Craps

Calculating your edge

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In a recent scan through this forum I noticed the phrase "calculate your edge and bet into it". This may come across as a dumb question coming from a student of five years who has probably heard this explained several times in class but here it goes. How do I calculate my edge? Does this phrase mean be aware of what the house edge is on various bets? As in the house has the edge on all wagers. Or do I use my SRR to calculate an edge that can be used to evaluate a wager based on how that calculated edge compares to the house edge which is based on a totally random game? I’m sure Dom and or the instructors will read this and want to reach trough the phone line and slap me upside the head but I plead old age here. did I ever tell you about my head injury 🙄


Replies:

Posted by: TommyC on May 13, 2015, 1:55 pm

Good question, I’m old and mathematically challenged, so maybe they can answer your question on about a 3rd grade level so I can understand also. 😆

Posted by: Dr Crapology on May 13, 2015, 2:34 pm

Like Tommy C, the exact math may be a little challenging but here are a few ideas that may help.

If you will go to the advanced search area–top right corner of this page–and type in "how to calculate your edge" or similar words you will get many past posts that will give you information concerning computing your edge and probably a few with in depth math information. You simply need to look.

Just remember that as we teach in class, an SRR of something in the neighborhood of 6.23 gives you a small advantage over the casino in the long run—anything can happen in the short run. So as your SRR increases, your edge increases over the casino increases as well. You will have some variance but in the long run if you bet properly, have a decent on axis throw and an adequate bank roll, you will win over time.

For us the long run is our life time. We know we will have ups and downs–probably more downs than we like–but the good rolls will more than off set the losses. As advantage play dice controllers, we are .300 hitters so expect a short roll from time to time–it happens and always will.

Just remember that you probably need at least 1000 rolls to even come close to an accurate SRR—5000 rolls will be even better. Figure your SRR for 5000 recorded rolls and see what your over all SRR is. Then take the last 2500 rolls and see if you see some improvement.

These are some simple ideas that might help you to see how you are doing.

Always remember that you can come to a class weekend for a refresher, video analysis or tune up to have your throw critiqued by an instructor. All pro athletes are getting instruction from their respective coaches on a continuing basis. We are no different.

Hope this will help and that others will chime in with some additional ideas.

Rose and Doc

Posted by: OneMoonCircles on May 14, 2015, 7:00 am

1000 rolls is nice but only a start. You need at least 3900 to have any statistical significance. More is always better.

OMC

Posted by: Dominator on May 14, 2015, 1:52 pm

Exactly OMC …… 3900 is the right number for any kind of statistical data ….. I use 5000 rolls.

Now as you put in your rolls and get to , well lets say 4000 for a good number, keeping on dropping the first 100 off and so on.

so lets make this easy ……

you have recorded 100 rolls and on your sheet you have circled 10 7’s. you divide the number of rolls by the amount of 7’s …… 100/10 = 10 SRR

And as Doc said you need a 6.23 SRR to have an edge betting with come bets or placing the 6/8.

Dominator

Posted by: Mr Finesse on May 14, 2015, 7:34 pm

Pretty simple to figure out. Now start practicing and recording those rolls. 😀

Posted by: TommyC on May 14, 2015, 8:25 pm

I started rolling on my new table last night. I rolled 100 rolls I had 10 sevens, for a 10 SRR. I quit, because I probably won’t get any better than that. LOL

Posted by: Butcher on May 15, 2015, 1:59 am

I understand calculating my SRR. I use Smart Craps but because of the long layoff from the stroke I don’t feel my results are still valid. So I have started over. Before the stroke I had 4500 or so rolls recorded using my practice rig. With an SRR of 7.2 . I should have my new table soon. I will start over once again because the new table is a new device to throw on. Because my SRR on the practice rig was good at 7.2 does not necessarily mean I have that SRR in the casino. As has been pointed out to me before every table is a little different and the results on one table may not carry over to another table. Tracking my SRR does give me an insight to my consistency and any significant decrease can alert me to bad habits that may be creeping in. Regardless of my SRR I will continue to be a come bettor relying on TBS(The Big Skinny) to keep my betting within the GTC framework. I will stick with the hardways set until my SRR gets up near 7.5 again. When my SRR gets up over 7 I feel I am keeping the dice on axis and I am hitting my target consistently. Then I may start experimenting with the 2v or 3v in practice and track my results. Thanks for the posts folks.

