Craps

Ideas for Keeping Early Losses Down

Spread the love


I suspect this topic is a common concern for a lot of people on this board.
Specifically, what are the best strategies for holding down your inevitable early losses so you can be profitable when the 20 – 30 roll hands come along? I, for example, try to limit my losses by attempting no more than 3 hands ( mine or other controlled shooters) in a session. If I lose, I walk. If I win, I walk. That helps, of course, but it is not the entire answer.

Most often, it seems I’ll experience a string of small losses using that kind of 3 and out discipline. By the time I hit a 15, 20 or 30 roll hand, it is sometimes good enough to offset the early losses and maybe make a small profit, but I’m not satisfied with that. I am wondering if any of you have strategies that allow you to ‘hang around’ for the long rolls by limiting the damage done by the short rolls. In a perfect world, you’d be up all the way on all the box numbers at the beginning of a big hand. How does one maximize the chances of that happening without doing something stupid like placing all the box numbers on the come out?

One quandry I run into is this: If you tiptoe in on the 5 count with, let’s say, a max of 3 $5 passline/come bets with double odds, and you hit a couple of them during the 5 count, you kick yourself for not having the full odds out there from the start. On the other hand, it seems inevitable that if you ignore the 5 count and go up on the 3 numbers with full odds, you seven out right after you set the board up but without hitting a single number you’re on.

I’m not sure anything really works (that’s why its called gambling), but I’d be interested in hearing some approaches. I"ve even thought about just putting the passline bet out there with full odds and then adding other bets once the 5 count is complete.

Thanks in advance for any ideas.

Alamo


Replies:

Posted by: JRC on May 15, 2013, 4:24 pm

You are so right. It is hard to control loss on those short rolls. Best of course is just don’t bet on anyone but yourself. I would include other control shooters because we all have weak turns with the dice. If you find yourself playing with two or three other known players and all have short rolls the hole can be pretty ugly.

Now you and I both know we can’t and shouldn’t lay off our other control shooters so the question becomes "how do we bet in these situations?" I know the new wisdom is come bets and odds. I pay that with pretty good results most times.

What I have found is just what you talked about. "You get up on a pass with odds and a couple comes and odds. You have burned 8 to 10 rolls if you are using the 5 count at this point. If you get no repeaters in the next several rolls you have lost money on a decent hand. It happens and it’s frustrating when it does. That is just part of the game.

To combat that I find myself going back to placing the 6&8 with a progression. In stead of 5 counting myself or other known shooters I like starting at $12 each and pressing to $30 on the first hit. Of course that cost you an additional $4 on that first hit. If your bank roll can carry it starting at $30 each is better but puts more at risk early on. Once at the $30 level each hit pays $35. You have two choices at that point. First you can rack a green chip and place another number with the 2 reds if you want on more numbers. If you go to more numbers press them as they hit to get to the point they also pay that $35 so that rack a green and use 2 reds continues on all your working bets.

The second choice and my favorite is to rack a green as before. Throw in 2 whites and press to $42.
Next hit goes to $60, then $90, $120, ect (up $30 each hit)

On my own shot this works best for me. On other people I play with spreading to more numbers works better. It seems to depend on how many 6&8’s are normal for that shooter. You need to know the come with odds (Big Skinney) pays better if a roll really takes off. Both of these will make you good money on those mid 20’s and up rolls but keeps your $’s at risk pretty low on those short rolls.

I hope this helps.

JRC

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 15, 2013, 5:30 pm

JRC –

I have used a 6/8 progression effectively in the past. It does keep your risk on the layout to a minimum but it doesn’t help in those situations where you’re spraying the box numbers but not necessarily repeating just 6’s and 8’s. $12 6 & 8 is probably the best out there for keeping the risk down, especially with no odds on the pass until you hit a pressed up 6/8 and start spreading the love around. Still, you’ve got to repeat a 6 and/or an 8 several times before you can start making a little profit.

There may actually be no answer to this. Perhaps that’s where the old saying ‘no balls, no blue chips’ comes from…you’ve got to risk it to make it, and you never know which roll is going to be the next monster. The more you’ve got out there when it happens, the better. On the other hand, you have more early losers than you do extended winners. It’s a damned shame there’s no strategy for knowing what’s coming next!

Alamo

Posted by: JRC on May 17, 2013, 2:47 am

Alamo,
I shared this 6 8 progression with you off the board after your first class. That was several years ago.
I have tried several different methods of play. I always come back to this because it is documented after more than 200 live casino games to work best for me.

