Because I am interested in helping other shooters and because sometimes helping other shooters means having to write a trip report about what can sometimes be the harsh reality of our hobby, I feel compelled to post this tale of defeat. Some of you who have read my posts in the past know that I am a big believer in luck. Skill alone will not consistently beat the house. They have more time and money than we do. Skill helps a lot, but when lady luck shuns you for an entire 3 day trip, you are in for a rough ride.
On this trip, I teamed up with 3 other very good, experienced shooters. They can name themselves if they choose, and they can agree or differ with my post as needed. As we arrived and gathered for the first team meeting, hopes were soaring. We were all texting back and forth about creaming the casinos, etc. While waiting on the team to assemble, I lost some money at video poker playing by the book. At one point, I was up slightly but decided to play a little more and subsequently lost my entire stake for that session. Then, still waiting for the guys, I made 3 sports bets. We finally all got together and hit our first casino. Nobody got past about 10 rolls, and I lost a decent chunk. All three of my sports bets covered, however, so the first night was only a dent rather than a critical mass hit.
The next morning, we hit several different casinos and had our butts handed to us at each one. After lunch, we hurled ourselves at the casinos again, and this is where luck began to show me that she was not playing on my side. I have a rule where I stop shooting if nothing happens after 3 attempts. At one place, I lost most of my table stake on my own throw and on the throws of a couple of the guys. We stunk, and I was playing outside my discipline and staying at the table through as many as six or seven rolls. Finally, I went to the cage and turned my remaining table stake into cash and came back to watch the last of our team members finish his roll. As three of us watched but did not play, our team mate proceeded to rack up a 40+ roll. The CF whale next to him was at table max on every number. We’re talking $6000 six and eight! Luck is being in the game at the right time, and I was not. In fact, the guy doing the shooting had been hit so hard earlier that he did not get big into his own roll. At the end, the whale threw $500 chips at the dealers and gave absolutely ‘nada’ to our team mate. How’s that for luck? We were all ready to follow the guy outside and roll him old style Vegas…but, of course we didn’t. My trip stake had taken a serious hit by this time, and I decided to go small from there on out. Of course, after I went small, I got a 28 roll mini-heater but did not bet big enough into it to make any difference.
That evening, the losing for all of us continued, and I went 0-2 on sports to make things worse.
My come betting strategy had been a disaster, so listening to one of the guys, I started doing some regression betting. It worked for a while until 3 point 7s in a row by me and one of the team. There is a reason I’m not a fan of regression betting and it is this: You can lose very big and only win small. In theory, I like the idea of reducing the amount on the layout so you are playing for free. The problem comes when you don’t get the chance to reduce, and the whole wad gets claimed by the gambling Goddess. Regressing and re-pressing the bets never seems to make enough money to counter the one or two big point 7s you inevitably get. And, don’t kid yourself, ALL Dis get point 7s and short rolls.
By the last night, I was in my room reading and catching up on email and later having sushi at the Golden Nugget visiting with a friend I know that works the bar there. Trip over. Trip stake badly damaged.
So…what might be the lessons for me this trip?
First: Realize that you MUST have luck to win when you gamble. Some people on these sites tend to make it sound like influencing the dice guarantees winning all the time. You have to have luck. Be grateful when you get it and accept it when you don’t. Part of the game.
Second: Play your own game and BE DISCIPLINED. I was staying at bad tables far too long and changing betting strategies and doing things I have never made money at. One of the negatives about team play, at least in my case, is the tendency to feel like you owe it to your buddies to at least be in on their rolls to some degree. When nobody is rolling well, that can expose your BR far more than is prudent. When the dice aren’t behaving, you MIGHT catch that next big roll, but chances are you won’t. Next time around, I’m going to be inclined to either forego team play altogether or suggest a betting pool where the blocker does the betting and everybody else shoots. I can see where that approach might have issues too, but no need to make a long post longer.
Third: Play your strongest game with a full BR and play the ‘other’ games with small money to kill time. I am a very good sports bettor and a disciplined VP player, but I was not in Vegas to bet on sports or VP, so I should not have diffused my financial energy sweating sporting events while I played craps. Same with video poker.
Fourth: This may be the most important one. Don’t bet heavy if you are mentally unprepared to play. Before this trip, I had been having some financial issues with work and did not really feel like I needed to be in Vegas. Since I could not blow the trip off, I should have realized that my mind was not in a good place and should have reduced the ‘at risk’ money substantially. Hard to sweat $12 6 and 8s or $22 inside betting.
As some of you may know, I’ve been going pretty heavy lately (for me). 3 $10 flat bets with $50 odds and/or placing $60 – $90 6 and 8 can give you a great return when the rolls go on, but it can also sting the hell out of you win the luck goes bad. So, maybe a final lesson, oft repeated by the gurus, is to have a BR that fluctuates with your betting level. I have my own rule for how to reduce my bets on the layout if and when the BR drops to certain pre-set limits. I have gotten to the level I am at now by growing the BR upward to the point where it was time to go up in the risk. As bad as this trip was, it thankfully did not take me down a level. I’ll still be starting a roll at two to three $10 units (+ – $60 per number at risk) next trip…and, next trip I’ll get the wheels back on the track.
I hope this post helps someone out there, especially any of you who get the impression that experienced, vetted shooters always win while you sit at home practicing endlessly and still somehow don’t have success in the casinos. Success comes, but it takes time. And, take it from me, you never stop getting experience. As a final thought, one of my business mentors once put it this way: “Experience is what you get when you were expecting something else!” Truthfully, I had a 6 trip winning streak until this last one, and I think maybe the gambling Goddess just plain decided it was time for me to get a little humility!

Keep On Rollin.

Alamo

Replies: