above or something different.

Forgetting the different spreading strategies, what are the thoughts of the mathematicians and long time players here? Start small and press up a unit on the first hit or come right out of the box with the unit size you want to be playing? In this instance, press a $30 6 and 8 or just start with $60 to begin with? Obviously, if you 7 out with just a $30 6 and 8 on the board with no hits, you’ve only lost $70. With a $60 6 and 8, you’ve lost $130 on the same 7 out. On the other hand, I’ve had rolls where I hit the 6 once and the 8 once but because I pressed them both on the first hit, I still lost $ and would have broken even with the same 2 hits at $60 each. With the desired unit size of $60 on the board from the start, one hit reduces your net loss to close to the same as a $30 6 and 8 with no hits at the pressed up amount.

Is one of these methods better than the other? If so, why or why not? Is it just a matter of aggressive vs less aggressive? Wong claims you should always press to your desired unit.

Look forward to hearing some philosophy, since I never seem to tire of pondering this stuff.

Alamo


Replies:

Posted by: TheLion on September 4, 2015, 2:37 am

Just curious — is the majority of your play on the East Coast or Las Vegas …..or, somewhere else?

Posted by: ACPA on September 4, 2015, 3:27 am

Actually, if you have an advantage on a bet, i.e. a big enough SRR sand have a proper 401G isn’t the best approach to start with what ever bet level your bankroll can stand the variance, which will come.

Noah

Posted by: Mr Finesse on September 4, 2015, 11:28 am

AlamoTX:

The best advice I could give to you would be for you to attend a GTC Class. The Revised class now contains the best betting lectures one could ever hope for. Invest in a class and I am sure it will be one of the best investments you have ever made.

You have been posting on this board for quite a few years and have asked some very good questions but this inquiry about betting is best handled in one of our classes. GTC now put a lot of emphasis on proper betting strategies. When we revised our curriculum 2 years ago the response and the money being made by students is quite remarkable. Do yourself a favor sign up ASAP, we have 2 classes left for this year Vegas 9/19 & 9/20 and Atlantic City 10/24 & 10/25.

Yes I am promoting GTC but I also like to help other take the $’s from the casino’s.

Hope to see you soon.

Posted by: HardNine on September 4, 2015, 2:08 pm

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Posted by: FourTen on September 4, 2015, 2:54 pm

Hi Guys,
IMHO, before I attend the June Vegas 2015 primer class I used bet a certain way and of course I kept loosing. However, the real reason I wanted to attend the class was to learn how to control the dice. I never ever ever thought about the betting part. BUT, there was MORE to the course then just throwing! Betting, Betting strategies was also taught in class. So, I changed my betting strategies as well and low and behold! My income improved! Not only with when I tossed the dice but with other people shooting as well. So Yeah, I concur with attending a course.
PS, I’ll be attending the refresher class on September 2015!!!

Posted by: getagrip on September 4, 2015, 5:13 pm

Alamo,

Just my opinion here but maybe food for thought for you—positive or negative—only you can decide.

First, I agree with ACPA’s comments.

Second, in my opinion, if you are going to wait until the second hit to take money off the table on a bet then you should be Come betting as the math is better on that bet with odds and also requires two hits to take money off the table. Funny coming from me as I am still not a Come bet convert in my own betting but this is how I see it.

Third, I like your approach of so many hits before you start increasing or maybe just up a unit each hit for a designated number of hits. This is a pretty conservative approach but nothing wrong with that in my mind. You would probably kick yourself if you have a 50 roll hand and feel you didn’t win "enough" but I think the extra money on the shorter hands would outweigh that if you think about it. My only change to your play would be getting to full odds before I spread to more than three numbers. Now I am thinking about Vegas odds and not 10 or 100 X odds when I say full. Of course nothing wrong with full odds any time on any table! You can do the odds in increments or all at once depending on your attitude about play.

Fourth, the things that need to come into consideration for any betting in my mind are definitely bankroll and don’t over bet, math of the game, psychological makeup, and what all of those stats that I have been keeping in practice are telling me. Will the casino tosses go exactly like the practice tosses. No! But no reason to ignore all the info I have gathered in my practice play.

Have a fun trip to Vegas and good luck out there!

Posted by: AlamoTx on September 4, 2015, 7:46 pm

I hate to say this in front of God and the entire list, but one of the reasons I think a number of long time GTC subscribers (real people I have known and played with) have left the list is because of the whole "You need to take a class" Kool-Aid response. I’m kind of sorry I posted this inquiry. I’ve been playing craps since 1982 and am controlling the dice pretty nicely with a video tune up now and then. There are plenty of ‘free’ ways out there to get betting ideas from really good shooters.

