I’ve seen some of that too — depends on the location

There is a small casino nearby where most of the players are DP — and they keep it up no matter what the point is.

In AC there is a tall & thin guy (he looks like a chemistry professor — we call him "Big Bird") that walk around all of the tables looking for 4’s and 10’s to lay against. He’ll sometimes climb over the shooter to make his bet.

These are people who have no understanding of the game. They think they are making a clever move because it is easier to make a 6 or 8 than any other point. But in reality they are making a terrible wager.

During the come out roll the don’t player has 3 ways to win, 8 ways to lose and 1 way to push. Thus the odds are 8-3 AGAINST the don’t player during the come out roll. If a 6 or 8 is established as the point the don’t player now has 6 ways to win and 5 ways to lose his bet.

By taking his don’t bet down after getting thru the come out, when the point is a 6 or 8, the player has taken the worst of both worlds. He had his wager up when the odds were 8-3 against him and took it down when the odds were 6-5 in his favor.

To make matters worse, as if that were possible, by making a put or place bet the player is making another wager in which the house has an advantage over his wager. Specifically the house advantage for a put bet on the 6 or 8 is 9.09% and for a place bet on the 6 or 8 it is 1.52%. The player can reduce the HA on the put bet by taking odds. But it will require at least 5X odds to reduce the put bet on the 6 or 8 to 1.52%, the same as that for a place bet.

By taking down his don’t bet the player is taking down a wager where he has a 9.09% edge OVER the house to make a wager where the house has a 1.52% – 9.09% edge AGAINST the player.

When you see one of these players you can be certain they have no clue about what they are doing. They do not understand anything about the odds of the game or how one should wager.

Thankfully anyone reading this is interested in becoming an advantage player. By following the betting that GTC teaches along with developing a controlled throw you will not be one of these hopeless players who do not understand a thing about the game. But in many cases they think they are doing something really clever. That is the sad part about these situations.

They may have read some very bad advice on how to play or they may have come up with this betting scheme on their own or with the help of friends who are equally clueless.

Why would anyone want to take down a bet where the HA is in their favor to make a different wager where the HA is in the house’s favor?

Skinny, you are by FAR the best Analyist of the game. I always appreciate your input and comments. Thanks

Right on Skinny. Love your input on the math of the game we all love so much.

Rose and Doc

Skinny Just have another question for you . What are the chances or probabilities of rolling a 12 as a come out roll in 36 numbers ?
I practice with out using the same set every roll . So I am going to roll in practice with a hard way set from start to finish to see if I avoid the 12 more often .
In the other rolls I was setting for the 12 or 11 even tho I did not make many .
I know that this is talking about some thing that you don’t like . It just seems that when we are setting the hard ways we would roll less 12 and even less on come out rolls then normal .
IT IS A SLOW TIME OF YEAR IN POSTING SO i JUST GOT A LITTLE BORED SINCE IT IS TOO COLD TO GO OUT SIDE TO PRACTICE ON MY TABLE .Opps forgot to UN cap sorry .
Hope you and family have good holiday .
I just renewed membership for 2 yrs. So you will be seeing more posts from me along with more math questions even tho my son is a math teacher .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

If you do not influence the dice, there should be on average, one 12 for every 36 rolls of the dice.

Noah

Finisher,

Noah gave you the correct info.

Glad to see you renewed your membership. You keep the site lively with your posts and questions. Keep the math questions coming. I love answering them.

You even have an advantage. If you don’t like the answer I give you, ask your son to see if he says something different. You get two choices for the price of one question 🙂

Skinny,

I know you know but I’m posting this for the benefit of other, I on occasion will see a question adressed to others(often Skinny) that has not yet been answered.

If I feel I know the answer I will often answer, knowing that if I am wrong the person the question was addressed to will point out where I am wrong and/but if I am right I have been of help to the person who asked the question. I’m not trying to take the place of who the question was asked of, but am just trying to be helpful as others have helped me in the past.

