Craps

Pressing And Working or Off on the Come Out

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What do the math geniuses on this board say about this? I’ve been told by some experienced DCs that pressing is not the smartest method of increasing your profit but that, rather, you should decide what you want at risk vs the 7 and play it. For example if you are going to play 3 numbers, with full odds, play with the unit size you are going to win with. Spreading out or not would be a separate issue, I guess. But keeping it a simple 3# proposition, for example if you’re playing with $25 green chips, that should be your unit size, and you collect on the bet for as long as it holds. Some experienced players also tell you to always be working on the come out.

Was wondering what the consensus was on this board and why. In practice, I’ve seen where I’m pressing and get several bets up that don’t repeat, and then the 7 shows. If I had not been pressing, I would have collected 3 more times as an example. I’m guessing someone e.g. Stickman or Skinny has a chart on this to show when pressing catches up to and exceeds straight up collection at certain levels. And, I apologize if this is an old topic.

Just wondering.

Keep On Rollin’

Alamo


Replies:

Posted by: brothelman on August 19, 2014, 4:08 am

After obtaining three to four times your initial out lay it is full press pull full press pull alternating on each hit of the number.

When the twenty count is reached come bet on every shot until you are up on all numbers.

Example if you have a 25 come bet on the 6 with 125 dollars in odds and it is time to press when it hits after it hits place for 300 take 350 on next hit then press to 600 on next hit always making sure you have collected for your press before pressing any amount again.

Posted by: Skinny on August 19, 2014, 8:27 am

Mathematically, if you have an advantage as a shooter, then you should be working all your bets on the come out rolls. The math does not know it is a come out roll. Therefore your positive edge exists for all rolls mathematically and you want it on the come out as well as all other rolls.

But psychologically and emotionally it is difficult for some to work their bets on the come out roll. One can view the come out as an opportunity to relax a bit and let the adrenaline from shooting reduce in one’s body. Hence, I do not think it is a good idea to work your bets on the come out roll. I believe it is better to use that as an opportunity to relax and regroup for the next battle once you establish a new point.

As for flat betting vs. pressing, there is no way one can make more flat betting if you are reasonably proficient at controlled shooting. If we look at a simple up a unit progression we see that after 3 hits one is ahead by pressing. But after 5 hits one is so far ahead the flat bettor can not possibly catch up. All one needs is a few times with numerous hits to put one far ahead of the flat bettor.

The flat bettor is $12 ahead after 1 hit and $10 ahead after 2 hits. But after that the press bettor does much better. That should more than make up for the slight advantage the flat bettor has after 1 or 2 hits if the controlled shooter has a modicum of skill.

[pre].
Up a Unit Flat Bets
Hit# Bet Win Total Bet Win Total
0 12 0 -12 12 0 -12
1 24 2 -10 12 14 2
2 36 16 6 12 14 16
3 48 30 36 12 14 30
4 60 44 80 12 14 44
5 72 58 138 12 14 58[/pre]

Posted by: Goddess on August 19, 2014, 8:58 am

Here is Stickman’s chart of unit presses vs press and pull and pull and press:

http://www.goldentouchcraps.com/Stickma … 0004.shtml

Posted by: The Griz on August 19, 2014, 11:34 pm

Dom preaches to bet into your edge…
Alamo also noted "risk"… This game is all about risk tolerance.
Another reason to go big, then regress to table minimums?
Just playing devil’s advocate, but if you roll consistently into teens, get big for a few rolls then regress.
Yes, if you come out with BIG bets, and you hit, you will come away with a tidy profit.
And vice versa… A quick devil showing up ruins the whole party.
IF you have an edge that is quantifiable, and if you can bring confidence to the table, you should be up more than down. Practice sessions prove this out. 401-g is looking better than ever, may try this out in live play next month.
Your mileage may vary…

Posted by: brothelman on August 20, 2014, 7:40 am

Griz there are a couple of people around that used to play around with a 6400 across one hit and down, what do they have to say about regressing?

