Craps

Recording Rolls

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When I record my rolls I do so when I start my practice session. I may record 3 hands, and then I start working on whatever seems to be my biggest problem for the night. I do it this way because I don’t want to be fooled into thinking I have more of an advantage than I do. It is an hour to the nearest casino, so when I play locally I can warm up 1 hour before I get to the casino. Is this how most of you record your rolls ?
TommyC


Replies:

Posted by: Dominator on April 1, 2014, 1:41 pm

Tommy …

Before you record, give yourself a little warm up like maybe 10 to 15 rolls. Also, here is another thing you can do to keep you into practicing that I do …..

I do a buy in at the table in practice and try to double my buy in. I buy in for $500 and play. I might roll for 3 turns with the dice and i record my wins and losses. This cna help you as well in:

1. keeping you into practicing
2. give you the confidence that you are a winner
3. give you the confidence that you can come back from a loss

Dom

Posted by: TommyC on April 1, 2014, 1:46 pm

Thanks, Dom

Posted by: getagrip on April 1, 2014, 2:40 pm

Hi Dom!

If you don’t mind, could I ask a question about your casino practice sessions? You say you buy in for $500 and then try to double that amount. With that amount in mind, what does your initial table exposure look like in practice? Either specific bets and amounts or just % of that $500 bankroll would be great. Does this % basically mimic what you would use in a real casino session as far as initial exposure or are you more aggressive in practice just to have fun? What would be your suggestion of exposure if you had this session bankroll for a real casino session. I guess it is a little like risk in the stock market in that everyone can comfortably except a different amount of risk but would still be interested in your answers about this for informational purposes.

Tommy, sorry to hijack your thread a little but am trying to get a handle on betting exposure as it pertains to session bankroll. When Dom mentioned this I thought "Why not learn from the best!" Thanks! 🙂

Posted by: TommyC on April 1, 2014, 4:13 pm

No problem. My question was answered. He told me a year ago to go home and practice betting just like I would bet at the casino, until I knew exactly what I would do when I had the dice. Also we were taught to never make a bet that made us think about the bet. Our mind has to be on the dice not the bet.
TommyC

Posted by: Dominator on April 3, 2014, 1:01 pm

"getagrip" wrote: Hi Dom!

If you don’t mind, could I ask a question about your casino practice sessions? You say you buy in for $500 and then try to double that amount. With that amount in mind, what does your initial table exposure look like in practice? Either specific bets and amounts or just % of that $500 bankroll would be great. Does this % basically mimic what you would use in a real casino session as far as initial exposure or are you more aggressive in practice just to have fun? What would be your suggestion of exposure if you had this session bankroll for a real casino session. I guess it is a little like risk in the stock market in that everyone can comfortably except a different amount of risk but would still be interested in your answers about this for informational purposes.

Tommy, sorry to hijack your thread a little but am trying to get a handle on betting exposure as it pertains to session bankroll. When Dom mentioned this I thought "Why not learn from the best!" Thanks! 🙂

Hi GetaGrip

Before I go into what I do with that $500, I need to address something else in your question and this might be a little long winded, but is so important: "What would be your suggestion of exposure if you had this session bankroll for a real casino session." … No one should be thinking about a session bank roll or a percentage of a session buy in. You all should have a Life time bank roll, that is, …. not what you buy in for but what you have at home or in a 401G account as your stake for craps play. When you were not a dice controller and read other books, these so called craps experts all talk about going to Vegas with a dollar amount and then dividing that dollar amount into the amount of sessions you were going to play. They did this so that the reader wouldn’t blow their money all in one day in Vegas.

This is a good way for slot players that play Double Diamond slots, but not for a player that wants to play games where he or she has an edge. When you are playing games where you have an edge, the percentage that you initially put on the table should be against your Life time bankroll for that game. Then as you win and lose this Life bank roll will increase and decrease. That is what will keep you in the game with your initial LTB (life time bank roll) or if you have to reload it.

So now what is this percentage you should use against your LTB as your initial bet? This is called your "ROR" or "RISK OF RUIN". What is your ROR and what does that mean? ROR means … what is the amount (percentage) you are willing to initially bet that if you lose this initial bet every time,… how many turns with the dice( or any game) before you blow your LTB. Or as Webster states:
Risk of ruin is a concept in gambling, insurance, and finance relating to the likelihood of losing all one’s capital or impacting one’s bankroll to the point that it cannot be recovered. For instance, if someone bets all their money on a simple coin toss, the risk of ruin is 50%.