Posted by: Finisher on May 15, 2015, 4:05 pm

Butcher You said that when your SRR gets above 7 you feel better about on axes throw . You need to look at pro test 1 for that . You could have an SRR of greater then that and still be off axes . Just a thought .
I have found that my SRR can change a lot but when I look at smart craps the pro 1 does not change vary much . Wish that it was better .
After entering into smart craps I find that the SRR changes a lot compared to pro 1 and 2 . I do better at pro 3 but little change on first 2 .
I do feel a lot better when I see that about 1/3 of 7s are come out 7s some times .But as far as SRR goes I do not worry what it is unless I am just using the hard way set ALL the time .
I have passed smart craps a few times but not with pro 1 or 2 .I hope that may happen soon . I still throw a lot of CRAP . 🙂 🙂
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Posted by: Butcher on May 16, 2015, 5:06 pm

Yes Finisher I also track my Pro test results which is a much better indication of keeping the dice on axis than just the SRR alone. Being able to track both with Smart craps is what makes that software package such a powerful tool IMHO.

My original question was looking for a hopefully simple equation to figure out what my SRR needs to be to lets say overcome the house edge on placing the five or nine. After looking through my math books from school I realize that the math is a little complicated/involved and isn’t really a necessary calculation to make at this point on my journey. I realize these higher house edge bets are not the best wagers to make regardless of where my skill level is. Thanks for the posts and opinions. 😉

Posted by: Finisher on May 17, 2015, 5:18 am

Butcher What size table are you getting. I started to make a receiving table then looked at it and said why not just make it a little longer . So I needed up making a 12 ft. table .It took some time since I did not have the funds to get all that I needed right away .I am not a Carpenter and it showed at the end but it was fun and a lot of work . I do enjoy it and so do others .
Hope you enjoy yours too.
Have you passed the smart craps tests ?
I found it interesting that even when I just put in just my 5 longest rolls I did not pass not one of them .
I wish that I had more knowledge about smart craps .I do put in my rolls and look to see how close I get to passing but that is about it .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Posted by: SevenTimesSeven on June 1, 2015, 6:37 pm

"Finisher" wrote:
Have you passed the smart craps tests ?
I found it interesting that even when I just put in just my 5 longest rolls I did not pass not one of them .
I wish that I had more knowledge about smart craps .I do put in my rolls and look to see how close I get to passing but that is about it .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Finisher,
How do you record your throws for SmartCraps?
Left and right dice separately onto paper spreadsheet or into a spreadsheet like XL?
Then manually or electronically into SmartCraps?

7×7

Posted by: Butcher on June 1, 2015, 9:07 pm

@ Finisher. I have a 12ft. table coming from GTC. Should be here soon.
@7×7. Perhaps your question was for Finisher but I have smart craps on a notebook computer that sits right next to my throwing station. When the new table gets here I have a small table I built to put it on. I put the numbers in as I throw with left die first. I use two different color dice when I am tracking what the dice are doing ie right vs left. When I practice I am more concerned with, are they both bouncing to the wall and rolling down the wall or bouncing sideways rather than the result at the end.

Posted by: Finisher on June 6, 2015, 7:31 am

7X7 i HAVE IN PAST USED RED DIE FOR RIGHT AND GREEN DIE FOR LEFT . I input into smart craps by hand .I use a sheet that can record 180 throws .Also at bottom I keep track of the numbers so can just look at a glance to see how they are coming out .Also record hard ways on same sheet along with box numbers and field numbers and PWs . Also total 7s and come out 7s .The sheet does get filled up but is easy to read .
You cold use this on a spread sheet but I do not know how to do that so I do it by hand .
I use old paper that is still good on one side .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