Craps

Craps as it might relate to Game Theory or Manufacturing Green thobs

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So you are running a business and you have six prime suppliers of the same base material you use in your product – a sort of green stuff. Two are relatively close to your manufacturing facility but they are costlier – you get less for what you spend on their material. The next two are hard to transport materials from but they are a bargain compared to the suppliers close to your manufacturing facility. And last you have two suppliers that are very competitive and they can provide you with twice as much materials for around the same cost but they are difficult to deal with due to location and transportation issues.

You have three issues to weigh, material costs, transportation issues, and have to deal with the fact that quality of the various suppliers material varies over time and you end up buying materials based on small test samples. As a result you end purchasing from all the suppliers at one time or another but some obviously some more than others but not for any clear reasons.

Note all of your competitors are located close to you and basically have the same transportation costs and transportation issues. And some of your competitors are better capitalized and can financially survive bad decisions or market fluctuations that none of you have control of. And some are not as well capitalized as your company so their decision will vary like your’s but probably to a greater degree

So to insure that your company stays competitive you end up buying from all of them at one time or another to spread you business in an attempt to keep the supply market competitive.

The competition to your company come from others that are willing to risk timely delivery and pay more for transportation but they purchase the resource material at half the price.

One of your competitor just follows what you do.

One competitor strictly buys from the closest supplier no matter what based on availability and consistent pricing and return on their material. Pays more for what they get in return but they believe consistency is important

Another competitor buys smaller amounts from each supplier and averages out the cost for material and transportation but does so using data collected over a period of time that they believes gives them statistical evidence as to which supplier to use. This data includes their SRR and the distribution of their throws to the seven – specifically individual box numbers to sevens ratios.

Now how are you going to manage your company and gain market share over your competition in the thob market?? Or go broke from making bad decisions as compared to your competition.


Replies:

Posted by: Dr Crapology on July 22, 2014, 12:10 pm

To us it is pretty simple. You go with what the math tells you and the supplier that gives you the best "bang for your buck." The long term statistics (read results to get the best SRR and/or Smart craps ) will give you your answer. We believe it will be the GTC supplier, as it is the one that will benefit your bottom line regardless of distance, or investment.

Just hope we correctly understand your analysis.

Rose and Doc

Posted by: NickatNight on July 22, 2014, 4:14 pm

That was a wonderful analogy and should have many on the board think about what it takes to succeed. Dr Crapology is on the mark. Long term goals that are thought out and planned on makes for success. But, I really liked your idea and applied that process to my business in the past and it does work. Your post was a nice change.

Posted by: brothelman on July 22, 2014, 9:14 pm

I take every job on a case by case bases.

If I do not think I can make money on it I walk.

If I can not do it and leave with a good end result in quality I walk.

I do not risk my company on a cheaper material that might hurt me in the long run by causing me call backs.

So I only play on tables I can beat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: TheLion on July 23, 2014, 5:03 pm

Sounds like a question one would see on the CPA exam or the LSAT

I go where I KNOW I have an advantage and can maximize profits with a small investment …..think FIRE !!!!

Posted by: The Breeze on July 24, 2014, 2:25 pm

I’m not sure but I think Game Theory includes more factors than the pure statistics of the random distribution – bell curve. The two factors I included in the initial example above that provided additional data to consider are the SRR and the specific ratio of individual box numbers to each seven. I should probably said the individual distribution of all the possible outcomes based on your particular throw.

These two data sets are specific to the individual shooter and are not random for a good Advantaged player. This not random/less random data on outcomes is individual to each shooter and can also be biased by using particular dice sets. This is where the business decisions come in. Where do I direct my investments to have the best outcome and determine the long term success for my business? And the best data collection is probably data collected on a specific table that you use to place your investments. Practice table data collected on your practice rig may not correspond directly to what you do in the real world at the casino but it may be the best data most of us have.
Now if you were to overlay your personal rolls data over top of the random dice bell curve data you would see where you are doing business more often and could then decide how to allocate your investments based on the ROI for those locations.

At this point what’s the difference between gambling and educated gambling? Many of us have 401Ks that we don’t have a clue on what the outcome is going to be other than the previous history (SSR-Roll Data) and our perception of ability of the fund managers and we call that investing. I think when it’s all said and done you have to plan for the future and look at the long term outcome but if you see certain market conditions happening in the short run you might want to jump on them with come bets followed by place bets and let it rip. Oh and maybe consider placing the 6 & 8. I sure do love this game!