Craps

Point Wins

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What is the average roll for a win ?
Or how many rolls should you be looking at till you make a point .
Is it any different on which number is the point or are the odds the same ?
It seems that I can average 2 to 3 PWs in the first 30 rolls but after that they come father apart .
One session I rolled31 rolls and had 1 PW on the other end I HAD A 130 roll with 14 PWs .
Is one for every 10 rolls good or bad ?
Thanks for your in put .
Good Rolling. 😀 😀


Replies:

Posted by: Dr Crapology on November 28, 2013, 12:59 pm

Interesting query. For starters I am mostly a come better with some place bets on the 6 and 8. I know that I have had rolls of 6 or 8 and made money as I kept rolling the same coupe of numbers—but as you might guess I usually don’t win on a roll that short.

On the other hand, I have had rolls n the high teens where I did not make money or only a few dollars. I would have a come out 7 and a craps number or 2 two, finally set a point, make the point, have an 11, set a new point and using come bets set a couple of other numbers, then make my point again and here come 7 with all the come coming down. Now I set a 3rd point and using come bets go to up on several numbers with an 11 and a crap number and now have money on more numbers that I have wins in the rack when the 7 out occurs. The point is that sometimes the timing of the numbers you hit can have a big impact on how you do–win or lose. You get the picture.

Don’t misunderstand me I did not lose much money as I might have 4 or 5 numbers covered with 2 or 3 wins in the rack but I did lose money just not much. The dice were looking petty good (those darn craps to occur to the best of the best), I simply did not have many repeaters–yet–and when I did finally sevened out I was down a little. It happens with the best dice controllers.

So to answer your questions, in my humble opinion there is no real answer. Your answer is your wins and/or losses can be all over the place. Hope that will help.

Doc

Posted by: Skinny on November 28, 2013, 6:35 pm

"Finisher" wrote: What is the average roll for a win ?
Or how many rolls should you be looking at till you make a point .

I can help you with your first question but I do not know the answer to the second mostly because I am not looking for point winners. I always use the hardway set and The Big Skinny (TBS) for betting. Thus I am predominately a come bettor, looking for repeat numbers. In fact I don’t want to make my point too often because point winners change the flow of the game. It is easier for me to get into a zone if I keep rolling without making my point. I only want to make the point if I have been rolling for awhile and want to take a short break.

Regarding the average roll for a win, I find it usually takes a double digit roll for me to make a profit on the roll. Once I get to a 12 roll, I often have enough winners to guarantee a win on the roll. The way I play TBS it takes 2 hits to cover what I have on 3 numbers and 4 hits to cover the money I would have on the table if I had all 6 numbers. But I usually do not have all 6 numbers covered early so with 2 or 3 hits I can frequently make or lose only a small amount of money if the roll does not extend too long.

Here are 2 posts that I have referred to several times in the past. I am repeating them here for new members who may not have seen them and as a refresher for those who have seen them before. I think together they are helpful in answering the essence of your question.

Make your money on the 10+ to 20+ rolls

How much should I be winning at the tables?

Posted by: OneMoonCircles on December 1, 2013, 6:32 pm

Thank you for re-posting Skinny. I re-read both of the older articles and then analyzed my situation. I see that frequently I achieve 4x my initial bet but come home down because I keep playing. This makes me ponder whether I should come home and build my 401G slowly or play on. Sometimes I make 10 or 20 times my initial bet but never come home down from those as I usually leave the casino. If I profit 6x my initial bet I can always come home up as I refuse to give it all back.

Lately I have had wild swings in terms of loss or win. I have won BIG in relation to my initial bets then go into a slump for weeks or even months and give most of it back then will win big again and the scenario repeats. The long slumps seem to be break even or very small wins and losses. Overall in nearly 6 years of advantage play I am pretty close to being even. I am working very hard to change that to being ahead.

Good rolling everyone!

OneMoonCircles

Posted by: Skinny on December 2, 2013, 1:25 am

OMC,

I am happy to hear my post gave you a chance to reflect on your play. It is good to analyze your betting pattern, wins, losses, amount of play and experience at the tables from time to time to improve your game. Those components of your game are just as important as your throw. You develop your throw and practice so that you can get a mathematical advantage over the casino. But if your betting and play is not consistent with that advantage you will not be able to come out a winner.

I get the impression from your post you may be playing too long at the tables. Remember you should only throw when you are at your best both physically and mentally. If you stay too long, fatigue will set in (even if you do not feel it at the table) and you will not be able to execute your best shot.

Notice in that one article I wrote about my experience during a class week end. I was at the casino for a week, although a good part of that time I was busy with the class. Still I had at least 3 or 4 days where I could play at the tables. But I knew I was not at my best at all times because of the rigors of the set up, meet and greet and teaching during class. I only played a total of 7 sessions over the entire week, one session lasting only 15 minutes where I only took 1 turn with the dice. The other sessions were limited in play as well. I took 4 turns or less with the dice at each of the other 6 sessions.

It takes a lot of discipline to go to the trouble of going to a casino and then limiting your time at the table to sessions of about 1 hour or so in length (3 or 4 turns with the dice). You need time to rest in between sessions to recharge your body and mind. So playing a total of 3 sessions in a day is about the limit if your are going to be fresh when you play. But that is what it takes if you want to play at your best and have the best opportunity to come out a winner.

