Tex ,I will only answer the question of what are these dice setting web sites trying to tell/sell you. In my humble opinion they are selling bull s**t. As to your other questions it will take someone with a more advanced math back ground than me to answer that. I look forward to other responses—Skinny where are you when we need you!!!

Doc

Doc –

I get the bogus website stuff, but I still wonder what they ( several of them mention the ‘x’ ways to make a 7 off a set ) mean by the number of ways to make a seven from a set. I can manipulate the dice on my table top and find some ways, of course. It may well be that thousands of rolls with a set is the only way to really tell what it does. If you are controlling the dice, I suspect some sets will put you above random on SRR, e.g., a 5.4 or some such thing using a hybrid set. This discussion is more philosophical maybe than scientific.

And…to your point regarding where is Skinny, I’d say that only old coots like us are up at 6:15am posting craps questions to the listserver! Hope you’re getting enough sleep…

Alamo

The folks on those other websites are referring to how many "7" combinations appear when you keep both dice on axis.
With the hardway set there are 4 combinations that can be a 7. Those combinations being 4-3, 3-4, 5-2, or 2-5. Not a 1 or 6 showing. A double pitch with the Hardway set will always result in a seven.

With one of the "7 Avoidance sets", ie. 2V or 3V, there are only 2 combinations of dice to show a seven. With the 3V it would be 4-3 or 3-4. With the 2V it would be 5-2 or 2-5. A Double Pitch with 3V will be a 4-3, 3-4, 2-1 or a 6-5. A Double Pitch with the 2V will be 5-2, 2-5, 4-1, or 6-3. Also the other variation of the 2V will result in 5-2, 2-5, 3-1, or 4-6.

The guys on the other sites are proponents of spinning the hell out of the shot in order to keep them on axis. That is why they prefer those particular sets over the hardway sets.

We (GTC Instruction Staff) believe that spinning the dice 5 or 6 revolutions add way too much energy to the shot. The energy is dissipated into the table resulting in a wild bounce, or into the pyramids. Both are bad.

Now, if you have developed your shot to a point that it is on axis the vast majority of the time them the "7 Avoidance Sets" will provide protection from a double pitch. But, without a huge on axis percentage you are better off using the HW set so that a single dice off axis will not result in a 7.

Most of us on the instruction staff use the HW set most of the time. I will switch to one of the other ones if my shots are staying on axis and I want to hit the 4,10, 6 or 8.

NFF

We base everything on the dice staying on axis. I agree with this but only so far. Once the dice hit the table and bounce of the wall, all on axis reference is gone. Granted there on times when the dice do stay on axis during the landing and bounce off the wall but the majority of the time the dice not stay on axis. This is based on watching the dice react in slow motion from various shooters and sources. As said in class:
"the dice can be controlled until the landing" So all this on axis analysis is entertaining but without a high level of confidence. Luck and how the dice land on any given day are factors in a successful day. I am not being negative just the engineering side me would expect much better results if the dice did stay on axis during the whole shot.

I have accepted the amount of randomness at the end of the shot and enjoy trying to beat it with the techniques taught at GTC.

I look forward to taking another class in March and discussing the physics / anaylsis of the shot with the instructors.

I think you are absolutely right about that. I have come to rely on Smart Craps to tell me the SRR over a long series of rolls (thousands). If your SRR is north of 6 after 5 or 10K worth of rolls, you know you have an advantage. I would submit that the advantage is constantly variable. I keep going back to an empirical observation from my own experience as proof that dice control works. I started playing craps in 1982 and continued until I took the GTC course in 2009 or 10 or some such time. NEVER, EVER, did I personally hold the dice for more than maybe 10 or 15 rolls in all the years I played…and I was a grinder, playing the best odds and hoping to catch a wave by staying in the game until a hot hand came along. Rarely did a hot hand from a single shooter win the table a lot of money. Most big wins came from tables that for a while carried a collective SRR above random. Of course, back then, I had no idea what an SRR was. Since GTC, I personally have had countless rolls of 20+, dozens over 30 and one or two over 40. I have seen other GTC people have similar hot hands. The point is that I had NEVER had rolls like that nor seen them as a random roller. And, I roll a fair number of those kinds of rolls in practice, so dice control works…empirically.