So each individual has to determine what their ROR is.

Now this $500 buy in that I use in practice. My initial spread is a $30 6/8 and a $10 come bet with max odds at a 3,4,5 X game and $10 passline with max odds. I will sometimes use a hit and press method during the practice game and sometimes use a more conservative approach. It really depends on what I feel like so you might say it is for fun, but in reality it is practicing how my betting will go in a live game. I do this to practice my betting techniques so that I don’t have to think about what I will do during the hand. Betting should be just like your toss … all muscle memory and NO thinking involved. The thinking should be during practice.

As long as this response is long winded, I want to add something else. A student sent this to me about betting this morning:

From what I read on the website, the betting style you each attempted to teach my family and I last year, was not getting through to most of the posters. Either I did not get it or they did not and I have watched each of you bet enough to know that I’m closer to the way you bet than they are. I’m beginning to think like Pat, He asked ”Why pay your money for class if you are going to do what the hell you want anyway”. I do enjoy the website anyway.

Here is my response:

Timmer is right about leading a horse to water.

Starting last year, we wanted to emphasize betting more than we ever did. That is why we have two lectures on it now and we have everyone take it over and over again. We went from telling everyone to do it this way, (which didn’t work) to talking about WHY everyone should make certain bets and stay away from other bets.

The problem is craps players in general. Most craps players started playing craps and wanting to play it more because they had a big win at a session, and that big win was probably because they played some of the stupid bets and won by luck. That high has never left them. This is the big difference between craps players and blackjack card counters. BJ players understand edge and a card counter as a student has always been our best student when understanding edge. Poker player students the same.

Maybe again we need to tweak our lectures

Dom

Posted by: Skinny on April 3, 2014, 4:28 pm

getagrip,

I am so happy Dom wrote what he did. First it is an excellent response that addresses the singular issue that is so hard to get across to folks. Too many people have bought in to the loss limit concept and are costing themselves opportunities to make money as a result of it. We can not stress strongly enough the concept of having a 401G (lifetime gambling bankroll – LTB) that is sufficient enough to withstand any long term negative variance and is big enough so that you do not "sweat the money" when you make your wagers. As a controlled shooter who has a verifiable edge your decision to play or not should be based solely on playing conditions, not on whether you are ahead or behind for that session, day or trip of several days. By playing conditions I mean specifically how you feel physically and mentally as well as the table itself (crew, players and conditions).

As far as how I handle the money at the table I can give you my approach. My buy in is generally 6-8 times my initial amount at risk (initial spread). I don’t increase my initial spread until I have a sufficient profit in my rails to warrant pressing or spreading out. But my buy in is not a loss limit. If I lose my buy in and conditions are still favorable, I have no problem buying in again for the same amount as my first buy in. I play with markers so I have a credit limit at the casino which I use to get my chips. My credit limit is typically 70 – 100 times my initial spread. I guess you could look at that as a trip bankroll but in reality I could always get a temporary increase to my limit if for some reason I should ever lose that much on any given trip. So in that respect I don’t really have a trip limit. Finally the 401G. My 401G is approximately 350 – 500 times my initial spread. That is the only limit I have to my gaming wagers. There are no financial limits on my individual sessions, daily limits or trip limits. I realize these numbers can be daunting to players who have never thought this way before. But if you are serious about becoming a winner you need to give earnest consideration to what we are saying. I am sharing my information with you because I want you to realize, this is not only what we teach but what we actually do in live play.

I also wanted to comment on a trip report that was written by Scooter recently. I believe he was with other GTC players on that trip. In that post he said,

"Scooter" wrote: Old man Steve left early before the action heated up as he reached his loss limit.

Later in the trip they had some great rolls and HWJ had an EPIC roll in which Scooter and most of his GTC friends made sizable 4 and 5 figure wins.

THAT is the problem with a loss limit when you or the friends with whom you are playing all have a verifiable edge over the casino. Any one of you can break out at any point in time. You need to have a 401G and be betting within the limits of that 401G so that losses on any trip or series of trips can not prevent you from playing when conditions are favorable. If this player had adhered to our advice, he would not have missed that epic roll opportunity.

