I usually lose at R because its too crowded and people play the middle with a buck here and a buck there.
Recently I was there and my position was 1L. I rolled 26, 40, 13, 26. I was up 4x my buy in after the second roll and I thought about leaving but the person I was picking up at the airport took a later flight so I rolled two more times. Since I was up, I pressed my bets from the start and ended up 9x my buy in. I made the most money on the last roll because I started with black chips on my odds and pressed. Around my 20th roll, I started to reduce my odds and had only 1000 in chips for odds when I sevened out.
Word
Replies:
Posted by: HardNine on August 19, 2015, 10:36 pm
Posted by: GreenMachine on August 20, 2015, 2:49 am
Posted by: Dr Crapology on August 20, 2015, 12:28 pm
You must remember, that like us, you know that the odds portion of the bet is never at risk in the long run. If you play long enough you will at the very least (even with random rollers) break even since the casino pays the true odds. The loss of the odds is simply a temporary hit against your bank roll. BUT since we are advantage players we will win money in the long run. Got this concept from Goldfinger.
Rose and Doc
Posted by: JesJac on August 20, 2015, 10:34 pm
Think about this: You never know when you will 7 out BUT, assuming you had all the numbers, had you left your odds or pressed your odds more rather than lessening them, with 6 more rolls you would have won more money — or been even with what you did at best if you hit no repeat in the 6 numbers. (Because you would have collected those amounts you "saved" in the payouts.)
You might have been down a touch if you hit no repeat and some craps.
Had you hit no craps and even one repeat in the 6 you would have certainly been ahead with even a small press. You would have left more on the table but more left on the table, if you are having a decent roll, means more in the rack unless you are going a bit nuts on the presses just before you 7.
Read what the Doc wrote again to understand the point he makes,
"You must remember, that like us, you know that the odds portion of the bet is never at risk in the long run.
If you play long enough you will at the very least (even with random rollers) break even since the casino pays the true odds.
The loss of the odds is simply a temporary hit against your bank roll.
BUT since we are advantage players we will win money in the long run. Got this concept from Goldfinger."
So, unless you are sure you are going to 7-out in 6 rolls or less it likely does not pay to lower your odds bet.
Anyone can bring any statistics they want but when your throw is good, they cannot predict or staticize when you will screw up so… go for it.
Had you rolled 27 numbers with no craps in the last 7, lowering the odds bets after 20 would have cost you money.
Posted by: GreenMachine on August 21, 2015, 2:45 pm
Its gone the other way where Ive pressed my bets and then seven ed out shortly after.