My girlfriend originally laid another thought on me. Every players grip, alignment, release, loft etc., affect the dice differently. My throw will never be like yours and vice versa, even though we may have similar SRR numbers. That is why I am experimenting with different sets of the dice. If I find one of them that gives me an SRR of 10 over 5000 rolls, guess what? I’m using that one. I think a 5000 roll sample will be proof that my throw gets good results with the dice starting with a certain set. I have come to realize that just blindly staying with the HW because somebody said to is no different than doing anything else on blind faith unsupported by facts. The facts are these: Your SRR calculated by Smart Craps and your propensity to hit certain numbers more than others over time will not be a lie or a bullshit story. SRR is extremely dynamic though and should only be a thumb in the wind for you, in my opinion. If you have a 36 roll hand with no 7s showing, followed by 5 quick 7 outs, which segment along that spectrum is your real SRR?. The 36 roll hand is a strong indication that you are controlling the dice when luck and skill join hands. Again, its just my opinion, but if you have a long sample of rolls showing your SRR to be north of 6, you are influencing the dice positively. Propensity to hit certain numbers more than others is also a thumb in the wind. Everyone (unless I am shown otherwise) will hit more 6s and 8s than any other number. But, a given shooter will also hit more of one of those numbers than the other. So if you hit the 6 20% more than you hit the 8, cover the 6 first in your spread betting, for example. If the 5 is hotter than the 9, cover it after you get the 6 and 8 hit etc. Not trying to tell anyone how to play, of course, but knowledge is power. I track my hardways too, and I know that I hit a HW using the HW set close to 1 in 10 times, so if I’m ahead in the rail, I might get crazy and throw a 4 # HW bet out there if I’ve rolled 6 or 8 times without seeing one. Statistically, I know that in my game, it has a good chance of showing. The past isn’t the present, but it is helpful to know what you are capable of vs playing blindly.

Finally, the shot is only part of the plan. If you play stupid, you’re going to lose. That ground is covered in the class and elsewhere, so I’m not going near the subject here.

Appreciate the dialog. Sorry about the length of my posts. I’d still appreciate thoughts on data collection methods that are floating around out there.

Peace my brothers and sisters and happy hunting.

Alamo

Great post, Tex! Good food for thought. 😎

Alamo: I really enjoyed your thoughts on this subject and my practice sessions match up with your results as well. I keep looking and watching intently. I just appreciate your insights. DoughBoy

Thanks. I am happy that I’m not ticking anybody off, for starters. What I’ve written just kind of embodies my philosophical approach to the game.

Next thing up for me is learning to be comfortable with more money on the table.

Anybody got any thoughts or tips on how to make the transition to green chips? I know some of this has been discussed before, but I’m sure I don’t know how to find it in the data. Once, and I think Griz was there, I went up on 3 numbers employing the Big Skinny. $10 PL with 3x, 4x 5x. Hit a 10 right out of the box, then 7 out and then nothing for several hands. The damage was immense in my mind compared to what it is when you’re on a $5 table with double odds or at worst a couple of 6/8 bets with $25 odds. I can afford to play with more and would be more profitable, but I’m leery of my own mind. Almost like you feel the first time you get in a really big game or talk to a giant audience, or something.

AlamoTx

I can only give you my two cents. Through betting using green chips and adjusting to the ebb and flow that the game takes, I have been making progress. From a philosophical point for me it is a matter of containment which is more of a mental exercise. How do I contain winning and more importantly, how do I contain losing? We know from the math that there will be more losing than winning sessions. This makes the mental part of the game so much bigger. For me toning down my reaction to losing takes a lot of practice. Turning off the exagerated sense of losing and the actual mental downturn is a challenge. Staying present to oneself may sound like a little cliche but for me that’s what it is about. I have the 401g for a bigger game but I don’t have the mental game strong enough yet and my shot isn’t where it needs to be. Nonetheless I have played the quarters on my last trip and did very well. I work very hard for my money so it isn’t like the funny money you see out here in Silicon Valley. I have always taken losing hard and now the challenge is in front of me. It’s not easy being easy. This game is sure humbling. DoughBoy

Well…’DoughBoy’ is the right name to have for a big bankroll!

