What a great and interesting post. We look forward to others who will post some thoughts—Skinny, Dom, Finesse or other math statistical wizards ???

Alligator Rose and Doc

Alamo,

There is, I believe, a major flaw in the way you calculate. In 300 rolls with an SRR of 6 that would be 50 seven outs. That leaves 250 rolls divided by 50 equals 5 as your average hand length. The average hand length can never be greater than the SRR. You would have to have an SRR of 20.59 to have an average hand length of 13.5 in 300 rolls.

While the SRR is not the be all end all it is a reliable yard stick when you have enough rolls to be significant and that is at least 5000 rolls. This is why the 5 count works because random is an SRR of 6.

Here is where things get interesting. I will use my rolls last Sunday as the example. Early day I had a 13, made a little. Then I had many hands of 2 or 3 rolls, losing a lot. After dinner continued bad until I changed casinos. This particular casino had a new felt since I was in the week before. There were only 4 players including myself. I passed the dice and watched for 4 turns analyzing the table. I did bet on one shooter and made a little. I rolled a 13 the first time, then had a nice 24 with only 2 yo’s, made 4 points 2 of which were establish the point then make it. During this roll I had no 2’s, 3’s, or 12’s. I came home up just a little. Now, if I had had a lot, say 7, crap numbers the outcome would have been much different possibly depending on if I hit the same number of box numbers that I had a bet on. Had I not hit my bet numbers and they were replaced by the crap numbers then I may not have made any money on the roll. This would be variance. Still a nice hand of 24 but not very profitable.

The point here is that SRR is a decent guide but average hand length is not.

I also roll with the 3V and 2V sets chasing my point with decent success. I still get too many double pitches for the hardway set so only use it rarely. Since with the 3V half of the double pitches are 3 or 11 and with the 2V 4 and 10 those seem to work best for me.

If the powers that be see a flaw with my post I’m sure someone will speak up.

Good Rolling

OneMoonCircles

Check me if I’m wrong here but SRR does not have a direct correlation to average roll length. Say I throw the dice 25 times, but I start with 2 come out 7’s and then during the roll I hit 3 points and each of them is following by a come out 7. My SRR would be 5 but my roll would still be a 25.
If I’m missing something here, please let me know.

The Contractor

OMC,

I think your confused. Average hand length is usual larger than your SRR I believe.

Say first five rolls are all sevens, followed by a a point. Next five numbers were craps followed by repeat of your point.

Next roll is the same point number followed by a seven. So total hand length was 15, with six sevens or a SRR of 2.5.

Am I missing something.

I see contractor raised the same issue while I was typing my reply.

Noah

Yes Noah,

Average hand length is higher than the srr for exactly that reason. Crap numbers and sevens on the come out roll extend the hand length.
That is why a random roller with a SRR of 6 has an average hand length of close to 8.

I do agree that the hand length for us is important. My average hand length is in the range of 12. I have not calculated my SRR in a while but it is in the 7.5 area.

NFF

There we go. I see how the hand length may be longer. I count mine this way. Since I set for the 7 on the comeout it is counted in the hand length but not against the SRR, only 7 outs in comparison with the practice length of 120 rolls. If one is not setting for the 7 on the comeout then all 7’s are against the SRR. At least this is how I have been doing it for the last 5 years as this is how I understood it from Frank’s books.

Perhaps another answer needs to be provided by the original poster. How many come out 7’s? Were you setting for them?

Am I totally wrong? If you think so…………explain your position.

OMC

Hand length and SRR may correlate in some way, but basically, hand length = the number of rolls you have in a point cycle before you 7 out. You could roll 3 sevens in a row coming out and, while that might destroy your SRR number, it might not affect hand length. When I"m in live play, I usually employ a 3 and out strategy, meaning if I don’t win after three 7 outs, I leave the table. I compile my statistics using that model. Might as well know what I’m going to get in real play conditions. And , to measure hand length, you can’t set for 7s on the come out and then change sets after the point is established because you are not then measuring a steady set against random. If you’re going to measure average rolls per hand, remember, you are measuring a given set and throw against expected random. Similarly, you can’t calculate your SRR by setting for 7s on the come out. Your SRR will look like shit : ), assuming you can actually hit more 7s setting for them. As an aside, more than a few knowledgeable shooters suggest measuring your Double Pitches to Primaries and going to a 7 set if the ratio is significantly backwards (3/2 for example). You just have to have the statistics to back up such a tactic. If your DPs/Primaries is 1/1 (random) but your SRR is 6.2 +, then you probably need to look at another set than 7s for hitting box numbers…or stay at the drawing board until both measurements improve. Just my opinion, and I am by far not the statistics guy that some of you are.