Posted by: Dr Crapology on August 20, 2014, 10:56 am

Tex, Rose and I never have our bets working on a come out roll after a point is made for the simple that IF the 7 were to come on that roll you would lose and psychologically I would be down and out AND I still have the dice. I know the odds may be in my favor but my concentration would be broken and my focus in the toilet. It has happened in the past. As Skinny says that is a time to relax, refocus and move on. I may lower my bets a little after that come out, as that 7 may be telling me my throw is a little off, so I tread lightly.

Griz, as for the $6400 across, one hit and take them down–the one time one does throw a 7, $6400 is a pretty big hole I would not want to dig out of. This from a $5 or $10 come better. Have seen a player get the dice with $220 inside, have it working and bang here come a 7. He does it again and bam again another come out 7. He has lost 8 bets and in the future he will be winning one bet at a time. So assuming he starts to have a good roll after 8 pay days he still has 4 bets for $220 on the table so must make 4 more wins to break even.

Just as observation from the peanut gallery.

Doc

Posted by: AlamoTx on August 20, 2014, 6:56 pm

Several comments here.

First, re Skinny’s chart on pressing the 6 or 8 vs collecting: Those charts look very convincing, but we all know that actual play rarely runs that smoothly. You have to have the roll last long enough to get those 5 hits. Just an observation restricted to a strict 6/8 place betting scenario. The charts don’t take into account the times when you’re praying for a 6 and 8, and you’re on roll 11 and have only hit a couple of them. The real issue comes when you are come betting though. Pressing come bets is a different animal, and I imagine we all play those differently. Lately, I’m working on establishing 3 numbers with PL and two come bets. 2d time a come bet with full odds hits, I’m converting it to a place bet and leaving it up at a $50 or $60 unit size and moving $20 or $30 of the payout over to an open number. When any $20/$30 number hits, I’m pressing it to $50 or $60. Eventually all the come bets are converted and the box is covered with $50/$60 unit bets. Going up a unit when you’ve got bets across or come bets often reduces what could have been pretty good gains had you racked half a dozen $70 payouts, versus going up a unit from the get go. By the time you are covering the box this way, you might be past roll 15. You have to be honest with yourself….how much longer is your roll likely to last. A shooter with an SRR of 7 goes over 20 rolls something like only 7 or 8% of the time! Given the math stats, would it be just as valid to have a rule where you don’t start going up a unit until you’ve had a certain number of straight up hits at a certain payout level? In this case say, you rack 5 hits at $70 and then start going up a unit on any number that hits from then on? I know the Big Skinny collects until I think 7 hits or something like that and then starts pressing by adding an equivalent Place Bet to the number that is being pressed. Then you count hits at that level before going up on numbers again. Or is the whole issue just ‘how aggressive do you want to be from the outset"? As an aside, I’ve done some serious house cleaning using the above described method, and its also pretty good at keeping your losses down until you have got yourself into a decent roll.

Regarding regression strategy. I have found that SOMETIMES..i.e. pretty damn often, I can Place the 6 and 8 for $120 each and will hit a 6 or an 8 rather early in the roll. My rule using this strategy would be to let the 6 and 8 sit there at $120 each until one of them hits or a 5 count elapses, whichever comes first. If you get a hit inside the 5 count that = a quick $140 pay out. Rack the $140, take the 6 and 8 down to $60 each ($30 if you want to lock an immediate small profit ) Play at the new level using whatever method you like because it is all profit at that point. Caveat: EVERY REGRESSION METHOD has this RISK….the 7 will blow you out sometimes. On this regression, I’m using the 5 count as a check on myself. If I don’t hit a 6 or 8 before the 5 count, I take them down to $30 each and start a come betting progression until I get my 3 numbers up and can work per above. If you happen to hit one of the $30 numbers, you’ll get some help posting your odds. My strategic thinking on the above 6/8 strategy would be like this: Using my 3 tries and out rule, let’s say I’ve had the dice twice with less than spectacular results. Thus, I’m only going to give it one more shot. Why not appease the dice gods and put $240 out there for them to see that I’m willing to truly worship them as they desire? If they don’t like the $240 idea, they take it from you as a burnt offering, and you leave, muttering dice god prayers under your breath. If you hit a 6 or an 8, hey, you might just stick around and cut those earlier losses a bit. Kind of like heaving a pass downfield in the last 5 minutes of a football game where you really need a quick score! Or use the 6/8 regression after you’ve made a nasty profit and want one more quick turn with the cubes but don’t want to wait on the ‘build up’ method to get the cash machine rolling again?