Thanks for the replies anyway. I’ll end the topic here, for myself anyway.

Alamo

Posted by: Mr Finesse on September 4, 2015, 8:38 pm

AlamoTx,

One of the things about the GTC staff is we understand what we say and our classes are not for everybody. We embrace when board members post info and thoughts that do not follow our thought process, it helps everything that we talk about here.

GTC is open minded and that is one of the things that helps us grow and offer a better product. When we say or suggest that some one should take another or a Primer class we are just offering what we think will help craps players in general. We have had many who have taken only one class and become very successful and when that happens we are happy. On the other hand some have taken multiple class before they have moved on.

So Alamo keep posting, keep reading and offering your opinion. We respect you and appreciate your input.

Thanks, Bob

Posted by: Chuckman on September 5, 2015, 3:00 am

AlamoTx,

I hope you will continue the conversation. Are these betting methods you are using on yourself and other know trusted shooters? Or are you making a general inquiry as to those betting methods?

I will mull over your original post before I offer some thoughts on it.

There may be a mathematically "best" way to bet, but there is a range of approaches that are "reasonable." Your original post in my opinion falls within the range of reasonable.

Posted by: OneMoonCircles on September 5, 2015, 4:07 am

Alamo,

I have been on this board nearly as long as you I think. I didn’t take a class until 2014. They were teaching the "new" betting methods. I got very little from those sessions. I got a lot in the throwing sessions. For most of the time I have used the 5 count, followed stickman’s progression (up a unit) after I have enough hits to have in my rack as much as I have
on the table before I begin pressing. Reasonably safe, conservative. I am too damned conservative for my own good and that has kept me from making as much as I should. That said,
up a unit is a strong strategy and so I believe is the Big Skinny. If you are a confirmed place bettor then up a unit in my mind is the best way to go. Pick the most comfortable way for yourself and stick with it.

OneMoonCircles

Posted by: HardNine on September 5, 2015, 1:29 pm

Alamo,

Have you tried The Big Skinny as a 95% rule? As you likely know, TBS is not place betting at all but Come betting with spreads first then presses on odds. The one thing about your question that intrigues me is how you decide which version of your place betting you use. This past weekend, NFF and I were discussing the 5 count on various folks and situations and his advice was clear, set a rule and stick to it. I believe there are always exceptions but those would extend the count, not shorten it, or rule out the shooter altogether. Likewise, I want to apply that to my betting. If I use TBS, then use it and stick to it. Again, exceptions, which I think have to do with how my throw is looking, or perhaps another GTCer if that’s who I’m betting on. But I think NFF’s advice is sound.. know how you’re going to bet and stick to it or know your exceptions and stick to them.

You know your edge, and as long as your dice are looking good, bet what your edge says to bet.

Posted by: brothelman on September 5, 2015, 2:58 pm

Alamo I do not like the 6 and 8 place I have found that I only produce one of them during big hands.

Yes I might throw the second one a couple of times but I will throw the 5 9 4 or10 a lot more so it is all about come bets and then placing the number after a couple of bets and putting up another come bet, kind of goes like this.

three come bets if I do not get a repeater I cut the odds down do to the fact I am not yet dialed in when they hit I put out a new come bet,but I am considering cutting back to 2 come bets.to start and leaving the odds.

So when I think about it what I feel best with is what I go with and that depends on my throw because like you I know my throw, I know when it is on and when it is off.

Good luck.

Posted by: DoughBoy on September 6, 2015, 6:15 pm

My .02. I have run betting scenarios in practice. I love placing the six and eight from the get go. When I am hitting them it is very sweet to hit the ground running. But, I will say that like many others here, when I am off, I will hit anything but. So, I also try the big skinny but with a slight twist: If I hit the six or eight, I will immediately take the one that hits and put a small place bet in addition to my come bet. If I have a ten dollar pass with fifty dollar odds I will also place thirty when it hits and each time it hits I will take it up thirty. This is aggressive, I admit. When I am on it is wonderful and it is usually either the six or eight, not both.
I only get aggressive with the six or eight because I know my shot when it’s hitting. Otherwise, I work TBS and stick with it. As others have found, I can also have a twenty hand and never throw an eight. Go figure. I love to run these scenarios in practice and it usually tells me a lot about my shot. My humble opinion.

Posted by: AlamoTx on September 8, 2015, 12:22 pm

Thanks for the posts that did not suggest taking a class.

