Eben Novy-Williams, Bloomberg
The University of Kentucky’s undefeated regular season has Nick Bogdanovich sweating. If the Wildcats don’t lose this year, his employer will.
The director of trading at sports book operator William Hill U.S., Bogdanovich in July listed 50-1 odds that the Wildcats would win a national title with a perfect 40-0 record.
He took about 10 bets at that price before narrowing the odds, which fell all the way to even money as Kentucky rolled through its regular-season schedule. With the 31-0 Wildcats scheduled to take the floor again this week in their conference tournament — and the National Collegiate Athletic Association tournament after that — William Hill is facing a high six- figure loss on that offer if Kentucky runs the table.
“We’ve got quite a bit of danger on that go-undefeated prop,” Bogdanovich said in a telephone interview. “Not seven figures, it won’t reach that high thank goodness.”
While Bogdanovich was alone in listing the 50-1 prop in July, he’s not the only book manager rooting against Kentucky. Sportsbook.ag, based in Antigua, in November opened its Kentucky undefeated prop at 10-1 and stands to lose money if it hits; South Point Casino avoided the prop altogether but will lose money in its futures book if the Wildcats win the national title.
Futures bets are typically very profitable for casinos — the length of a full season gives oddsmakers time to adjust lines as bets come in. The ultimate goal, and usual result, is a balance among all the teams where books turn a profit no matter the outcome.
Bettors’ Favorite
South Point, however, took so much action on Kentucky that it’s in jeopardy of losing money on a Wildcats title. Jimmy Vaccaro, who runs the casino’s sports book, said it’s rare that the majority of Las Vegas books stand to lose on a particular outcome.
“I can think of maybe four or five times in the past 20- odd years,” he said.
Nevada sports books in 2014 made $54.2 million on basketball betting, both college and professional, according to the state’s gaming control board. That was 4.9 percent of the total amount wagered.
The odds on Kentucky to win its second title under coach John Calipari, which opened at 10-1 before the season, are now pick-em at South Point. A bettor can get the same odds for a package including all of the tournament’s other 67 teams.
Kentucky is 4-5 at Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook. Duke and Wisconsin are next at 7-1, followed by Arizona and Virginia at 12-1.
The genesis for the William Hill undefeated prop goes back to two summers ago, when a customer asked Bogdanovich to list odds on that year’s Kentucky team going undefeated. The book put it out at 400-1, it drew early interest, and the Wildcats lost their third game of the season. Success for the book.
Narrower Odds
Bogdanovich narrowed the odds this year for a Kentucky team that was a preseason No. 1. After early action it was lowered to 40-1, then 20-1, then 10-1, all the way down to even money.
While there was always an option to bet against the perfect season, Bogdanovich said 94 percent of the slips favored the Wildcats.
“Do I wish we had less exposure? Yes, but sometimes that happens,” he said. “There’s been five games that they easily could have lost.”
The most recent was last week at Georgia, when the Wildcats trailed by six points with 5:36 left before going on a 14-0 run. Kentucky needed a last-second defensive stand to force overtime against Mississippi on Jan. 6, and four days later needed two extra periods to beat Texas A&M.
The top seed in the Southeastern Conference tournament in Nashville, Tennessee, Kentucky drew a bye into the March 13 quarterfinals, where it will face either Florida or Alabama. The SEC title game tips off at noon Eastern on March 15, seven hours before the NCAA bracket is announced.
Consecutive Favorites
Oddsmakers say Kentucky, probably a No. 1 seed no matter what, will be favored in every one of its remaining games.
“Against Duke, Wisconsin or Arizona they’d be a five- or six-point favorite,” Vaccaro said. “And those are the elite teams. The best.”
The 1975-76 Indiana Hoosiers were the last program to complete a perfect season with a national championship. Since then three teams have entered the NCAA tournament with perfect records, only to fall short of a title. The most recent, Wichita State last year, lost in the Round of 32.
Peter Childs, Sportsbook.ag’s head supervisor of risk management, said his ideal situation would be for Kentucky to lose in the SEC tournament, then go on to win the national title. William Hill is in a similar situation, because there’s been enough title wagering on schools with longer odds, such as Duke, Virginia, Arizona and Wisconsin.
Before Childs or Bogdanovich think about that, though, they need that first Kentucky loss.
“We stand to lose significant money if they do go undefeated,” Childs said. “We’ll make some of that up with the odds-to-win market, but it won’t come close.”
Replies:
No replies were posted for this topic.
