Hi Alamo:
I am not sure what you mean by smaller roll sets. Could you post exactly the Smart Craps message says?

You need to pass one of the three SC test to allow the program to recommend an optimal dice set. These sets will be optimal for your to hit certain box numbers and it will also give you an all sevens come out set based on your roll sample size. Dice sets can change as more data is added and analyzed over time.

If any students are coming to the class in Vegas and have Smart Craps questions, bring your laptop to the open house Friday and I can assist with an aspects of the program.

It is just suggesting to me that I should use a smaller sample. All I’m trying to do really is to see where my SRR is over a large sample in a relatively short time frame.

I’ve never passed all three tests, but I’ve gotten two of them before…however, I did it in a small number of rolls, like 100 or so, but that’s been a while back, so I don’t really recall the details. Frankly, I don’t pay much attention to Smart Craps other than to use it to log rolls and check my SRR from time to time. I’ve got an advantage, so I figure most of the time, a solid betting strategy will hit the repeaters anyway. Was just curious, but from your post, it sounds like soon, I’ll be getting into the NASA stuff : )…..which I don’t have time for.

BTW, why would I want an all 7 set. I’m kind of like Doc. Never set for it and don’t want to see it.
Alamo

I always throw in sets of 36. Then I will close out the set and start a new set of 36 if I want to throw longer. And repeat if I want to throw more.
I have never had any problem with smart craps. I picked 36 rolls because before I had smart craps, it was an easy way for me to see the results of my throws compared to a random result. Every 36 rolls allows me an instant comparison to random.

When I use smart craps it tells me to do more rolls to pass . So far have not done that even when I just entered a roll of 71 with no 7s till I seven-ed out . Thought that it would get me to pass at least one but did not . Even tho it was my best in practice so far.
When entering rolls I look to see if I pass and see that some times I do pass but by the end of roll I have not passed.

I think I need a class on how to use it . 😀 😀
Just when I think that this roll will pass it starts going the other way. Just so close but not there yet.
Good Rolling. 😀 😀

A while back, I think Frank S posted something about the SRR not being the end all – be all, and I agree. It just tells you in a single snapshot how you’re doing. I think the words he used were that your SRR is always ‘dynamic’ meaning it changes constantly. So Smart Craps can only tell you about a particular day in time. Like Finisher was alluding to, you can have an SRR of 10 over 100 rolls and then roll a set where you roll 10 7’s in the next 20 rolls and suddenly your SRR is 6 over 120 rolls instead of 10….random. Which is the correct result to tell you what your skill set is? I can’t tell you how many times I’ve rolled 2 or 3 sevens at the start of a hand and then reel off 25 rolls with a come out seven in the middle and a seven to finish the roll. You probably aren’t going to see a random roller have that kind of a roll very often. We avoid the seven more than random would dictate. Some hands we avoid it better; others we suck.

So, here’s to more avoidance and less sucking! Frankly, I don’t think Smart Craps helps much. Just my opinion, but it’s fun to log your rolls once in a while.

Alamo

I certainly agree with you about SRR as a metric. It is most definitely a dynamic measure and you need thousands of rolls for it to be of much value statistically.

But with regards to Smart Craps, I think it is a useful way to measure your ability that is empirical rather than conjectural. Math commands the casino industry and the game of craps in particular. Smart Craps provides one with the capacity to determine ones ability based on math, specifically with regards to 3 elements of controlled shooting. (Yes, Smart Craps provides more than that as well but I wanted to focus on those 3 elements here)

Pro Test 1 measures your on-axis proficiency.
Pro Test 2 measures your primary hit (hardway) proficiency.
Pro Test 3 measures your proficiency in avoiding double pitches.

Passing any Pro Test means you have performed at a level for the task that less than 99.5% random rollers could accomplish.

In other words, there is only a 0.5% chance that passing the test was a random occurrence.

Mathematically, when you pass a Pro Test you have performed a proficiency at 3 or more standard deviations from the mean, the three-sigma rule. One does not need Smart Craps to do these calculations. I once wrote a post where I gave the formulas and explained how one could do the calculations. So I am not trying to promote Smart Craps.