What I was trying to bring up in discussion is the relevance of both numbers. One of you guys mentioned having a hand length of 12 and an SRR of 7.5. Assuming you are using one consistent set to determine those averages, you have a strong indication that the set is generating far better than random results. I am tinkering with different sets right now but don’t have enough rolls to reach decent conclusions yet. The V2, as an example, is currently generating very long hands ( 15 per hand) but the SRR is unspectacular though better than random. Using what the earlier poster said, if one or another of my sets begins generating longer than average rolls AND an advantage SRR, over more than 1000 rolls, that may begin to indicate a set which will be good to use in game conditions. Also important, but harder to measure is how a given set earns or loses money. The problem for me there is that I go back and forth between betting strategies, amounts at risk etc. You have to really be disciplined to bet the exact same way each hand for 5000 rolls. ( At least I do, since I’m constantly experimenting ). And, if you’re a smart better, almost any hand over 15 is going to make you money.

One thing I’ve also noticed is that as my axis control has improved, the HW set has become a bit 7 rich for me now. Almost all of my 7 outs are 4/3 and 5/2. The vile double pitch! I am throwing a lot of HWs also, but not enough when measured against the double pitch 7s. The conclusion is that I believe I am transitioning into being more of a V3 shooter for that reason. My problem is one die pitching a couple of clicks rather than the opposite pitch issue. That may be why the V2 is not as successful for me as the V3. But, I do diverge other than to emphasize that we are never safe with just one set for life (IMO) because the grip and the throw are always dynamic. Our constant attempts to get better change the results we get with given sets.

I believe that any measure we can use vs random to guage our progress is useful over the long haul. If two things (hand length and SRR) correlate positively, that’s better than relying only on one thing (SRR).

Keep On Rollin’

Alamo

AlamoTx I just had to commit on one thing you said . It is about making money on hands over 15 .I went to casino and told myself that I would try come betting this time only .
Well it started out good .Rolled a 6 for the point number then rolled 4 numbers which I then had 4 come bets and rolled the 6 .I was only betting one times odds .Not good .
Then rolled a 7 lost my come bets . neg. 4.00 .
Roll a 5 for point .
PUT OUT COME BET .
Roll 3 more numbers have 3 come bets out .
Make the 5 .
Then roll a 7 .LOOSE 3 COME BETS .
dp PLAYER IS HAPPY EVER BODY IS HAPPY ON PLACE SIDE .
Then roll a 8 for point .
Put out come bets .
Then rolled a few more numbers and made 2 come bets but made my point again and since I was so happy that I won on 2 come bets forgot to bet on 7 and it came again after I made my point .Lost 4 come bets .This happened again with 3 come bets but I made a bet on the 7 which I did not do the math good enough but did get some money back .
Then est. another point and did the same thing . But this time dealer told me how much I needed on the 7 .
All this time I was setting hard way .I was not trying to hit the 7 at all it just came up that way .
There was a few crap numbers in there a few times .
I made 6 points with 5 come out 7s . It just seemed like ever body even the DP player was making more money then me .
This was just some thing that I wanted to try .
Like one time I tried betting just the 8 which for the win it took 4 rollers including myself and 42 rolls for a win . 😀 😀
I tell players if you bet the opposite of my bets you will win . 😀 😀
I bet the 6 and 8 one time and the guy next to me bet the field . I rolled 16 numbers before I hit the 8 then rolled a 7 .The guy next to me was a happy camper . 😀 😀
I just don’t fit into that winning group for 15 rolls .
Good Rolling. 😀 😀

Finisher,

My thoughts on your come betting:

1. You have way too many bets out on the table early. With so much early exposure it hard to recoup the losses when you lose 4 or 5 bets on a 7. You should start out with only 2 or 3 bets at the most. When I shoot, I will have a PL bet with full odds (Up to 5X) and 2 Come bets with odds if the PL point is 4,5,9,10. If my PL point is 6 or 8 I will usually place the 8. If I have not been hitting 6 and 8’s I will go ahead at get 2 come bets out instead of placing the 8.

2. You have way too many bets out there with single odds. You should always reduce the number of bets and increase the amount you have bet in odds. With full odds you reduce the house edge dramatically. Single odds reduce the edge but you are still giving .08 per 100. 2X is .06, 3-4-5X is .037, and 5X is .032.

The combination of too much exposure early and not playing higher odds is hurting your return.

My recommendation is to start with a PL and one Come bet with the highest you can take in odds for your bankroll. After a couple of hits add a come bet. Or if your bankroll can handle it, start with PL and 2 come bets. But have to increase yours odds to something higher than single odds. Remember, the odds bet has no house edge, so with any kind of edge in your shot you have a bet where you have the edge all of the time. Max that baby out first!

NFF

NofieldFive I was just giving a sample of one of my try out bets that I have done .I bet the 6 and 8 with one come bet most of the time .
What about the other bet I did ??? Any input on that one ?
It was a place bet on the 8 only with a pass line bet when I rolled only . I did make one point so it was not to costly . It was some thing that I wanted to try .
It was interesting that the number that I picked before going to table was not thrown for 42 rolls and 4 rollers . Not even thrown for a point number .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

I think a PL bet and one come bet with odds is better than the PL and place 8. You most likely would have hit your come bet multiple times. Whatever you were doing to the dice tend to repeat. You were not tossing the 8, obviously. Any other number would have been better than the 8 in that situation. If my point is 6 or 8 and I place the other one, I will make a come bet if the place has not hit in 10 or 12 rolls. I make a come bet and then bring the place bet down as odds when the come bet moves to a number.