GTC provides all the tools one needs to be successful in the casinos with their classes and this website. The rewards are there for those willing to do the work necessary. It begins by being vigilant in class and continues when one commits to following and implementing the lessons.

Posted by: DoughBoy on April 3, 2014, 7:28 pm

Thanks Dom and Skinny; I find this information invaluable. I think it really sets the GTC philosophy apart and I have another tool to work with. I know that I can really identify with my old ways of thinking about losses and this way is a definite shift. Thanks again for your generosity. DoughBoy

Posted by: Dr Crapology on April 3, 2014, 10:39 pm

Here is a thought to go with this threat that I don’t see posted much if at all. If anyone disagrees with me please let me know.

Question: why do the casinos win so much money with such–in many cases–small edges?

First of all they have an edge on each and every bet made in the casino with the exception of the odds bet, which has to be made with a bet (pass line/come bet) that has an edge, so they still have an advantage. This is not rocket science but the simple fact that we are all familiar with. Nothing new here.

Secondly, the casino has a incredibly large "bankroll"—often in the $10’s of millions or even $100’s of millions of dollars. They can withstand an incredible swing in the negative direction because they will not run out of money. The tide will turn and they will win back any losses and then some. They always do. They many not win back from the player who had a big win on the craps table, but they will win the money back at Blackjack or slots from other players. They are good for the long run. I know, I know that some twit pit boss or suit upstairs may go ballistic with a short run loss. but the long run is always there for them.

Here is an example Rose and I recently experienced. We were at a casino for several days with 2 tables open. One was packed and the other "reserved" for some some high roller who reportedly won a 7 figure profit and was coming back. The casino kept the table open for 2 days but he never showed up. They were welcoming him back with open arms. By now he has probably showed up and lost his rear end back. I bet he is a random roller who got lucky.

And that my friend is why we preach about bankroll as mentioned earlier in this threat. Don’t ever go to the casino under bankrolled–a short down turn can close you down.

Doc

Posted by: Finisher on April 4, 2014, 7:09 am

I still think that their big advantage is that when they win it is on all bets on table . At least one side which is played most . When we as players win it is one or two bets . The math says more players more bets .
Good Rolling. 🙂

Posted by: Skinny on April 4, 2014, 7:44 pm

I wrote an article Part One: The law of large numbers that is on the GTC public main page in which I stated:

Casinos win for 3 basic reasons:

1. Casinos have far more dollars than any individual player, thus ensuring the player is more likely to go broke than the casino.

2. Odds that favor the casino resulting in negative expected return for the player.

3. Casinos utilize risk management techniques that limit their maximum loss.

By using those same techniques, one can win in the casinos. In fact, these are the very same strategies taught by Golden Touch Craps in our classes. Make sure you are properly funded for the bets you are making. Turn the odds in your favor so that you have an advantage through proven methods. Utilize risk management techniques to limit your maximum loss.

Just to clarify how GTC teaches you to employ the same techniques I will explain what I meant by each point.

1. Casinos have far more dollars than any individual player, thus ensuring the player is more likely to go broke than the casino.

GTC teaches about having a 401G that is sufficiently large in relation to your wagers that you are in the same relative position to your bankroll as casino’s are in relation to what they have at risk in relation to the players.

2. Odds that favor the casino resulting in negative expected return for the player.

This should be self evident. GTC teaches players how to gain an advantage with a controlled shot that can overcome the statistical advantage casinos have built in to the pay outs for the wagers. In addition GTC has developed Smart Craps that provides a method for verifying what your edge is in relation to various wagers based on scientific methods of statistical mathematics.

3. Casinos utilize risk management techniques that limit their maximum loss.

This one is a little more tricky because it sounds like I am discussing stop loss limits which I spoke against specifically in my posts above. First you need to understand what techniques the casinos use. They have minimum and maximum wagers in all their games. This enables them to minimize the variance that occurs naturally in random games when a game gets "hot" and the players are winning consistently. They know a small player or players who hit a lucky streak can not hurt them as long as they limit the amount they can wager with the "house’s money" because they will eventually get most of that back from them over time. But without maximum limits the players could win an amount that they would never give back over time. They don’t have any problem allowing higher limits for a "high roller" because he is consistently wagering those large amounts. His swings will be within normal ranges just with larger units. It is true that a single "high roller" could impact the bottom line for any given month with a big win. But with enough high rollers or enough play by the winning high roller, they will eventually get their money back in the future. Casinos that cater to those type of players have larger variances (bigger swings in win/loss) but they have the capital to withstand those swings. They play against a large number of high rollers so eventually they end up in the black because the math is in their favor.