I’ve been playing with green chips in practice and have been able to watch the ebb and flow you referred to. And, when the W’s come, the results can be massive. One of the things I’ve learned is that when I first go into the casino environment, I do not need to immediately load up. Personally, I need a little time in the game so the adrenaline can tone down a bit. Once that happens, I get to a place where I can say ‘What the heck? Let’s put some money on the lay-out’. Griz posted about a trip we teamed on about a month ago where we went to the table, tip toed into the game, got shut down, got pissed and went to breakfast to cowboy up. We came back and put the real money on the table and walked with some nice gains.

Dominator is always talking about the mental part of this game being the most important, and I agree with that 100%. Heading to Shreveport in about 10 days, and right now the plan is to go with green chips. My attitude and confidence will have to be there for that. If it’s not, I have no problem backing off a bit. I do not have any T Shirts with ‘Macho’ written across the front. This game is supposed to be fun, first and foremost. If too much money on the layout erases the fun, what’s the point? On the other hand, once you go in big, you kind of need to stay big, because you can’t go in with green chips and lose, say $500 on 6 short hands, and then drop down to $5 chips with double odds and hope to regain the lost dinero. Just my opinion, but if you’re gonna run from the fight, don’t start it in the first place! You have to control your losses but you have to do that in the context of an overall game plan. Warm up. Check confidence and comfort level. Then execute the casino game plan for that particular trip.

I customarily will take no more than 3 personal turns with the dice in any one session. I walk from the table if all 3 sessions suck. If I have a modest roll at some point, first, second, third attempt, and win an amount that is 50% or more of the risk amount I have on the layout, I’ll consider walking then too. So, if I am putting out $60 on 3 numbers for example ($180 at risk), and I seven out with a profit of $90 +, I’ll head for the coffee shop or a break of some sort. I also count my rolls, and if I get over 15 rolls in one of the three attempts, I usually will quit regardless of win or loss. The reason for that has to do with my own data on how often I can expect to get over 10 rolls in a given number of tries. Even if I’m behind, a 15 roll hand will either put me up or seriously dent the deficit. Experience has told me that I am rarely going to put 15+ hands back to back. On the other hand, if I win big, I’ll often set aside a piece of that to use for another couple of runs at them at lower betting levels. Just might augment your winnings a bit, and you can keep stashing and playing with the residual. IMO, smart betting is part of the mental game that can make all the difference. Digression again.

Thanks for the post.

Alamo

Alamo; i do appreciate you elaborating. I agree with you. Once you’re in big, you kind of have to stick with the game plan. I do the same. It takes me some time to warm up and now I can see pretty well if the dice look good. If I’m lucky to boot, then I have something. I also do not have any problem playing the 5 dollar table with my son-in-law and daughter and having one great fun time. I just love the hooting and holleriing no matter what the stakes. I also need time for my adrenaline to disappear. I also take a nap when I first arrive. I am a baker so early mornings are my strength and late nights are for sleeping. I do appreciate you sharing your approach. I’m in Vegas in another 10 days. I do enjoy this game of ours. DoughBoy

When you say you experiment with the dice sets what do you mean?

Have you taken the 3 v throw a thousand shots with the 4s on top and the 5 1 facing then 4s on top with the1 5 facing thrown another set with the 4s on top 2 6 facing then 4s on top 6 2 facing thrown another set with the 3s on top and the 5 1 then the 3s on top and the 1 5 then the 51 on top with the 4s facing then the 1 5 on top with the 4 facing then the 6 2 on top with the 4s facing the 2 6 on top with the 4s facing 1 5 on top 3s facing 5 1 on top 3s facing 6 2 on top 4s facing 2 6 on top 4s facing this is my idea of experimenting with the sets.

This is a truly interesting way of proving out consistency, what I mean by that is if you have the 3s on top and the 5 1 facing and you find that you throw more and you throw more 3 1s with the set this way, when you move it to the 1 5 facing you should find that you throw more 3 2 and 5 3s just by one simple twist if you shot is consistent.

just food for thought deep thought.