Smart craps and experience tell me those 6 and 8’s show often enough I will make my money. In fact the 6 shows a lot more than the 8. I have done only the 6 with twice the starting bet and the same progression and done very well most times.

If your personal data shows you do not hit enough 6 and 8 to make enough money then use the 2 red chips from each hit to get another number as described above. That also works really well and may fit you better. No matter how you decide to go you must stay with the plan. Changing back and forth seems to always have me on the wrong plan. Trust your shot and the game plan. Wait for the stars to line up for you. It will most times. Nothing works every time out so most times is what I shoot for.

all the best to you.

JRC

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 17, 2013, 11:51 am

JRC –

I do remember the fact that you shared the strategy with me. I do use it almost exclusively when I play the $10 tables. About a month ago, I posted a post-trip report. Using that 6/8 strategy, I pasted one of the Vegas casinos very nicely and described the betting progression. The ‘only’ issue I have with the idea is that it doesn’t protect against the seven that sometimes happens during the 5 count (assuming you put the 6/8 up right away). This is kind of a mini-version of the risk that happens when shooters place all the numbers across and don’t get the hits they need. By and large though, the 6/8 strategy you apply is solid as a rock.

Alamo

Posted by: JRC on May 17, 2013, 4:40 pm

I only put the 6 and 8 up right away on myself or others i personally know have been trained and practice their skill. By starting at the $12 level and pressing the first hit to $30 the risk is low but you do still face a loss from the short 7 out. Nothing is going to change that except not playing at all. The best we can hope for is keep the short roll risk at a manageable level. We tried to get together and play back when. It never worked out and we both stopped trying. We both live in Texas so maybe we can hookup and make a local trip and compare notes. I will drop you line off the board if you are interested.

JRC

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 17, 2013, 4:56 pm

Sure. Shoot me an email sometime. I’ll be heading out to Vegas again July 31 and August 1st, if you’re interested. I also sometimes run up to Shreveport on a spur of the moment. I like to play at the Horseshoe. My experience with Lake Charles has been mixed. The tables are often packed, and it’s a long drive for that…and, I’m not crazy about the 14 foot tables. I’ve been going to Vegas a lot. Timewise, it’s the same as Shreveport ( about an hour shorter to go to Vegas).

Do stay in touch. Glad to see we’re both hanging in there.

Alamo

Posted by: Dominator on May 17, 2013, 10:30 pm

My question to both of you guys is have you actually calculated if you are playing with an edge?

that is the key … then you shouldn’t be 5-counting yourselves because you will lose money doing that. And betting less on the early rolls is not the right idea either.

Dominator

Posted by: JRC on May 18, 2013, 2:16 pm

Dom,

That is a valid point. I have a lot of practice time with a lot of rolls in Smart Craps. I record every roll in smart craps. I have not yet passed all three protest. Man that’s tough. My edge is small that’s why the pass line and 6/8 are my starting bets.

I tend to do one of two things. Either a point 7 out within a couple rolls or something in the mid teens or better. Not much in between. I agree 5 count on myself is not what I want to do. Mainly because it burns up to much of those mid teen rolls.

By using a $12 entry point from the start and pressing to $30 on the first hit is not much different than a come and odds to get on the 6/8. Either way it takes 2 hits to get paid. I am sure the math is in favor of the come with odds.

I don’t like being on the other box numbers as some of those show a lot less than random according to Smart Craps. As a result of all that data in Smart Craps I have decided to take a small variance from strict GTC teachings.

I still drink the cool-aid and look forward to more work in Chicago latter this year. Memphis was a big help so thanks to you and all the instructors for that.

As always your concern and guidance is what makes GTC the outstanding organization it is. THANKS

JRC

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 20, 2013, 11:53 am

Dom –

Point well taken. I do have an edge; however, as Frank mentioned once, that edge is always dynamic. I suppose I should not 5 count myself. My best rolls in Vegas and other places have come when I just charge out of the chute. I think I’m being overly conservative with trying to somehow ‘avoid’ the quick outs and only have money on the layout when I’m in the middle of a good roll. Probably can’t be done. What I’m finding is that either a 6/8 strategy or a come bet strategy will make money when you get up there past 10 rolls. There are, of course, those times when you roll in the twenties and can’t seem to hit your numbers. On the five count, I can’t tell you how many times I’ve hit a couple of numbers early and wished I’d had full odds out there.