And, psychologically, I’m with those of you whose ball sacks tighten up real bad on a "working" come out roll where a whole bunch of numbers are sitting up there waiting to keep working for you. Ladies, I know you do not have ball sacks (well…maybe some of you do now that so much is morally and politically correct in America), so mentally employ a physiologically similar analogy for females in analyzing the feeling of working on the come out. Bottom line. I just don’t think I can bring myself to do it using live ammo.

And…finally…I really do want to be there when Griz goes $6400 across! That will be a MUST SEE! I’ll be armed up with a pair of Depends, even if he isn’t! After the first hit, I can hear it now: "Take my $6400 down and drop it to $64 across! I’m going to kick your ass now!"

If I win the lottery, I’m going to do $6400 across though…at least once….maybe at Binion’s or somewhere they really love dice controllers! (Lighten up! I’m not talking about their table conditions!) And, would there be a table max involved in there somewhere, or is table max a per number thing?

Eventually, the 7 ruins the party for every type of bettor. Eh?….as they’d say in Canada.

Keep On Rollin’

Alamo

Posted by: The Griz on August 21, 2014, 3:28 pm

An early 7 ALWAYS ruins the party, unless you went dark side!

Don’t worry, Doc, the ol’ Griz’s 401-G cannot stand a $6400 across one-hit regression strategy…!
But maybe a couple hundred?? 😎

Alamo, I’d need those Depends even for the flight out to Vegas if I was ever thinking of that strategy!

Like I said, it’s all about risk tolerance, and that pesky PSO rearing it’s ugly head, esp on a few in a row…
Risk tolerance and confidence sound like two additional components to have, in addition to practice and having the grip, toss, etc.
See you at the tables!
Griz

Posted by: AlamoTx on August 21, 2014, 3:59 pm

Just FYI, in practice yesterday, I had two hands that were ‘so so’ but ended up losing me a little money. I decided to play the next hand with $120 6 & 8 and regress to $60 each on the first hit, 5 counting and dropping the 6 & 8 down to $30 each if I couldn’t get a hit within a 5 count. Established a point with no odds and did not hit 6 or 8 within a 5 count. Decided to have one more roll to see if I could get the 6 or 8. On roll 6 of the 5 count, the 7 showed and wiped $250 off the board in one fell swoop! Granted, probably 70% of the time, I’ll pick up at least one 6 or 8 within the first five or six throws, and the regression strategy would be great. Reality check. I find regression strategies to have sort of a reverse Martingale effect. With regression, instead of getting your pain in increasing increments until that one time when you are destroyed by the big last press (Martingale), you put it all out there at once and wait for the big sunami that makes all the little previous wins go away with one swing of the axe! No regressions for me on place bets.

I have thought about locking in wins while come betting when the 7 knocks you off the board after you’ve already got a decent profit in the rack. By not going back up heavy while re-building, you can walk with most of the saved odds if a quick 7 hits you. In other words, if you were a $10 player in a 3,4,5x odds game, on a come out 7, you could save your odds, which could be as much as $140 or so on 3 numbers, and then go to $30 each on the 6 and 8 and work that strategy until you could rebuild or 7 out. I’ve never locked like that, but it is something to think about for sure.

Keep On Rollin’

Alamo