I am saying that it is important to be able to use scientific methods to measure ones ability so that you are armed with the type of information the casinos use against us. An advantage player needs every edge possible to wage war against the well armed giants we are trying to overcome.

Hi Alamo:
The all sevens set is nice for when you are not come betting and you are coming out. I use it often since I like place betting over come bets while I am rolling. The only problem is not to knock out your buddies if they are come betting on your roll. I killed Doc one roll not realizing he was come betting and felt bad about it ever since.

Didn’t mean to imply that Smart Craps is useless, and I can’t argue a thing about the math. I have passed one or two of the tests several times, but never all three, so I’m pretty confident that I’m controlling the dice…at least on the rolls where I passed…the dynamic nature of this game means that you may or may not be performing well in a casino on any given day, and while you’re stinking up the joint or rolling like a train, you could care less whether you’re doing it with a 6.5 SRR or a 16.5 SRR ! The reason I was using 1000 rolls in my most recent sample was for just the reason you stated. Over a large number of rolls, my SRR result will be an indicator of dice control and will be pretty hard to argue with. There are practice sessions like this morning, however, where I just mentally wasn’t up for it and must have rolled 10 sevens out of a practice set of 30 rolls. It was just awful, and will skew the rest of the roll set for quite a few more rolls, but should even itself out over a long set. Another thing that is dynamic (luck based?) is whether or not you hit repeaters on a given roll. So…its all good here.

Alamo

PS – To Dice Pilot…I once mentioned being considerate of your rolling buddies with the all 7 set, and Dom replied by basically saying ‘f’ them! You’re there to make money for YOU. Personally, I don’t roll the all 7 set anytime, but I’d let my team pals know I was coming out with it before they decided on how they wanted to bet. I’m superstitious I guess, but I don’t want to make the seven intentionally or unintentionally….bad joo joo for me. On a $10 table with full odds, trying to pick up an extra passline flat bet doesn’t ring my bell, but I know others love to tip themselves that way. Extra money for your odds, a controlled shooter once said! And…as REO Speedwagon sang ….’keep on rollin’!

Alamo

AlamoTx In a early post I told about a session I had betting come bets . I was not setting for the 7 on come outs but they came any way. Like 8 or 9 times . I was the only come better at the table . There was a DP player that was betting the DC . So to make a long story short EVERY BODY was happy except ME . I did end the roll up so was happy but could of won more had I just placed bet.
After 2 losses I did start betting the 7 on come out but did not bet enough to cover all come bets out there . Did win a couple come bets tho.
So you never know how things are going to work out.That was one of a few times that a D-P talked to me while rolling. He even cheered when I came out with a 7 since he had 3 or 4 bets out there to collect on .
When I took the class there was one thing that I hated. That was when I rolled a 4/3 or 5/2 and the instructors would say that’s a good 7 . After the class I thought they never told me what I did wrong to be doing that .Maybe if I take a refresher they will tell me .
You can have a good long roll with lots of box numbers and still not pass SC .
Do you count all 7s or not count the ones that you throw when you set for 7s on come out if you throw them ?
Good Rolling.

I find Smart Craps a useful tool. But I also find it difficult to use for every practice session. So I don’t. The reason is that smart craps makes you practice harder and more focused, in my opinion. I find that using Smart Craps at practice makes me focus more like I am at an actual casino playing for keeps. In other words it makes it more real and this is good for practice. In this way, I am not only practice my physical throw, but also practice my mental state. But I am not always able to commit that way.
I like to work in roll sets of 36. Then start a new roll set. Smart craps keeps track of the totals. But I get to see results as we go along. Although one set may be skewed the overall tells the complete story.
Tex, as for the all seven set. I am like you. I never use it. Who needs it. I also feel as you do with regard to come bettors. Why hurt your friends intentionally. If a seven happens to come up, it is a mistake, and I can live with that. It happens even though I am not setting for the seven.
However, I am a come bettor also.
I want to tell you that I never hold it against a shooter who has to decide what set he is going to use. That is the shooters prerogative. It is I, as a non shooting player who must adapt to the shooter, not the other way around. I think this is what Dom is alluding to. As the proverbial Captain of the Ship, you want the shooter to always be in control.
That means the shooter decides what he is going to do. Period.
So, don’t feel bad for a come bettor. It is his job to see what the shooter is doing. Not the other way around, in my humble opinion. So the shooter should just play his normal game, whatever that is. If it means never using the all seven set then so be it. That is how I play the game. And that is how I will always play the game. Good joo joo is important to me too!!!!! (I am going to guess that you saw the movie Silver Linings).