NFF

That sounds like a plan .Will try the next trip .
My luck after I take the odds the place bet will roll . 🙂 🙂
I try lots of different things in practice but do not do these things in real casino .I am a low roller with small BR .But do stay on tables toooooo long .
I do not use 5 count . But at times I don’t bet for long periods of time . I also make only one bet on others unless I win during their roll .
If I am going to loose it may as well be on my roll .
Good Rolling. 🙂 🙂

Concisely put No Field Five. I pretty much bet the same way, but early in the roll, I don’t place the 6/8 if the point is 6 or 8. Two numbers is good starting out as you’re getting your feel. If your point is 6 for example and the come bet is 5, with full odds (3,4,5x) using $10 units, you’ve got $110 at risk. If you hit the 5, you’ll rack $70 and get your $40 odds are returned to you. If you seven out on the next roll, your come bet pays even money. You didn’t get hit hard on the low roll. IMO, smart betting and PATIENCE is an often neglected part of the game for a lot of shooters. Having a small edge is not a license to light up the casino at every session. Just remember the CFs you sometimes see out there hitting HWs and Yo’s and actually winning some money (before they stay too long and the variance catches up with them). My point is that the ebb and flow of the game affects us too. Bet smart. Good, tight post NFF.

Alamo

One last thing Finisher.

There are days when it seems every move you make is wrong. I have had the 8 Place Bet move to the come number as odds and then the next roll is 8. Does it bother me? Hell yes, especially if it has been happening a lot during that session. It bothers me a lot less now after years of playing with an advantage. Anything and everything can and will happen if you play enough.

The other thing I will suggest is to look at a come out 7 which takes your come bets as a "win". You might say, how can a come out 7 where I lose come bets be a win? When that happens, I get my odds back. The amount in odds that I get back are much more than the flat part of the come bet. I say to myself and sometimes to the dealer, look how much I won on that 7.

Billy the Kid taught me to have this mindset. It has helped me immensely.

Thanks Alamo and Finisher for making this thread very interesting!

NFF
ps To quote David M, "Shoot with passion or pass the dice!"

NFF hs said some very great things for everyone to remember. There isn’t too much to add to his thoughts because he is so right on.

SRR is the important thing, and betting properly is second to that. Come betting is the way to go. Remember the three things you need to make money at dice:
1. Learn the GTC Throw
2. Know what your edge is …. SRR
3. BET INTO THAT EDGE

I was really never a come bettor until I broke my ankle and had to shoot dice on one foot. I had a 72 hand roll on one foot with Goddess and a few other GTC’ers at the table and it was all come bets. Now, come bets is the way to go for me. If my roll extends I will then begin to also place bets on box numbers.

Thoughts on sets … it is never the set but it is the grip. To know what set might be better for you use Smart Craps or if you want to do it manually you need 5000 rolls with a particular set. Now it is best to not do those 5000 rolls all at one time with a set. The reason is as you throw 5000 tosses your throw will get better. So mix it up, but you need 5000 rolls to give you any kind of good analytical.

Great post!

Dominator

Just guessing, but I imagine I’ve got over 30K rolls since beginning this adventure. My thinking on the sets is that subtle changes occur in your grip over time…maybe due to minute changes as the reps grow, maybe due to a tune up, etc. I’ve adopted the same philosophy about sets that baseball pitchers have about their pitches. No argument with the 5000 throw idea, but I think before going to a casino on any given trip, you should be analyzing 3 – 5 sets that have shown to have an SRR edge over time. In my case, right now, over the last 1000 rolls, the V3 is getting a far better SRR than the HW and, believe it or not, the all 7 set is performing at a very high level, for box numbers, NOT sevens ( this is because my improving axis control is also bringing more double pitches than hardways into the mix). When you set for 7s and roll hardways, you are double pitching. See Sanford Wong’s comments about this in his book. Over time, I’ve experimented with a number of sets and have junked most of them. The proof, of course, will be in the pudding. I’m going to Vegas in late March, and it looks like the game plan will NOT call for the HW as the default set.

On come betting, I whole heartedly agree with Dom. In addition to taking advantage of what your dice are doing in the present moment, I think come bets allow you to make more money on fewer rolls. One of the reasons for that is the return of odds on come out 7s and made numbers before a 7 out. I you get 10 rolls and three hits and have 3 numbers ready to go on the come out and hit a come out 7, you’ll get a pile of odds returned to you. If you then 7 out, you probably have a 30 – 50% win vs risk in your rail and COULD walk if its a reasonable amount. This has happened to me a lot since I switched from a 6/8 spread strategy. I would just as soon win a lot of money a little at a time as win a bunch at once after losing a bunch before. With come betting, once you get a decent win in the rack, you can start to spread the board and convert naturals into equivalent place bets, so that you are now ahead with all of your bets staying on the board with a come out 7. Then, a few repeaters are just extra money in the rail until you 7 out and go to breakfast or dinner or the whore house or wherever you go to relax between sessions. : )

Keep On Rollin’

Alamo

And as NFF said, with those comebets and the 7 does show on the comeout, you get the odds back, and sometimes it is a HUGE help with the win!

Dominator