A related question: Other than based on pure mathe, do you see a significant downside to playing a double odds game versus the 3, 4, 5x game that Vegas gives you? Skinny once mentioned that you can effectively use his betting method (The Big Skinny) with double odds or with the full allowable odds on each number. The 4 and 10 don’t give much increased exposure, but at 5x odds, the 6 & 8 do put more money out there. Even though they are easier numbers to make, they don’t always show up just because you have max odds on them.

Alamo

Posted by: Skinny on May 20, 2013, 9:25 pm

Dom can answer the rest of the question. But as far as the number difference between double odds and 3-4-5X odds it comes down to a 0.61% HA for double odds versus a 0.37% HA for 3-4-5X. There is not a huge difference between the two in terms of HA numbers. It is about 1/4 of a percentage point.

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 21, 2013, 1:17 pm

Just wondering because with a $5 game and 3,4 & 5x, you have a max of $85 at risk on, say three naturals. Using double odds and 3 numbers, you’re at risk number is only $45. If your comfort level is to have $90 or so at risk on any one hand, then one could use the Big Skinny with double odds and feel more comfortable about only having $45 on the layout while pushing up the number of bets on the table after the first hit. Even 5 bets on the table with double odds is only $75. The big disadvantage I see in the Big Skinny is that a come out 7 screws up all your hard work. I’ve toyed with the idea of converting the come bets to place bets after maybe roll # 10 or after 5 hits. Just wondering.
Alamo

Posted by: Skinny on May 21, 2013, 4:23 pm

Once I have a sufficient profit to cover what is on the table, I will put back some of the numbers with place bets on a come out seven. But I will only use the money that is coming back to me in odds. I don’t want to take money out of my rails to do so. I kept track of my hits and what number hit with chips. I then make place bets on the numbers that I have been hitting in that session.

But if I have not collected much money I usually start over from scratch on a come out seven unless I feel really good and am willing to risk it. In general I find it best to have a profit before doing the place bets.

If I do place bets, I will continue with come bets. I will either leave the place bets up for a double hit (come and place) on future hits or take it down all depending on where I stand with my profit at the time.

Posted by: Dominator on May 22, 2013, 11:45 am

Here is the point guys and thank you for looking at your edge to see if you indeed have one. Because you both are playing with an edge then you are costing yourself money by not going out with in JRC’s case a $30 6/8 immediately and in Tx’s case full odds from the get go.

Being afraid of the short rolls immediately begs the question about bankroll and if you guys, (and I don’t mean to single out you guys, because I mean everyone), are truly playing against a 401G account. I sense and hear a fear …. oh my God, I will lose the first time I get the dice! I contend that at anytime, first roll or last roll, if you are playing with an edge you will have you 15 to 20 roll hand.

You can not go into this battle with the casinos worrying about the short rolls if you have an edge. That edge will show itself.

So here you go, if you feel comfortable with starting with a $12 6/8 and move it up to a $30 that is fine, if you like to start with double odds and move it up to full odds, that is fine also. Just get it in your mind that that is your comfort zone and don’t think that it is because you are afraid of the short rolls. Finding one’s comfort zone in their betting is so important. You can not think about he money that is on the table. You need to always shoot with an "empty mind" like you do in practice.

So if you your 401G can sustain losses at the $30 or full odds level, than that is the way to play. If your 401G can not sustain those losses, then the way you are betting is fine

Dominator

Posted by: JRC on May 22, 2013, 3:25 pm

Dom,

Again all your points are right on target. The 401g is the key to the whole thing.
In my case that account is very able to support larger bets. I built it using the described 6/8 progression.
My bets escalated as the 401g increased. At this point the 6/8 start at $60 each. It should not be much longer till it goes to $120 each. The 401g is not quite there yet.

The answer was given in context of the question in hopes it could help a new low limit player.
It seems clear to me if that 6/8 bet works well at the $12 level. Once that is proven all that is needed is step up the $’s to increase the wins. I think a very smart guy once told me "trust your practiced shot and bet your edge." Oh wait that was you in my very first class. That is still true today.

As always it’s great to have you and the other GTC crew there looking out for us. This is a tough trail at times. It is such a comfort to know we are following someone who has already been there.

JRC

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 22, 2013, 3:40 pm

Dom –

Thanks for the tips. I would say a couple of things: My 401G can stand the losses. My mind, however, hates going home with a net loss. Maybe that’s fear of losing, but I don’t think so. I read an old article by Stickman which documents the fact that even very high edge players have a large number of quick 7 outs. I’ve always told myself that if I’m going to have a 20 or 30 roll hand, I’m going to get past 5 rolls while I’m doing it. This could be erroneous thinking however.