Shortly I shall have 90,000 documented practice rolls. Over this time I have used the 3V and 2V for the majority of these rolls. I know which numbers I tend to throw from each set and try to bet to those numbers. About 12% of my hits are hardways and about half are one dice off axis. My hands over 10 vary from 25.5% to 27+%. My long term SRR is 8.3 but I track SRR by the month and by every 6000 rolls. December my SRR was 9.3 and the long term is about 8.1 in 3720 rolls. I only have a Mac computer so all calculations are by hand. I throw a 7’s set on the comeout and sometimes the hardways to hit the passline point. I roll a 7 on the comeout around 47% of the time and generally hop them and press if one comes. I have done five 7’s in a row numerous times in the casino but not at home.

Chasing the point with the set is not recommended here but it seems to work for me.

As of late I have been following another site with interest in the don’t. I have been playing their way with a twist and it has paid steady money in practice and I just tried it for the first time in a casino with profitable results. I am determined to play it when I am alone at the table so I get the dice back. The gentleman writing about his exploits has a much larger bankroll than I so that is why I added the twist and that has worked very well for me.

I, like Sharpshooter, believe that you must have at least 5000 rolls on any experiment to be statistically viable. With my 90,000 rolls and my SRR at 8+ I think that that is a very good indication that I do indeed control the dice a little. Another knowledgeable gentleman said that the way I count my numbers is probably giving me a lower SRR than I am actually throwing. I guess that is the conservative in me.

Like DoughBoy I am not betting enough on myself particularly when I am throwing well. I am still trying to overcome that. That is my two cents.

I am trying to stay up to see the northern lights tonight hoping that happens as it does not happen very often in Colorado.

OneMoonCircles

Bman…I get your point. I have contemplated the fact that there are virtually an endless number of combinations in which the dice can be set. I don’t think I’ll live long enough to put all of them through the paces for 5000 rolls! I’m just experimenting with the more popular versions. Even if you normally set the HW with the 6 to your left, if you turn it around with the 6 to your right, you’ll get a whole different sample. Any set that I use begins with the 5s on top and is then rotated to make the set I’m looking for. For the HW, I use the 5s on top because I can glance at my thumb position during the alignment to be sure I’m in the center of the rectangle formed by the 4s. Of course that trick goes out the window with something like the V2, where I rotate the left 5 toward me so the 6/4 is showing on the thumb side.

OneMoonCircles…all I can say is that an SRR of 8 over 90K rolls is impressive. I would say you are more than controlling the dice. You have a significant advantage over every box number. I’m curious as to how you decided on the V3 and V2 initially. Even though I have better SRR numbers with a V3, I’m afraid to use it much in live play…superstition? For some reason, the V2 does not work as well with my throw. Oddly, one of the better sets for me (dice facing you on a table) has the 6 on the left and 3 on the right so that 5/4 is facing you. It’s a 5s and 9s set, but it has a nice SRR for me. I don’t use it in live play though. Too much indoctrination by the GTC gurus?

I don’t like Come out 7 sets for me just because, superstitiously, I don’t want to see the evil bitch for any reason. Funny huh? And I say I’m not superstitious about most things in craps. Have you ever tested your SRR using the 7 set for 5000 rolls? You should have about a 2!

I appreciate the 5000 roll sample suggestion. It sounds reasonable that something steady would show over that many rolls even given the ebb and flow of practice results.

Next outing, I’m going to plan on dipping into the table with maybe an $18 6 & 8, or even a $30 or maybe a 3x odds Big Skinny. No immediate pressing. Just get in the game. If the roll gets going, you can make some money from there. After that, I will swallow hard and go into the big boy pool.

Good dialog people

Alamo

Great information you guys. I continue to learn and it makes me love the game even more. I am still going with the HW set right now and playing the Big Skinny. I will eventually spread out a little (maybe). Like all things, I tend to keep it simple and automatic in the casino. I am very impressed with the high SRR and I will keep working at it. Thanks to all that shared. DoughBoy

Sent you an E-mail. I think you are reading in my journal. Great post. Serious material. A great deal of time, and effort to compile. Should be "esq." after your name. 😉 Playing, just a little out of the box, has been very profitable this year. Focused thinking has it’s rewards.

Shoot with passion…."..without mental reservation, or secret evasion of mind." (nail ’em)
DavidM

Might want to send it again. Don’t think I got it. alamotx47@gmail.com?

Alamo