By now you may be asking yourself where is the parallel to the teaching of GTC. Simply put, GTC teaches you to play (based on playing conditions) only when you have an advantage. Make wagers that are within the limits of your 401G. Make wagers in which you have an advantage. Stay away from the carnival wagers that have a high house advantage which is beyond your ability to overcome. Do not shoot when you are tired or the table conditions are not favorable to you. Limit your time shooting at the table because this is a physical skill and you need to be in peak physical condition to play your best. Adrenaline and time at the table are both exhausting elements that reduce your ability to play effectively. GTC recommends limiting the number of times you shoot in any given session and the amount of time you stay at the table for both of those reasons. These are all risk management techniques for an advantage player with a controlled throw that are designed to help you minimize your losses when conditions are not favorable.

I hope this is clear to those who have taken the classes how GTC is teaching the same proven techniques casinos use in, order to turn a profit, to the students who want to become advantage players and come out ahead over the life of their gaming adventures.

While writing this I just thought of a 4th technique casinos use and GTC teaches.

4. Casinos try to maximize their wins by getting as much money wagered when they have an advantage. Since casinos always have a mathematical advantage on every bet this translates to them trying to get as much money wagered as possible. They are open 24/7. With table games they try to speed up the games so that they can get as much money on the table as they can. With slots they have sped up the games with credits, eliminating the one-armed bandit, computer games that are faster than the older machines, etc.

GTC now stresses betting more than they ever had before. It is important to bet properly, within the limits of one’s advantage, in order to maximize the opportunity for winning. Some of those betting techniques point out that it is important to increase the amount of one’s wagers at appropriate times in the betting cycle. GTC teaches controlled ways to do that with mathematical statistics that show how to maximize your wins when conditions are favorable. It is up to each individual to determine your tolerance for risk. But GTC teaches how being too much risk averse can be just as costly as being too reckless. Each individual needs to determine their own path but you will now have the tools to be able to make those decisions as an informed player. The betting GTC teaches will assist students in maximizing their wins.

Posted by: TommyC on April 5, 2014, 3:09 am

Thanks Dom, Doc and Skinny for trying to continue to not only teach us correctly, but also attempt to make us understand.
TommyC

Posted by: Dr Crapology on April 5, 2014, 11:24 am

Skinny always says it best. Glad we were able to get this important information on the board.

Doc

Posted by: Mr Finesse on April 6, 2014, 3:36 pm

Thanks Skinny.

Posted by: Dominator on April 6, 2014, 8:14 pm

Skinny I am so glad that you went to this article. I was thinking about it over the weekend and was going to look for the link.

Always remember people that it is not only the toss that you need to master, but also the betting!
Dominator

Posted by: getagrip on April 7, 2014, 9:37 pm

Sorry, it has taken me a while to get back to you all regarding my questions. What a wealth of information I received in all of your answers. It will take me awhile to digest it all and I am sure I will return and reread this many times to make sure I am fully understanding it all!

Dom, no you were not long winded at all! I appreciate your thorough answers to my questions. I can see your point about ROR and the leftover thinking on playing Craps prior to becoming an Advantage player. I will have to work on changing my thinking regarding that concept and adopt a more current and Advantage view of all things Craps!

Skinny, WOW! You certainly have nerves of steel! 😆 I have no doubt you are 150% correct but I will have to work on my mental game even more than I thought I needed to. Funny thing is I have been patting myself on the back because I have built my 401G to about 200 times my initial spread. Good thing I didn’t break my arm! Now I see that I need to go back and build my 401G even more so I don’t fret about the money on the table. I think I have come to the realization that my personality is just such that I want to control the variance in the short term rather than becoming the winner in the long term. I appreciate your sharing so much info with us. I think it will help me see the big picture and strive for that! Thanks for all the great articles you included as well.