Your point about the edge is well taken. I think the potential problem I’m trying to overcome…and it may be impossible…is a common enough occurrence. You’re a $5 player. You get a couple of turns with the dice and you lose $50 each time. On the third time with the dice you have a roll in the twenties and you make $125 on that hand. You’re up $25 after three tries with the dice. Ideally, I’d like to figure out a way to avoid or minimize those first two losing sessions and just be present for the longer hand. You’re exactly right about tiptoeing into the water. I can’t tell you how many times I’ll 5 count myself with just the point up there and end up hitting one or more numbers multiple times on what would have been full odds payouts if I had been all in. I think I’m going to just have to sack up and play all out from the word ‘go’.

I will say this: Playing the 6/8 for $30 each from the beginnning really works well for me, so far. With $30 on each number, you don’t need 4 hits to get both numbers up there where you want them. I almost always hit at least one 6 or 8 within the first 5 or 10 rolls, and that puts the ‘at risk’ number much lower. What do you think about the idea of placing the 6 & 8 for $30 each and racking the first hit, then spreading beginning with the second hit? That way, on your first two hits, you’ve collected $60 and as of the 2d hit, you’ve got double odds on the passline point (if its not a 6 or 8 ), so you can push it up to $25 when it hits, etc., then rack a green and place $10 until you’ve got all the box numbers in play. Or would you advocate, spread from the beginning? Two hits = $50 recovered in the rack and the point with double odds and an additional number for $10. My gut says be aggressive from the start. What’s $15 when you’ve got 4 numbers in play after just two hits? Also, if the comfort level can stand it, would the best play be Passline with full odds and place 6 & 8 for $30 each?

This stuff is probably more philosophy than anything else. Almost any system makes money when you go over 15 rolls ( assuming you are a disciplined bettor.)

Thanks for the feedback.

Alamo

Posted by: Dr Crapology on May 22, 2013, 10:28 pm

Tex, I like to use The Big Skinny and add in placing the 6 and 8. Assuming a $5 table if the point is 6 or 8 I take $25 in odds, if the point is a 5 or 9 I take $20 and if the 4 or 10 I take $15 odds. All the bets pay $35. Assuming my point is NOT a 6 or 8 I place both the 6 and 8 with $30 for 3 numbers covered. I then make a come bet if it hits a 6 or 8 I rack the green and press with the red. Any pay days early on I continue to rack the green and press with the red. I do this until I get 8 paydays. This allows we to press up very slowly at first. Like you I usually hit a couple of 6s and/or 8s early on. If the come bet instead goes to an outside number I take the odds and make another bet—now 4 numbers (2 outside numbers and the 6 and 8( at risk (a little risky for me) but if the next come bet also goes to an outside number (way too many numbers this early in the roll) I take down the 6 and 8 for 3 numbers at risk and not make come bet. If one of my numbers hits, I now have 2 numbers working at place the 6 and 8 again.

Subtracting the number of paydays from the number of bets on the table I never like to have more than 3 "net" bets at risk and prefer 2. The only time I have more that 3 numbers at risk is as mentioned above and not for very long. I have the bankroll to withstand the very infrequent time that I do seven out with 4 bets "net" at risk as this is for a very short period of time.

After 8 hits I go to a press and pull.

Any comments positive or negative are encouraged. It seems to protect me from a large early loss let put me in position to make some serious $$$$ should I have a long roll.

Just my $.02 worth.

Doc

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 22, 2013, 10:48 pm

Doc –

I have been experimenting with something like that, as well, with several variants, which I won’t bore everyone with.

My empirical finding is that all of the methods work IF you hold the dice for 15 or more rolls. From 10 – 15, you tend to break even or make a very small profit. I think what I like about come bets is that they tend to ‘pick’ what is hot for your roll. I think it is a nice mix to start with 3 come bets, converting them to place bets at some point.