Interestingly, I’m experimenting with something I learned on another site. I’ll call it ‘Sister Number’ betting. The superstition behind this is based on how often the sister number seems to hit when you don’t have it. For example, you need to hit a 4 to get paid, but you hit three 10’s instead and then 7 out. I know, it’s not mathematically demonstrable. First off: I am sure this system is not scientifically or statistically advantageous, but here it is. I’m assuming a $10 unit game and 3,4,5 x odds . The progression would look like this:

Roll 1: Point is 5. Take full, $40 odds.
When the point is established, you can roll once against it to see if you point 7 or get something else. I prefer to immediately go 54 Across, before the second roll, right after establishing the point ($10 and $12 numbers)
Roll 2: You hit the Four. You’ve got $10 on it so, it pays you $18. Tell the dealers to make your 9 look like 35 and to take down all the other numbers. Now you have a $35 nine partially financed by a hit on the 4 and $86 at risk.
Roll 3 and 4 are numbers you don’t have money on.
Roll 5: You hit the sister. It pays you $49. Rack the $49 and take down the 9. You’re even for all practical purposes, playing the 5 with full odds and no risk.
Keep playing until you 7 out or hit the point of 5.

This progression doesn’t have the thrill of multiple numbers in play, other than while the $54 across and the fully armed point are in play. So far, and I don’t have enough stats to have something firm, you’ll 7 out with everything on the board between 15 and 20% of the time.

Here’s how I’m turning it into more money.

Let’s say that instead of 7 out, you hit the point of 5. You are now up over $100, if my math is right. You could call that enough and roll the next hand using a minimal betting method. Or, what I’ve been doing in practice is repeating the process. Once I’ve got enough in my rack that I will have a $100 profit and still be able to fund a point with full odds and the sister number at about 1/2 that. ( $25 for 4 and 10, $35 for 5 and 9 and $42 for 6 and 8 ), I skip the $54 across step and immediately place the sister once the point is establish. So, point with full odds, and sister at $25, $35 or $42, depending on the sister number.

Remember, you’ve locked away a minimum profit of $100 and you have two numbers in play. Let’s say you establish 8 as your point. Back it with $50 odds and place the sister 6 for $42. So, let’s say the sister hits. Bump it to $60 and rack the change. From now on, you spread out on every hit that pays $70. Rack the green; spread the red. You’re trying to now establish $50 and $60 units to work from with the goal being to profit and spread the layout at the same time.
So now, the 6 repeats. Rack $50 and place $20 on the 5; when the five hits, you’ll get paid $28. Toss a couple of bucks on the table and tell them to make it look like $50. Next hit on a $50 or $60 number, spread to the 9. Keep going until you have the board in play. From there, I’ve got more, but it takes a pretty good roll to get here, so I’ll save the press progression for later if anyone is interested, but no pressing until the entire board is covered with at least $20 units ready to press +.

In practice, this thing is working quite well. For a long time, I’ve been looking for a way to keep the BR exposure down while waiting to catch a roll. This is not perfect, but it does limit the losses. I did have one session where I hit point 7 three times in a row, but it wasn’t devastating. If you keep consistent, you get it back slowly. Another downside is that sometimes it takes a lot of rolls to nail that one point number that is sitting out there. But that is where the luck comes in. Some games, you just nail the numbers you need and other times you don’t. That is why we all like to get the whole box in play if we can. Once you’ve got decent $ filling the box, all you need is a few rolls to really make some hay.

Anyway, just thought some of you (not the come and place betting purists of course) would find this intriguing. I plan to try it in Vegas. As always, that is the true test.

Alamo

Posted by: Chuckman on September 10, 2015, 1:38 am

Alamo,

When betting on yourself, you have to know yourself. If your strength lies with the 6 and 8 then that is how you should play it. You are talking about a $150 spread, $10 pass, $20 odds, $60 each 6/8. You are wager 80% of your spread on the 6/8. If 6/8 are your strong numbers, starting with 80% of your spread on your strong numbers is great.

I prefer using an incremental increase over press/pull or pull/press betting. So if you are starting at $60 you could go to $66 on the first hit(racking $64), then $78 (racking $65), then $90 (racking $79.) When you get a hit at $90 you win $105. You can the press $30 on the 6 or 8 that hit and the spread $75 outside, so nothing would go in the rack but you now have all box numbers covered.

One person’s thoughts.

Posted by: brothelman on September 10, 2015, 4:36 am

So I have a question for you if you are taking the money off the number you hit and going to another are you picking the dice up and just flinging them down the table, because a controlled shot has the tendency to repeat numbers.

