http://www.rgtonline.com/article/odds-o … ame=Gaming
By Jerry Stickman
Stickman,
What are the odds of making a fire bet? I made the four points and have yet to see a five point hit. The Mohegan Sun plays the fire bet, and most of the time the majority of players do place a dollar or more. Thanks for your info.
Alfred M.
Hi Alfred,
The fire bet has been available in different venues for a few years now. To bet the fire bet the player must bet $1 to $5 before the first roll of a new shooter. This is true even if the new shooters first roll is not a point number. To win a fire bet in most casinos the shooter must set and make at least four different point numbers. Setting and making the same point (for example an 8) only counts as one point for the fire bet.
The most common pay table – and the pay table at the Mohegan Sun, I believe – pays 25-for-1 for four different points, 250-for-1 for five different points and 1,000-for-1 for making all six different point numbers. This may sound like a lot of money, but it is rare to collect on the fire bet. The fire bet has a large (make that enormous) house edge. Depending on the pay schedule it ranges from 20 to 25 percent.
So what are the actual odds of winning the fire bet? Let’s take a look.
• About 59 percent of the time zero points will be made.
• About 26 percent of the time only one point will be made.
• About 10 percent of the time two points will be made.
In order to collect anything with the fire bet the shooter needs to make twice this number of points and already 95.6 percent of the total results are accounted for. Let’s continue.
• About three and one-third percent of the time three points will be made – taking us to 98.94 percent of all results.
• Only about 0.88 percent of the time will a shooter make four different points. Looking at it another way, only once in about 113 attempts will a shooter make four different points and for this accomplishment fire bet participants are paid a whopping 25-for-1.
•Continuing, about 0.16 percent of the time will a shooter complete five different points. This works out to once in every about 610 attempts that fire bet players will win 250-for-1.
•And finally, only about 0.016 percent of the time will a shooter complete all six different points. An event that happens about once every 6,156 times is paid by the casino at a rate of 1,000-for-1. No wonder the casinos love this bet.
Many gamblers and even some advantage players think it is a fun and okay (maybe even good) bet to make – and they could possibly be right. No other bet at the craps table pays such a large return and if the amount allocated to the fire bet is a very small fraction of the total bet spread the 20 percent house edge may not even be noticed. Heck, I have even been tempted and tossed a dollar or two on the fire bet along the way. Just keep in mind the incredible odds against completing this six-number sequence.
May all your wins be swift and large and all your losses slow and tiny.
Jerry “Stickman”
Replies:
Posted by: Finisher on September 1, 2013, 7:08 pm
Some places let you bet to 10.00 .
Good Rolling. 😀 😀
Good Rolling. 😀 😀
Posted by: Finisher on September 3, 2013, 4:50 pm
I don’t know if that would draw heat to you or not ? So say you bet the fire even for the max. and the roller makes one point you should be ahead as long as you do not make a lot of other bets .Like you said you have a 26% chance of getting your money back .If you put odds on you would be ahead IF that first point was made .
It would be interesting what the dealers would think ?
Good Rolling. 😀 😀
Posted by: Skinny on September 3, 2013, 6:35 pm
That is a gambler’s way of thinking. If I win one so-so bet, I can use the winnings to make another terrible bet and I will not be behind. By the way, you actually have a 49.29% chance of winning a pass line wager on a cf’er. 26% is the probability that the cf’er only makes 1 point. You have to add up all the other ways for him to make more than one point. Even if you take your pass line bet down after the first point is made, you still would have won the bet if he makes 2 or more points as well. Adding up all the other number of points he could make and the possibility of winning with a 7 or 11 on the come out gives him a 49.29% chance of winning the first pass line bet.
The best bet on a cf’er is no bet at all. The next best bet is a pass OR don’t pass bet (not both) for the table minimum. All other bets on a cf’er are losing bets over the long haul.
"Finisher" wrote: Stickman Just a thought if you are worried about that 1.00 or 5.00 or 1o.oo on the fire and it is on a cfer
You should be worried about every single $1 you wager. If it is not a good wager you should not make it.
As GTC says, if the casino is worried about collecting a $1 commission on the buy bet, you should be worried about every $1 you wager that is not an advantage wager. The casino is worth millions of dollars and they are concerned about every $1 that is owed to them. You determine how your net worth stacks up against the casino and decide if you should be concerned about how those high house edge $1 or $5 wagers add up over time.
And please, don’t anyone compare a $1 wager to a $1 tip to the cocktail waitress because they are not the same thing. Money you use for gambling is separate and apart from all other money and needs to be treated with care if you wish to be an advantage player.
The fire bet is one of the highest house edge bets on the craps table. Making that bet on a cf’er is never a good wager. It does not matter how you got the money to make the wager.
Posted by: Finisher on September 3, 2013, 7:33 pm
Is that so high because of the 7 and 11 wins ?
Just think if this was done by more then half of the players on table the game would go real fast. Or if there were only 2 players on table .The shooter would have bets up and after the first point his bets would be the only ones to be paid till the fire was hit .So the game would move fast .
I have never done this . It was just a thought.I vary seldom bet on cfers any more so the fire part is not a bet that I make on other players .
Good Rolling.
Posted by: Skinny on September 4, 2013, 6:03 am
"Finisher" wrote: Skinny I got the 26% from this post not sure you are on same track … If you have a 49 % chance to win that first point bet it is better then I thought.
Is that so high because of the 7 and 11 wins ?
Part of the 49% is due to the 7 and 11 wins on the come out but most of it comes from the shooter making one OR MORE points.
That 26% is for making exactly one point and no more. If the shooter makes more than one point you still win your first pass line bet. Go back and reread what Stickman wrote and you will see he also said there is a 59% chance that no points are made. That means there is a 41% chance that a shooter will make one or more points. When you add in the way for a shooter to make 2 points, 3 points, 4 points, etc. it adds up to a 41% chance that a shooter will make 1 or more points. This percentage only takes into account making at least 1 point. It does not account for winning your pass line bet with a 7/11 or losing it with a 2/3/12 on the come out roll.
When you add in the 7 and 11 on the come out that 41% goes up to a 49.2929% chance of winning your first bet on the pass line.
Conversely you have a 50.7071% chance of losing your first bet on the pass line. The difference 50.7071% – 49.2929% = 1.41% which is the house edge on the pass line.
Posted by: Finisher on September 4, 2013, 4:19 pm
Good Rolling. 😀 😀