Re a 6/8 strategy, we have a significant advantage over the 6 & 8, so placing those numbers after the come out for $30 each, with no odds if the point is 4,5,9 or 10, works very well. Let’s say the point is 5. First hit on a 6 or 8, you put $10 odds on the 5; Second hit, place the 9, third hit, place the 10, 4th hit place the 4. Invariably, if you extend the roll beyond 10, you’ll pick up one or two outside box numbers that are paying $35 per hit. If you’ve got a 15+ hand going, you’re going to get 4 hits ( unless lady luck hates you that day…and sometimes she does). By hit number 5, you’re getting a decent return. By ‘hit’, I mean a number that is paying $35. It aLso works for me to do 3 naturals with odds and once they’re on the board stop the come bets. Then, as they hit, I convert them to place bets and put a $10 on an uncovered number. Not much different from what you’re describing. I really like the Big Skinny, because it gets you to four numbers quickly (2/3ds of the layout), and a couple of repeaters, and you’re covered. There’s no waiting for your $10 numbers to become players. But, with the Big Skinny, I struggle with the come out 7 in the middle of a roll. It ruins the fun, so I’m playing with the idea of beginning to convert a Big Skinny run into place bets after, say 5 hits. Like I said, it all works when you get a good roll. Ultimately, I think Dom hit the nail on the head. The 5 count ties one hand behind your back during at least 5 of your rolls. Sometimes it takes 7 or 8 rolls to complete a 5 count. 8 rolls is more than 1/2 of a 15 roll hand, a hand in which you have small money on the layout! I guess, it’s no balls no blue chips!

Alamo

Posted by: Dominator on May 23, 2013, 5:53 pm

Tex

I just wrote this out in another email …..the mental side of this game is so important and something we tend to over look. Call it fear of losing, call it just not wanting to lose.

I like it that you are thinking about betting though and this subject is a topic on this board. We are stressing betting more and more in our seminars, something that I think was not stressed enough.

What I do now, I never change the amount of the bet that I start with in a particular session. I establish the point and take full odds, I then go out with two comebets taking full odds, replacing the comebets as they hit. As the roll progresses I begin to make place bets, but I never stop with the comebets. My increase on the bets will come from pressing my place bets and the comebets just become gravy.

Dominator

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 23, 2013, 7:36 pm

Dom –

I’ve tried a few times to do what you’re advocating, but it gets confusing to me if I keep the come bets going, because I invariably hit a number I’ve got a place bet on and have to move a come bet to it. Then, I have to decide whether to move the place bet over to an open number, etc. How do you manage that issue, so that it doesn’t distract from your focus, which is throwing? I’m sure you’ll agree that your betting mechanics have to be second nature and automatic. The last thing I want to do is have a pressed up place bet on the 4, then hit it with a come bet and try to decide whether to move the 4 over to the 10 or keep it double parked with a new come bet on top of it. Get my question? Using $5 units as an example, the best way I"ve been able to do this with my simple brain is to get three naturals on the layout with full odds, then convert them to maxed place bets as they hit and moving a unit over to an uncovered number until all the numbers are represented. Example: I"ve got the 8,5 and 10 as naturals with full odds. I stop come betting when there are three full odds naturals on the layout. Then, let’s say I hit the 8 and it pays me $35. The dealer gets ready to give me the payout and I tell him ‘place the 8 for $30’. 8, 5 and 10 are still maxed. Then I say, ‘place the 6 for $12’. Next hit is a 6, so throw $5 at the guy and tell him to push it up to $30. 6 hits again. I rack the green chip and move $10 over to the 9, and this goes on ideally until every number is in play for the max. I also like doing this because it removes the game killing come out 7 from the equation. I can’t tell you how much I detest it when a come out 7 in the middle of a lengthy roll wipes out my come bets. Placing them back is an option, but it just ain’t the same! Of course, you do save your odds and there’s a lot to be said for building back up after a come out seven in case of the quick out after the come out 7. I also hate those 2s, 3’s and 12s that always seem to whittle away at my come bets. ONe of the ways I’ve dealt with the come out seven on roll 15 or 20 is to move to a 6 & 8 game, and essentially start over.

It also seems to me that the ideal situation, assuming you can roll for a while, is to place the 6 & 8 for $30 each and take full odds on your passline bet if it is one of the outside numbers. You’ve got the two numbers we all have the biggest advantage over in play and you can spread out from there. It is a dilemma that will never be solved I think. It does take a few more rolls to get three come bets established, so the risk of an early 7 is somewhat reduced with come betting. The heart of the controversy is that you can’t predict what is going to roll next. When we get that one figured out, we can really all get rich!

From my time at the tables with other GTC players, I can tell you that I think disciplined betting is a critical part of controlled shooting. I"ve seen a lot of guys who have decent shots lose money for a whole host of reasons related to betting. Betting on random rollers, staying at the table chasing losses while waiting for the big one, going up on too many numbers too soon…etc. I"ve got a decent shot now, but I’m really honing in on the best ways to bet into that shot so that I have a real chance of earning money…because the casinos can and sometimes will beat you, even with an advantage, and they’ll especially beat you if you give the advantage away with poor play.