Alamo Tx,

I think I understand where you are coming from. One is only as good as one’s last hand and if it was a seven out all the statistics in the world is not going to make that a good hand. But let me take a stab at something to see if I can help you overcome what I think you are saying. It sounds like you are implying your mental state gets impacted when you are not performing on any given day or set of days in the casino. And your Smart Craps results or SRR do not change the fact that a poor performance loses money and leaves one with a disheartened attitude.

When that happens to me, while I am not happy about the results, I really do not care all that much about it. I know that statistically and mathematically I have an edge over the casinos. Eventually that edge will kick in and I will turn things around. I know that for certain because of the solid data I have to back up that assessment. I also know that physical skills ebb and flow so I expect to see times when my performance will be less than optimal. But it really does not change my mental attitude all that much. I am confident in the math that tells me I have a positive advantage when I throw. That knowledge is so ingrained in my psyche that it helps me through the rough spots and minimizes their impact on me.

But in order for this to work, one has to believe the numbers as dogma. There can be no doubt. I have a sound understanding of the numbers, what they mean and how they are derived. So for me it is a simple matter to trust them implicitly. I realize it may be more difficult for others. That is why I am trying to explain how it works to all so that each individual can use their own data to help their mental game as I have described.

"Skinny" wrote: Alamo Tx,

I think I understand where you are coming from. One is only as good as one’s last hand and if it was a seven out all the statistics in the world is not going to make that a good hand. But let me take a stab at something to see if I can help you overcome what I think you are saying. It sounds like you are implying your mental state gets impacted when you are not performing on any given day or set of days in the casino. And your Smart Craps results or SRR do not change the fact that a poor performance loses money and leaves one with a disheartened attitude.

When that happens to me, while I am not happy about the results, I really do not care all that much about it. I know that statistically and mathematically I have an edge over the casinos. Eventually that edge will kick in and I will turn things around. I know that for certain because of the solid data I have to back up that assessment. I also know that physical skills ebb and flow so I expect to see times when my performance will be less than optimal. But it really does not change my mental attitude all that much. I am confident in the math that tells me I have a positive advantage when I throw. That knowledge is so ingrained in my psyche that it helps me through the rough spots and minimizes their impact on me.

But in order for this to work, one has to believe the numbers as dogma. There can be no doubt. I have a sound understanding of the numbers, what they mean and how they are derived. So for me it is a simple matter to trust them implicitly. I realize it may be more difficult for others. That is why I am trying to explain how it works to all so that each individual can use their own data to help their mental game as I have described.

I love this last paragraph by Skinny and the line to trust the numbers implicitly! You have to trust your throw and the math behind what you are doing.

When I say that I play MY GAME I am not saying F you to my friends. I want everyone on this site to have the attitude that they are going to the casino to make money on their rolls, not on others. Before a student takes the class and went to the casinos, most of them were hoping for a winning day by being lucky to be at a table with someone that has a big roll. That attitude has to change because "YOU" are the one that is playing with an edge.

So it is my money on the table and I have a game plan for the session. My friends need to look at what I am doing on my comeout roll and even during the roll. They need to look at the set and then decide how THEY want to bet. I am not going to change my game plan because of my friends game. I look at what they are doing and I adjust accordingly. I have had friends say to me "sorry" when they threw a comeout 7 because of my comebets coming down and my response has always been, "Don’t worry about it, play your game the way you want!

