Hey Sevenout,

I am sure you will get much better answers than this and maybe even from some math heads! Here are my thoughts though on reading your post. Hopefully, they may be useful to you in provoking more thinking and your final decision.

(1) how often can you remember winning 10 or more games in a row? Are they some what frequent or hard to remember the last time you did that?

(2) how possible is it to take the 5 game streak money and make a bet where you might be able to make that $50 bet money into a $500 bet or at least some amount that you would be happier with?

(3) If you take money from a 5 game streak a couple of times does that make the lower amount more palatable to you?

Whatever you decide, go with it and be happy with it no matter what the outcome! 🙂

I can tell you the math but can not advise you on the decision. That comes down to how you feel about it emotionally.

At this point, you currently have $50 with the potential of gaining an additional $450 for a total of $500. If you had a 63% chance of winning each individual wager, you would have a 10% chance of winning 5 wagers in a row. That is what you would need to make it a worthwhile attempt.

Do you think you have a 63% or better chance of winning each of the individual wagers you will make? Note I am not saying a 63% chance of winning 5 in a row. You need to have 63% or better on each of the 5 individual wagers.

Skinny If I won 5 in a row MY emotions would be so high that this little bird would think that he was an Eagle .The trip down on that 6th loss would be not good . So I think the 50.00 would be a great win for little OLD me .
I did make my first parlay bet last trip but it was for my SON . I did not really know what I was doing so had to go back to make bet after phone call . Got it right and my Son won both bets .One was a straight up win bet the other was a win and under , parlay . The parlay did pay better .They were 10.00 bets so not much action .Did get .20 on card which had never seen before as far as points go .
Also saw sign that says if you bet 3,000.00 in day will get 4x points .Boy I am sure far from that way of betting .
If you really have a 63% chance of picking the winner it is better then what we have playing craps . That may be another way of looking at it .But then I would not know what my % would be at picking one winner let alone 5 .
I am sure you will make the right decision.
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Finisher, I tend to agree.

Here is another way of looking at what I said. If you have a 63% chance of winning a single bet each and every time, then you have a 10% chance of winning 5 in a row. That then makes it a worthwhile adventure because they are paying you 9 to 1 if you do so.

But realize this. Even if you are fortunate enough to have a 63% chance of winning your bets, you only have a 1 in 10 chance of getting the $500. You can expect to lose your $50, nine times out of ten.

Having said that let us look at this from a different point of view. Don’t sports books pay more than 9 to 1 on a 5 time parlay? Wouldn’t you be better off taking $50 and playing the same bets on a 5 time parlay with a sports book? In fact you could even do it ten different times to see if you can hit it one time out of 10? Would not that make you more money?

Of course you might say you do not want to risk $50 of your own money on such a long shot once, let alone trying it up to ten times. But now that you have hit five in a row and won $50, is not that $50 your money? If go for ten in a row, wouldn’t you be risking your own $50 even though at the moment it is in the casinos coffers? Except it is yours to cash in if you so choose.

Then there is also the fact that you are only winning free play which is only worth about 1/2 the value. In effect you are risking around $25 for a chance to win about $250.

I think the right play is to take the $50 free play and see what you can turn it into. Pocket anything you make over $25. If the $25 is not all that much to you then plan on taking $25 of your winnings from the free play and put it on a 5 time parlay with a sports book.

I don’t know what a 5 play par lay pays but my son was happy with his 2 play par lay that he won .
Risk was 20.00 pay was 65.90 . That was on foot ball .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

In most sports books a 5 team parlay pays 20 to 1.