My 2 cents worth.

Alamo

Posted by: Dominator on May 24, 2013, 1:34 pm

Alamo

I don’t keep a place bet and a come bet up initially. If this doesn’t answer your question tell me. Two methods that I use:

I establish a point and take full odds and then put out a comebet. Goes to a number, take max odds, and then another comebet with max odds. I now try to get three hits from these bets, either in making my point which I would consider a hit or from the comebets. When a comebet goes down I put out another comebet. IN this sequence I am throwing 10’s and I have had a comebet on the 10 which I won …. so I have throw two 10’s so far in that roll. I have a comebet out and it again goes to the 10. I throw another 10 to win that comebet. At this time I have now throw 4 10’s so I will buy it now. I have already gotten three hits, (my original comment), so I will have a comebet out, and lets say that I throw another 10. My comebet goes to the 10, I also get paid on my buy bet of the 10. So what I do is take the money from the win from the buy bet and tell the dealer to give me full odds on the comebet and keep the 10 up as well.

At this point the only number I have a comebet and a place/buy bet is on the 10. But because of all the hits I am going, I am going to keep going with comebets until the rolls ends. In other words, I have comebets up all the time. At some point in this roll I will also begin to place the 6/8 first so it has a comebet and place bet going. now this is a major roll as you can tell. Lets take another example that maybe goes to what you asked a little better.

New roll …. in this session I have decided to place the 6 and 8 and go with a comebet. In other words I have a passline bet out with max odds, a place bet on the 6 and 8, and a comebet in the come area. If the comebet goes to the 6 or 8 I tell the dealer very simply to take me down with make odds. He understands that that means I want to come down on my 6 and with the win as well as the money I had on the 6 I want full odds on the comebet. A simple move for the dealers.

I do not put out another comebet at this point. I have three bets working, m,y passline, a place bet on the 8 and a comebet on the 6. Now lets say I throw a 6. My comebet goes down, I get paid, but I tell the dealer to place the 6. I do this because I started with a place bet on the 6. I will also put out a comebet. If I throw another 6 with that comebet out there I will usually at this point, tell the dealer to keep my 6 up and I will give the dealer any additional money that is needed from my win from the 6 to give me comebet full odds. So I now have a place bet and a comebet on the 6.

What I am doing in both scenarios is seeing a "signature" number in that roll. I don’t believe in signature numbers EXCEPT in a particular roll of the dice. I will take advantage of this with place and come bets.

Hope this makes it a little clearer

Dominator

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 24, 2013, 10:54 pm

Dom –

I do understand now what you’re doing and it is apparently not always the same approach.

Another question, and this goes to everybody, but the essence of the question goes to the mental part of the game.

You mentioned that you don’t have ‘signature’ numbers except per roll. I am beginning to believe that I have signature betting methods. I may have to roll and log a lot more results, but it appears to me that I have better and longer rolls when I use certain betting methods over others. For example, at least empirically, it seems that I have a lot more quick outs when I am using a 3 number come betting strategy of any sort, OTHER THAN, The Big Skinny. Similarly, if I am placing the 6 & 8, the results also show longer rolls. In logging results, on any particular betting method I’m using, I roll no more than 3 hands and quit, as I would in a live situation. So two questions:

1. Is it possible that because I feel confident and have belief in The Big Skinny and the 6 & 8 Place strategy, my results are better? What I am getting at is something my GF said to me when I shook my head and said something like "no matter what I do, I don’t seem to get long rolls with a straight come betting strategy." She said it could be the pull of the moon or it could be that your belief about the method influences you subconsciously. She said something like: "You think you are going to win using TBS or Placing the 6 & 8, and so, you do!" I am a firm believer in the power of the mind. What say the other members of the board? Clearly, if you don’t believe in something or you think it is too dull or boring or conservative, it might not give you results. I know people who win money placing all the numbers across and they swear it is the only betting method that works with their game. I think placing everything across is insane. I would expect to lose doing that..even though a controlled shot might change the odds a bit. But some people believe in it and claim to win doing it. Does their belief give them the good rolls?

2. Do you think 1000 3 game sessions with each betting method would be enough to indicate that my subconscious does better with one system or the other? That would be 3000 hands. I believe that all of the good betting methods that I’ve seen described here will win money for you when you have a +15 roll going. But, what part does your mind and your belief in your system of choice play in all of this?