"Where is the logic in this ?

Why even practice a controlled throw, I hit one number and then place all the money on another why?

Help me understand the logic of this please.

Posted by: Finisher on September 11, 2015, 4:02 pm

Bman I will give it a try . You just threw a number so it will probably not show again soon .I can bet that many players have done that for a little while on your throws since you play much more then most of us . I know that has happened when I have thrown many times .It is there money and how many times have you heard that they had wished to press on your throw rather then take the bet down ?
I posted about a time were this guy would bet all across and take down bets as they hit . Unlucky for me that it turned out great for him on 3 of my rolls .Rolled every box number then 7 nd out I think I made one hit in the 3 rolls and lost all pass line bets .Not a happy camper for those 3 rolls .I was at the first casino on river which I stomped playing at .
Hope ALL is well with you .We just got back from seeing Grand daughter .
Last trip to Vegas a guy was betting like that .Then after awhile he made a lot of money on a hard way that I did not see that he changed his way of betting my throw till he said thank you to my surprise .
Good Rolling and hope you are still preaching the 20 commandments . 🙂 🙂 They DO need to be used more often.

Posted by: AlamoTx on September 13, 2015, 10:54 pm

My earlier post is about a method called "The Sisters", and, it is based on superstition, not math. The superstition is that when you get a point, you often see the sister number repeat. By establishing the point and then placing 52 or 54 across ($10 game), you are taking the first hit on any number other than the point and racking it, simply to reduce the remaining two number exposure. When you hit the point or the sister, you go to a new cycle. This is showing very good results in practice, even in the instances where you ‘point 7’ a couple of times. You build back if you are disciplined and don’t chase. I think it succeeds because it is a form of regression. The problem with methods like the Big Skinny is that while they kill on a long run, they can leave you seriously overexposed on the many short runs we all have. The math says, for example, that with an SRR of 8, you will have a 20 roll hand only 8.4% of the time. So, to stay alive for the big runs, and even maybe make some money, you have to reduce your exposure pretty quickly and then rebuild as you go into a roll.

I am also experimenting with something I call the 3-2-2-100-spread. Assume a $10 unit base. The concept is to establish 3 naturals ( Point and two come numbers with full odds). First hit, go back up on 3 numbers. 2d hit, rack the full hit and leave only 2 numbers working. Keep rolling until you have $100 in the rail. You always keep two numbers in play. Once you have the $100 profit racked, next hit, place the number you just hit and spread to the next best number for you. If it is a 6 or an 8 place $30 on it. If it is a 4,5,9 or 10 put $20 or $25 on it. You still keep a good portion of the $70 hit, so now you’re a little more up over the $100 profit in the rack and you have 3 numbers now. Rinse and repeat until all the box numbers are at $25 or $30. Press, collect, etc., from there. When you hit the $25 and $30 numbers press them until you have $50 and $60 units on all the box numbers. Press or collect from there. I have my way of doing the press, but that is for another post.

I’m going to try one or both of these when I’m in Vegas on the 16 and 17th. We’ll see. I’ll try to do a trip report, but my concept is to keep the exposure minimized while you leave yourself a relatively easy way to expand when the dice start going your way. BTW, in answer to the post of somebody else earlier, when I make the point, I’ve potentially established the way the dice are turning. When I pull everything down on the second hit and place the sister number, that means nothing except that I hit a box number. By putting the sister in play, I’m putting faith in the fact that the dice are turning toward those numbers. Ever heard somebody call out ‘They’re cheering in China" when you hit the opposite number of the one you’re trying for? Not science, but definitely controlled shooting. I have faith in my shot, so I know I’ve probably got an advantage over both the sister and the point. This is especially true, since I’ve financed a little of the sister (or the point, however you want to look at it) by a hit in the box when I placed the numbers across. Try it. You’ll find the exposure is minimal. If you hit the point or the sister, new cycle. You do get a little of the adrenaline you need when you are across on all the numbers at 10/12 each, but the odds favor you when you ‘lay’ that bet. You’ve got about an 80% chance of no seven and a box number instead. Depends on your own stats. Those are roughly mine. And… you can’t soil yourself when you ‘Point 7’ with a full point and $54 across. Relax, new game. You’ll make it back. Just don’t chase.

Peace my bros and sistuhs.

Alamo

Posted by: Finisher on September 14, 2015, 12:41 pm

Maybe you will run into some GTC folks that are coming in early for classes .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