You seem to imply that you get ahead and then stay too long and give most of it back. So I wrote the above as a reminder and perhaps a caution to what may be limiting your win amount.

One last point. It may just be a matter of semantics but I want to be sure we are on the same page. You said you often achieve 4X your initial bet. But in my article I am talking about your initial amount at risk. By initial amount at risk, I mean the total amount you are willing to wager on a player before you win a single bet. You may not put that all out on your first bet, but may build up to it over a few throws. But there is a point at which you do not put more money on the table until you win some wagers. After you start winning on a shooter you may put some of the future wins on the table by pressing or spreading out. But the initial amount at risk is the most you can lose on any single shooter if you are wagering properly.

For example, let’s say you are a come bettor at a 3-4-5X odds table who wants to get up on 3 numbers with max odds as your initial amount a risk. Your initial bet is a $5 pass line bet with max odds. The shooter establishes 6 as his point. You have a $5 pass with $25 odds and put out a $5 come bet. The shooter throws a 4, you put up $15 in odds and another $5 come bet. The shooter throws a 9, you put up $20 in odds and hold there until the shooter hits one of your numbers. Your initial amount at risk is $75. That is the most you can lose on this shooter because you will not put more money on the table until you start to collect on one of your numbers. After you start taking in some winners you will only put up money from future winners so as not to take more money out of your rails. That way you can never lose more than your initial amount at risk on the shooter. A 4X win on this session would be a win of $300. Your initial bet was $30 but after 3 rolls you got to your initial amount at risk of $75 on 3 numbers. You should be looking at your win/loss in relation to the initial amount at risk.

As I said, it may only be semantics because I am using a mathematical term. I just wanted to be sure you understood the gist of what I mean by 4X the initial amount at risk.

Posted by: SevenTimesSeven on December 5, 2013, 4:38 pm

Skinny,
You have come through as you always have, informative and precise, this time on
the definition of the initial amount at risk vs the initial bet.
Too many times we on this site have used ambiguous terms and the questions and
answers are so meaningless and misleading.
Thanks again and again, Skinny.

Posted by: OneMoonCircles on December 6, 2013, 7:35 am

Yes Skinny we are on the same page. It is just a case of semantics. I am having a problem with the grip and I’ll be damned if I can figure it out. I will just keep trying. Thanks again.

OMC

Posted by: SevenTimesSeven on December 6, 2013, 5:33 pm

"OneMoonCircles" wrote: Yes Skinny we are on the same page. It is just a case of semantics. I am having a problem with the grip and I’ll be damned if I can figure it out. I will just keep trying. Thanks again.

OMC

So many, many, many times we hear that you must practice your grip.
What does that mean?
If your grip is bad to start with, you’ll be getting it into muscle-memory.
What is a good grip?

Looking down on your fingers, how does that do it?
Everyone’s fingers are of different shapes.

Practicing your grip while sitting down cannot be the same as when your
eyes are directecly above as they will be at the table.
And the finger arrangement and relative orientation betwee the fingers
would be different too, would it not be?

Any inputs to this question?

Posted by: Timmer on December 9, 2013, 1:49 pm

="SevenTimesSeven So many, many, many times we hear that you must practice your grip.
What does that mean? If your grip is bad to start with, you’ll be getting it into muscle-memory. What is a good grip?
Looking down on your fingers, how does that do it? Everyone’s fingers are of different shapes.
Practicing your grip while sitting down cannot be the same as when your eyes are directecly above as they will be at the table.
And the finger arrangement and relative orientation betwee the fingers would be different too, would it not be?
Any inputs to this question?

SevenTimesSeven,

Great questions!

One way of building a correct or "good" grip into muscle memory is to practice with the "Gripper" training aid.

There are several gripper drills taught by Dominator in class lectures, by the Instructors at their practice tables or stations, or shared by the Mentors to the students in their mentoring groups. Here’s an overview of some gripper practice drills:

The drills include how to achieve proper front finger alignment; double-checking with the sraight-sixes set; how to achieve proper thumb alignment; double-checking with the five-pips facing you; how to achieve and maintain a "soft" grip on the dice; double-checking for a "soft" grip and building the proper amount of tension into the grip using the "dice drop" technique.

A nice thing about the Gripper is that you don’t have to be at your table or station to practice the drills. Try keeping one on your coffee table to practice your grip during television commercials.

Gripper training aids can be purchased here: http://www.gamblersoutpost.com/?p=623&p … ch+Gripper

There are other ways to practice and check your grip besides the Gripper drills I’ve mentioned. For example, skin adhesion and equal dice-to-dice finger/thumb contact is critically important and can be evaluated (and subsequently corrected) by watching the dice in the air. Instructors will often adjust and refine grips based on what they are seeing after the dice are thrown, to compensate for different hand/finger/thumb shapes and sizes.

Visual evaluation is obviously a large part of the Elite Video Analysis (EVA). Daryl No-Field-Five and Billy the Kid use their experience and "trained eyes" to see and correct flaws originating from the grip that may seem minor or inconsequential to some. But the fact is, seemingly "minor" corrections have a huge impact on achieving greater control and consistency with the dice.

Little things matter with this "thing of ours…"

Thanks for the questions and post.

😎 😎 😎