The basic answer is—yes you can. Or at the very least you can lose very little. Making money on short rolls or losing very little, will certainly put you in position to be ready when the big rolls does occur. But it can best (read only) be done if you obviously learn the throw and truly believe in it, as well as bet the way GTC teaches plus you bet within your bank roll.
Here is an example Doc recently had at Home. I know it is not in the casino but it does illustrate it can be done. Here we go:
Was using a $10 table to get ready for the 20 ant 100 times odds available in the Shreveport destination, using Doc and Rose’s variation of The Big Skinny. Our variation is to cover the 6 and 8 with place bets as we tend to hit more frequently that probability would indicate. Started out with a $10 pass line bet on the the 8 with $50 in odds. Also placed the 6 for $60. Put up a come bet of $10. Then proceed to have one of Doc’s classic point 7 out. OUCH. Lost 2 best.
Second time with the dice, the $10 pass line bet went to the 6. Again $50 in odds and placed the 8 for $60. Also had a $10 come bet. Boom, came right back with a 6, with a nice payday. Come bet went to the 6. On the next roll set a point of 5. Made a come bet of $10 once again. Rolled a 6 and added $50 in odds. Would keep a come bet going on each and every roll of the dice. Bingo, rolled a 6, another payday. Then three 8s in a row. Then the 7 would appear.
If my count is correct that is 11 rolls in total—2 rolls the the first time followed with a 9. No trash numbers and only one of the 8’s had and a six in the mix which was a 6/2. All other rolls were without a 1 or 6. This will not happen all the time, especially this profitable, but is can happen. Second had some multiple hits and money only on 3 numbers.
Do I do this every time I get the dice? Not even close, but it does happen from time to time, keeping my short rolls to the point of letting me have some small wins or more importantly losses low. You must protect your bank roll.
Also note that my SRR was only 5.5 but I hit some repeaters. BTY, used the hard way set on all the rolls.
So don’t get discouraged when you have a lot of short rolls. They happen. We are in this for the long run. Any losses on these short rolls are simply temporary hits hits your bank roll. If your trust your throw and bet correctly will win in the long run.
Doc
Replies:
Posted by: Finisher on July 25, 2015, 5:29 am
Well that ended that for now any way . 🙂 🙂
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂
Posted by: JawBones on July 25, 2015, 11:33 am
Anyway, you want your maximum initial outlay (money at risk) to be no more that 0.5 to 1.0% of your 401g total. So for example, my wife and i partner and play the Big Skinny with 3-4-5X odds on a $5 table. In a worst case scenario, our initial max risk is $85 which would happen if we had the 6, 8, and either the 5 or 9 covered with 25 odds on the 6 and 8 and 20 on the 5 or 9. If we were willing to risk 1% of our 401g, then we would need a 401g of $8500. If we wanted our risk to be no more than 0.5% then we need $17,000 to back us up.
For my wife and I, we about half way in between. Our 401g had climbed to just a bit over $16k and with our recent sacrifice to the Craps Gods, we are about $14,500.
Hope that helps.
jb
Posted by: Dr Crapology on July 25, 2015, 1:47 pm
Don’t misunderstand me, we only bring a portion of the bank roll on a r trip to a casino casino and leave the balance at home in the safe. We will not go to an ATM, write a check at the cashier cage, or go by a local branch of our bank (we use a nation wide bank like Chase). There are no exceptions. BTY only once in our life have we lost the entire bank roll we took on our trip. TALK ABOUT A BUMMER. But this was several years prior to coming into the GTC family as we were the typical ploppy who had no idea what he was doing. And that’s when we begin reading some books concerning BJ card counting and dice control. We have literally swallowed these concepts hook, line and sinker–which was the best thing we ever did.
We are not gamblers but advantage players. I see so many people at the table who will hit something like a hard 4 hopping (which they talk about for years to come) only to lose it all back over time. They have selective memory. Rose and Doc are not members of this group.
Just my $.02 worth. Hope this helps.
Doc
Posted by: Finisher on July 25, 2015, 6:05 pm
I need to do more on the money management side in the future .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂
Posted by: Dominator on July 25, 2015, 7:11 pm
I will get to my opinion on BR maybe tomorrow
Dom
Posted by: JawBones on July 25, 2015, 9:57 pm
"Finisher" wrote: JB So if you are willing to risk 1% on a given roll then do you bring 5% more or less on or for your trip ?
I need to do more on the money management side in the future .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂
Finisher there is no real thought behind how much we bring. We bring $1000 and divide it between us. Just part or our routine. Whenever we step up to a table our buy-in is always $500 each. Even if I am playing by myself, I usually buy-in for $500. If we are staying over night or planning on hitting both of the casinos we typically play in, we will bring up to $2000 with us just so we can buy in for $500 each new session.
Our 1% or less risk is our opening spread; 1 pass with up to $25 odds and 2 come bets with up to $25 odds on a $5 table. Our belief (assumption) is that since we have a slight edge on the house with pass and come bets, we start with enough to have a few turns with the dice to warm up. We figure that if we can’t get a good roll after 6 or 7 times, it just isn’t going to happen. We have never had a session where we got 3 bets up and then hit the 7 an every roll. It is pretty rare not to get at least one or two paydays during one or more of our rolls.
We (I) have had good success with TBS since we have been using it but the last 4 trips have been real bummers.
Now, when we are going to Vegas which we do a couple of times per year, I will bring about $6K and I have a line of credit at one the downtown casinos which I tap at the beginning. I like to make sure I have about $6-8K available for a 4-6 day trip. $1000 of that is for incidentals, meals that are not comped, rental cars, etc. That does not come out of my 401g. I keep that separate and track only my gambling results in my 401g. The spending money comes from an account just for that.
Hope this answers your question.
jb
Posted by: Chuckman on July 26, 2015, 12:00 am
First let me clarify what I consider a short hand. The math for a random roller produces an average number of rolls per turn with the dice as 8.5255. http://catlin.casinocitytimes.com/article/how-long-is-a-craps-roll-1240 So for the sake of this discussion I will consider a short hand to be 8 or fewer rolls of the dice.
Now the last roll of that count is the 7 which ends the roll. Then we need a roll to establish a point. That brings us to 6 rolls to make money on during a "short" hand.
If you break your spread into 3 bets (pass and 2 comes or pass and 6/8) you need 3 hits to make money on a short hand. So you need to be making a payday over half the time. I contend that requires skill on the level of Dom and Mr Finesse to do consistently.
And that was an 8 roll hand. 3 pay days become even harder on hand of 7, 6, 5, 4, 3 or 2.
I think Doc’s point of losing little is the more realistic goal for short hands.
Posted by: Finisher on July 26, 2015, 12:20 am
You are so right that it is some times about the little losses rather the big wins .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂
Posted by: Goddess on July 26, 2015, 8:46 pm
In 2002 I started out with about $400 as my bank roll. Thanks to GTC, I now have several thousand dollars, and can afford the bumps in the road during my journey. (Since I was never a gambler, I am still rather conservative in my betting. I have the opposite problem of heavy bettors.)
Everyone should continue building their bankrolls, so you are not afraid to bet whenyou do have good rolls. If you are afraid of the money, you shouldn’t be betting. You should wait until your bankroll can support your game. And please, be sure to make only the good bets.
Goddess
Posted by: Butcher on July 27, 2015, 4:37 am