Interested to see what you guys have to say about the intangibles….the foo foo stuff if you will. I don’t care about superstition, although I have some, but I do care about the power of belief.

Later brothers and sisters.

Alamo

Posted by: Dominator on May 28, 2013, 8:08 pm

Alamo

I have always said and now I am saying ti again in all the seminars that this game is 80% mental and 20% physical. The power of the mind is something to not be underestimated.

IMHO, your GF is right on target. You think, (no data to support this) that using the one betting strategy make you have longer rolls than the other. Because of this, I do think you are letting your mind get in the way, and nothing wrong with that. One thing is for sure, you need to feel comfortable at the table when you throw and comfort comes from the mind.

Yes I think 1000 results would be enough

Dom

Posted by: GameDay on May 29, 2013, 1:37 am

Tex,
I am also a believer in the mental part of the game. Once you have the skills to throw and bet, the mental part is always the challenge. Although it is hard to verify on a large scale, one only need to look at each individual player. All of us have stories of when everything just seemed click. For me, the 4 best throws I ever had came when my mental state was very sharp and very focused. I have had great throws on two class weekends, when I had a chance to work on my throw and was just very confident.Another time was when my wife and some friends were with me and I knew I was going to show them the GTC method worked. The other time I was getting mauled and I had 300 dollars left and I just said, enough, I am going to make this happen.
When I get into the right mental state good things happen. I have trouble reaching this state often. It is not something I can control. So, I try to work on the mental stuff when I practice in the hopes that I can bring that to the table also. But it is very hard. Harder than learning to throw and bet.

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 29, 2013, 3:18 pm

Thanks, guys. For sure, you can’t measure the intangibles. These comments give me confidence in choosing which betting method I like best. I believe in the mental stuff. I just wanted to see that I wasn’t crazy.

Alamo

Posted by: Set44 on May 30, 2013, 4:26 am

I agree that our throwing is 80% mental and 20% physical. Now, for a dialogue – what is the 80% mental to you? Set44 πŸ˜€ :geek: :mrgreen:

Posted by: AlamoTx on May 30, 2013, 8:13 pm

One of the things I started doing…and, I can’t prove it helps…is to NOT practice the day before a trip. Instead, when I get a chance, I close my eyes and visualize a throw from the time the stick slides the dice to me until the dice finish and lay still on the felt showing a hard 8 or a 4/2 or whatever result comes into my mind. Dominator once posted that kind of advice on visualization, and I think going to the casino is like preparing for any sporting event. Once you’ve got your training in, you stop working on your game and you start focusing on the visualization of your winning trip.

I’m heading off to Shreveport on Sunday, and maybe I’ll have a trip report.

Alamo

Posted by: Dominator on May 30, 2013, 10:24 pm

"AlamoTx" wrote: One of the things I started doing…and, I can’t prove it helps…is to NOT practice the day before a trip. Instead, when I get a chance, I close my eyes and visualize a throw from the time the stick slides the dice to me until the dice finish and lay still on the felt showing a hard 8 or a 4/2 or whatever result comes into my mind. Dominator once posted that kind of advice on visualization, and I think going to the casino is like preparing for any sporting event. Once you’ve got your training in, you stop working on your game and you start focusing on the visualization of your winning trip.

I’m heading off to Shreveport on Sunday, and maybe I’ll have a trip report.

Alamo

The week before any trip I go to sleep counting rolls instead of sheep! I close my eyes and just see the rolls coming out of my hands and people cheering at the table. The night before a day trip I do the same.

What is 80% mental. Well to me anyone can learn our throw and with practice they will gain an edge. The difference between a big edge and a small one is how you approach the game. Either in your betting or in your mental approach. What makes Tiger Woods who he is again. Well he re-honed his swing, but I really believe he got his mind back into the game of golf

Dominator

Posted by: Set44 on May 31, 2013, 1:19 am

Thank you. I love GTC. Tomorrow night the Wisconsin Six Shooters are getting together. As we gather we talk about the mental parts of the game, the throw, the evening, the particular table, the dealers and most of all – relaxing and throwing just as we each practice the physical part of the game hundreds of times a week. Good Luck today, and may your someday be today. Set44 πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

Posted by: The WoW Man on May 31, 2013, 2:21 pm

Set44, Gman and the rest of The Wisconsin Six Shooters,

The best of luck to you guys. Kick some butts and have fun!