Dominator

Its hard enough concentrating on my throw to worry about someone else. I don’t know what someone else is betting when I throw, It does not matter if its a nickel or 10,000. I just have to maintain my concentration on my job.
I do understand Alamo’s short term results though, it lets you know when to throw the dice out in the yard and do something else.

Skinny said it very well, smart craps provides very good information.

Certainly your practice results for one day, like you noted with a number of 7’s all
at one time can alter the results and may be misleading. However i have found
that when my practice results show an improvement in my smart craps scores, or
a maintenance of good scores i am also winning at the casino. When i hit a bad period,
i am also losing at the casino.

Poor scores over a number of practice sessions suggest you have a problem with your throw.

Gman

Skinny –

Here is an issue that some others may have on the board. I trust my edge and have seen it both hose the casino and lose a little ( Thankfully, I no longer lose a lot thanks to a whole host of things I’ve learned with GTC). Here’s one of my bumps in the road: I only get to the casinos maybe 6 times per year. Mentally, that makes every trip very important. In other words, I only have so many turns at the plate. If I had an opportunity like some who live within 2 hours of the casino, I think a loss or two or even three wouldn’t bother me much. However, when you know you’re not coming back to the casino for another 90 – 120 days, it is very disappointing to ‘wait until next time’ as the losers of football bowl games always say. This is my mental issue to deal with, but I’d sure like to hear from some of you on how you cope with the ‘I don’t get enough chances’ boogeyman. In other words, in MLB for example, you may be a 300 hitter, but if you’re only going to bat six times all year, all kinds of crap can happen in only six at bats. Get my drift?

And…BTW, Dom….I’m not suggesting that you truly mean ‘f’ the other players. Hope you didn’t take that wrong. If I show up at a table, however, and I get SR2 next to a GTC player I’ve not rolled with before, I’m probably going to lean over at some point and tell him/her that I’ll be rolling HW sets the whole way, just FYI. I think maybe because I’ve been a trial lawyer all my life, I’m just real cognizant of the kharma that ebbs and flows in the arena of professional courtesy. On the other hand, if the guy next to me is betting three ‘Don’t ‘ numbers on every hand, I relish the thought of skinning him down to the bones!

Keep on rollin’

Alamo

Tx,

I think the best I can do is remind you it is a journey, not a destination. Rhetorical questions: When you do go to the casino those six times, how many days do you stay? How many sessions do you play on average over those days? Multiply them to determine how many sessions you play on average per year. Now how many more years do you plan on going to casinos to play craps? Multiply that time your average yearly sessions to determine how many sessions you expect to have over the rest of your gaming life. How many throws do you expect to make during all those sessions? That should be a fairly large number.

In other words, look at the big picture because it is too easy to be influenced by short term results because they are fresh in our mind. Since you trust your edge and correspondingly trust your shot, now convince yourself to trust the math. If you have an edge over the wagers you are making, you will come out ahead in the final tally if your data sample is large enough, ie. if you have enough sessions over your gaming life as an AP. Contrary to how it seems, you are able to control your mind and how it affects your performance. Don’t let the little voice in your head get in the way of the big one. The big one is the voice of logic, reason, science, training, experience and what you know to be true.

No offense taken at all TX!

Dom

Unless I am working on a specific drill every roll goes into Smart Craps. A roll set starts with the come out roll and ends with a seven out. Each year starts the process over. This is probable not how the program is intended to work but with enough data there a pattern begins to show itself.

The SRR is built over time. It includes good and not so good rolls just like a live session. The number is low because it contains all rolls. if it is higher than random I can fell pretty good it is reliable.

I also see numbers that show way more than they should and numbers that show much less. Again because that data represents a large sample I think I can trust it. That would be particularly true if the pattern continues over more than one years data.

Passing two pro test is the best I have been able to do using this method. I do however find the program and data to be very useful to see changes in my results both good and bad as it develops over time.

JRC