-1.41% is your expected return on a pass line or come bet for a random roller. In other words a random roller can expect to lose -1.41% of whatever amount he wagers on the pass line.

In order to calculate the expected return one needs to calculate the probability of all possible outcomes for the event times the amount one wins or loses with each possible outcome.

You need to calculate each possible way one can win the pass line wager times the amount wagered less each possible way one can lose the pass line wager times the amount wagered.

That means the calculation involves calculating the probability of throwing a 7, 11, 4 and then repeating the 4 before throwing a 7, 5 and then repeating the 5 before throwing a 7, 6 and then repeating the 6 before throwing a 7, 8 and then repeating the 8 before throwing a 7, 9 and then repeating the 9 before throwing a 9 and finally a 10 and repeating the 10 before throwing a 10. That calculation turns out to be 244/495

One also has to calculate the ways one can lose the pass line wager. That calculation involves calculating the probability of throwing a 2, 3, 12, 4 and then throwing a 7 before repeating the 4, 5 and then throwing a 7 before repeating the 5, 6 and then throwing a 7 before repeating the 6, 8 and then throwing a 7 before repeating the 8, 9 and then throwing a 7 before repeating the 9 and finally a 10 and then throwing a 7 before repeating the 10. That calculation turns out to be 251/495

To determine the house edge we multiply the probability of winning times +1 unit and the probability of losing times -1 unit. Adding the results gives us our expectation or how many units we can expect to win or lose when we make a 1 unit wager on the bet.

(244/495)×(+1) + (251/495)×(-1) = -7/495 ≈ -1.414%.

The house edge on the pass line represents how much one can expect to win or lose when one places a wager on the pass line. You can not break the house edge up into individual components. You have to take into consideration all possible ways of winning or losing on the come out roll as well as all possible ways of winning or losing when one establishes each of the different possible point numbers.

As for your other question, the chances of making 2 or more points in a roll for a random roller is 16.46%. A random roller can expect to make 2 or more points approximately 1 time out of every 6 times that he takes the dice.

Thanks John for simplifying this game we all love to play. 😀

I am so glad we have our Math wizard to explain and show us how the math really arrives at the final answer.

Now remember one more thing, this all begins with the GRIP and if you want to achieve an Edge work on your grip. Please !!!!

John, as always you make these things seem so simple. Thank you.

As a minor side light, one does have to remember that the percentage of 1.414 is computed over a very long run—probably over many thousands of rolls.

With this thread you need to remember these 5 things:

1. Bet the math
2. practice your grip
3. practice your grip
4. practice your grip
5. practice your grip

Doc

I really get what Finisher is saying. It’s the mentality of looking at that one bet. It’s a very "logical" way of thinking about it, and I still struggle with that in my head, but am certainly getting better and DO BET THE MATH. I used to say "OH S***" when I set a 4 as a point/come. Now I relish it because I CAN DOUBLE MY ODDS! It’s this very thinking that has the dark side players laying the 4/10, which makes me relish throwing those even more! Not that I want folks to lose, but hey, it’s devilishly fun watching a $300 Don’t Pass or Lay bet go back to the bank! 😈

I bet my modification of The Big Skinny and don’t fret which points are set. If I set a 4, 10, 9 (a hard nine of course), I’m not worried that they’re "harder" to hit than 6/8. HAVE FAITH IN YOUR SKILLS, even if still developing as it’s taught and drilled in here constantly to not bet beyond your skill’s development. If your SRR is 7, bet to it, if it’s 8, bet to that. Recently, almost every S.O. has been when I lose faith in my throw, get nervous, and I pull up short or twist or whatever stupid thing I do with my hand. Playing the Come should have you on the numbers you’re repeating, so have faith in that.

This has been more for me to tell myself, but hopefully helps others.

Doc, you missed number 6: Practice your grip! 😀

Don

"HardNine" wrote:

I bet my modification of The Big Skinny and don’t fret which points are set. … HAVE FAITH IN YOUR SKILLS … Playing the Come should have you on the numbers you’re repeating, so have faith in that.

Don

You make a great point (pun intended) HardNine. There is no advantage to making your point if you are throwing a lot of repeating numbers. In fact it is preferable to not make ones point in order to let the roll extend without interruption.

I am actually happy when I get a point of 4 or 10. If it takes me longer to make my point I will be able to roll longer without having my roll interrupted with all the confusion that takes place when I make my point. It gives me a chance to get into a zone and make a lot of money with repeated "off and on" rolls with every repeating number I throw.

When I make a point my roll comes to a halt. I have to wait for all the pay outs to take place. Then I have to deal with all the people making new bets and some of them come in late when I am on a new come out roll.

There is far less disruption when I am in the point cycle shooting to make my point as opposed to trying to establish my point. I roll the dice, bets are paid off in a consistent manner, the dice come back to me in a steady time frame that I can get used to and I am ready to grip, set, focus and roll for my next number.

I say get excited when you establish a point of 4 or 10. You now have an opportunity to make a lot of money without interference.

"Skinny" wrote: [quote="HardNine"]

I bet my modification of The Big Skinny and don’t fret which points are set. … HAVE FAITH IN YOUR SKILLS … Playing the Come should have you on the numbers you’re repeating, so have faith in that.