Noah

ACPA I thought that one in 36 was a math number for just the number 12 and I was asking how many that would be considered a come out 12 for a loss to a DP .
In an earlier post with a practice session I had 12s but only 6 were come out rolls .Even tho I had 31 it seemed low .I also was setting the dice with the 6s on top and 5s facing me on those come out rolls .
I am going to try my next sessions using just hard way set and see what comes up .
Skinny and I have been talking about the Doey don’t way of betting for some time now . It is getting OLD but just came to light that when we talked did we think that every 12 rolled is a come out roll which you loose if you are a DP player .
The session was 1726 rolls with 31 being 12s with 6 being come out rolls .I just wonder if I had used the hard way set instead what the difference would have been .
So I guess what I am really asking is what the ratio is for come out 12s verse 12s thrown ?
Since we try to have longer roll with less 7s we also get less crap numbers too. At least I hope that is how it works .
We had a long discussion about getting points with the doey don’t with me being wrong but with the casinos changing the way they ALL give points that way . The machines I played on use to be crowded and now they are not . They use to pay like the slots pay but no more now it takes 8 times more money to get same point . Just like VP does not pay like slots do for coin in coin out . You have to put more coin in to get same points as slots .
Have you ever looked to see how many come out 12s you have in your practice rolls ? I would bet there a few less then the norm .
I guess I will have to look back and see in other sessions how I did .
But just at a glance I tend to throw less 12s then any thing .I had 2 sessions that I threw 3 with one being a 78 roll and the other was a 124 roll session .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Finisher if you had a total of 72 comeout rolls, then a non dice influencer would expect to have 2 12s out of the 72 rolls, i.e. 1 out of every 36 rolls.

Looking back at some of my casino rolls. One day last October, I had 187 rolls, 35 of which were come out rolls. None of the comeout rolls were 12s.

Last January, I had 593 in casino rolls. 166 of those were comeout and 4 of the comeout rolls were 12s. Expected 12s would have been 4.6 .

So I would have had a no decision on those four rolls if I had a bet on Don’t Pass.

Hope this helps.

Noah

Finisher,

It is exactly as Noah has said, a random roller can expect to throw 1 twelve every 36 come out rolls. He can also expect to throw 1 twelve out of every 36 rolls he has whether it is a come out roll or rolling for a point number. But that does not alter the number of twelves a random roller can expect to throw on his come out rolls. It is still 1 twelve for every 36 come out rolls.

Look at it this way. In a perfect distribution of 36 come out rolls for a random roller, he can expect to throw exactly:

1 two
2 threes
3 fours
4 fives
5 sixes
6 sevens
5 eights
4 nines
3 tens
2 elevens
1 twelve

Notice that 12 of those come out rolls will end in an immediate decision when he throws a 2, 3, 7, 11 or 12. The other 24 come out rolls will establish a point number and he will then go into the point cycle.

But in those 36 perfect come out rolls a random roller can expect to throw exactly 1 twelve.

Skinny I went back and looked to see how many come out rolls there were .
Rolls 1726
come out rolls 513
31 12s with 6 as come outs ones .
But I did notice that I threw 45 2s .
As far as this session went I did not like the out come of it but still going to try to get better .
It is cold here so have not practiced much .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

In 513 rolls a random roller would throw around 14 twelves and 14 twos. In 1726 rolls an RR could expect around 48 twelves and 48 twos.

You did much better than random with the twelves (6 vs 14 and 31 vs 48), but not so with the twos (45 vs 48).

Finisher,

If it is too cold to throw on your table because it is outside, then throw on your bed or someplace else inside. It does not matter if you keep track of the numbers. But it is good to keep the throwing movement and feel of the dice coming off your fingers.

You can watch the dice while they are in the air to see if they are rotating side by side in unison. You can see when they split or wobble like a sputnik. There is a lot you can see about your throw even if it is not on a table and it is good to keep the practice going.

It is getting a little warmer . So have been going out to practice again . Looks like am avoiding that 12 so far 90 throws with one 12 .Not on come out too .
Will practice just the hard way set to see how that is and will let you know after 3,000 rolls or more .
Thanks for all your help .
Good Rolling . 🙂 🙂