Don

You make a great point (pun intended) HardNine. There is no advantage to making your point if you are throwing a lot of repeating numbers. In fact it is preferable to not make ones point in order to let the roll extend without interruption.

I am actually happy when I get a point of 4 or 10. If it takes me longer to make my point I will be able to roll longer without having my roll interrupted with all the confusion that takes place when I make my point. It gives me a chance to get into a zone and make a lot of money with repeated "off and on" rolls with every repeating number I throw.

When I make a point my roll comes to a halt. I have to wait for all the pay outs to take place. Then I have to deal with all the people making new bets and some of them come in late when I am on a new come out roll.

There is far less disruption when I am in the point cycle shooting to make my point as opposed to trying to establish my point. I roll the dice, bets are paid off in a consistent manner, the dice come back to me in a steady time frame that I can get used to and I am ready to grip, set, focus and roll for my next number.

I say get excited when you establish a point of 4 or 10. You now have an opportunity to make a lot of money without interference.

Very much agreed, Skinny. Although your throws are tight in repeats on the one hand, I’d rather just keep getting come bet hit$$$ vs. making point$. A conundrum!

"Mr Finesse" wrote: …
… Now remember one more thing, this all begins with the GRIP and if you want to achieve an Edge work on your grip. Please !!!!

Mr Finesse,

Before you practice your grip, must you not to be very certain that the grip you will be
repeating in your grip-alone practice is exactly correct?
I would think that you deem your grip to be your correct one only after it is working in
your successful practice throws.

But if you are in a learning curve wherein your grip is the cause of 90% of your faulty throws
don’t you have to first develop your correct grip as part of your good throws as you work
on all aspects of your throws to improve to an ‘advantage” level?
If you have not yet perfected your throw because of a faulty grip,
you have not yet found this correct grip which you would like to repeat in your grip practice.
So you can practice your grip, as a stand-alone’ exercise, only after achieving an ‘advantage’
level of throw.

I therefore cannot practice my grip to have an edge,
but only after reaching a skill level where I already have an edge
should I then practice my grip so as not to lose my grip and my edge.

Am I saying this right? Hope I’m not making this confusing.
Your quote is wise and I’m just trying to internalize it in a way that
I can make it useful to me. What do you think?

7×7

7×7 LOOKS like this should have went on Grip post .
They say when you are NEW to just practice setting dice and grip but not to throw until you take class .
Well I had already been throwing the dice for some 30 years so that would not help . But it would have helped to know that they only do the 3 finger grip in the first class . It took 1 1/2 days to bring that grip back to me .Then it was not until one of the instructors noticed that one of my nails was longer then all the others .So after I cut it things did start to get better . But that was on last day of class .
I think they say it all starts with the grip and I can see that .
But it would be better if they told all new students what grip will be taught in class when signing up .
The classes are getting better and better .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Please see my response in the Topic about Grip

I think most if not all things start with grip like you say .
I remember one day there was a base ball signing going on . So I took my son to it and listened to this player telling my son how to grip the ball when he received it to throw back and a lot of other things . I know then that I should never be a coach for base ball . I had no idea there was so much into it .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

"Skinny" wrote: [quote="HardNine"]

I bet my modification of The Big Skinny and don’t fret which points are set. … HAVE FAITH IN YOUR SKILLS … Playing the Come should have you on the numbers you’re repeating, so have faith in that.

Don

You make a great point (pun intended) HardNine. There is no advantage to making your point if you are throwing a lot of repeating numbers. In fact it is preferable to not make ones point in order to let the roll extend without interruption.

I am actually happy when I get a point of 4 or 10. If it takes me longer to make my point I will be able to roll longer without having my roll interrupted with all the confusion that takes place when I make my point. It gives me a chance to get into a zone and make a lot of money with repeated "off and on" rolls with every repeating number I throw.

When I make a point my roll comes to a halt. I have to wait for all the pay outs to take place. Then I have to deal with all the people making new bets and some of them come in late when I am on a new come out roll.

There is far less disruption when I am in the point cycle shooting to make my point as opposed to trying to establish my point. I roll the dice, bets are paid off in a consistent manner, the dice come back to me in a steady time frame that I can get used to and I am ready to grip, set, focus and roll for my next number.

I say get excited when you establish a point of 4 or 10. You now have an opportunity to make a lot of money without interference.

One of the biggest hands that I ever witnessed was a hand like this.

The shooter came out and established the 4 as his point. He threw for 45 minutes and finally made the four, came out again on the 4 and threw for over 15 minutes and finally sevened out. an hour long hand making only 1 point.

One player made $180,000 and the guy playing next to me was playing the don’t and he broke even having had only two bets both against the 4!

It won’t win you the Fire bet but…….

"DoughBoy" wrote: It won’t win you the Fire bet but…….

Will it get you the Big Enchilada ?
Have you tried betting for it while you are playing for the FIRE ?
Just wondered how well that has worked out for you or any others .
If you can throw hard ways you could make a lot if you did it with all the hard ways along with the fire .That would add up to a Big hit .
Like B-Man says lots of CHEESE .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