Catch you later!
The Wow Man

Posted by: Timmer on May 31, 2013, 3:17 pm

"Set44" wrote: I agree that our throwing is 80% mental and 20% physical. Now, for a dialogue – what is the 80% mental to you? Set44 πŸ˜€ :geek: :mrgreen:

Great question, Set44!

The "80% mental" part of advantage play includes knowing your edge over what is a negative-expectation game and having confidence in your skill-set and shot.

Being armed with this knowledge is a most-important part of being thoroughly planned and prepared for an upcoming session or trip.

The mental aspect also includes having realistic expectations of expected win amounts. Often overlooked is having an understanding and acceptance of the variance that is bound to occur during even a single session of craps.

Accepting that the "ups and downs" of this game we all love will happen and not letting it throw you off your game is another important part of winning advantage play.

A wise person once said: "Trust your throw or you will be toast…" Truer words were never spoken.

The wise person quoted also happens to be a GTC Instructor. Can anyone guess who it is?

😎 😎 😎

Posted by: Dominator on May 31, 2013, 5:09 pm

"Set44" wrote: Thank you. I love GTC. Tomorrow night the Wisconsin Six Shooters are getting together. As we gather we talk about the mental parts of the game, the throw, the evening, the particular table, the dealers and most of all – relaxing and throwing just as we each practice the physical part of the game hundreds of times a week. Good Luck today, and may your someday be today. Set44 πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€ πŸ˜€

When I started I played a lot with Tenor and as we waited for our card from valet, we would discuss how we could be focused each and every throw. We would talk about what was in our mind when we had the good toss at afternoon. it really helped!

Dominator

Posted by: Timmer on June 2, 2013, 4:07 am

"Timmer" wrote: A wise person once said: "Trust your throw or you will be toast…" Truer words were never spoken. The wise person quoted also happens to be a GTC Instructor. Can anyone guess who it is?

"Dr Crapology" wrote: As No Field Five always says "trust your throw." Alligator Rose and Doc

Well, Doc and/or Alligator Rose put the same quote in another post.

The wise advice to "Trust your throw or you will be toast" does indeed come from our very own No Field Five…

Brilliant advice from "da Five", as usual…!

😎 😎 😎

Posted by: Eagle Eye on June 18, 2013, 3:41 pm

Alamo, I find players with big money usually watch or scout the tables first before they play. I have seen them just walk away sometimes and not play at all. Tables good they play. I like what was said about come betting. when the table gets hot put down bigger money on place bets and push the house around a little bit. I am sure you will make money. 😯

Posted by: Finisher on June 25, 2014, 7:45 am

Bump

Posted by: TheLion on June 25, 2014, 4:17 pm

The Princess and I play as a team — we share the pass line & odds (we use one central bank behind our rails for our money)

We always place the 6 & 8 for $12 each (if not the point); the Princess makes all the bets when I shoot …..and I do all the betting when she shoots. Therefore, the shooter can focus 100% on the "shooting" — the other team member takes care of the betting. The Princess is more aggressive than I am and will make hard-way bets too. She’s lucky, because she does win on them — she’s got good timing (but, she uses her own bankroll, which "kind of" is mine, LOL))

We use a "3-box" count on randoms before we bet anything — unless we’re way up on our shooting, then we’ll 6/8 the randoms with $12 each…..that’s it !!

When we shoot, our initial "spread" is very low, especially when it’s divided by 2 people. We count on our ability to hit fire bets (with pretty good success) and to shoot WELL over the trip to make our money. We also try to team up with other GTC friends and have 4 good shooters at the table — it definitely worked during our last Las Vegas trip.

Mentally??? — I have no issues with that — I played baseball and basketball — my mind is really focused, and when I’m shooting well, I get focused and dialed-in — all of the sports I played really helps me. The Princess gets a bit nervous when the roll gets going — I try to calm her down as much as I can, but she begins to "rattle" herself — once she gets past that, she’ll will be even better

Posted by: Finisher on June 26, 2014, 7:47 pm

So she wins on hard way bets that you throw since she is betting and you are throwing . πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚ I wish my wife would play craps but she does not like the tall table thing since she is 5 ft tall . I laugh because when ever she comes to the table she asks are you on the hard ways and crap ?
Good Rolling. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

Posted by: TheLion on June 27, 2014, 1:14 pm

Yep — she wins on the hard-ways when I hit them …. I just watch her collect the money; I used to play the hard-ways in the past, but once I took the GTC classes, I stopped — I only do it now when it’s the 4th, 5th, or 6th points when the FIRE BET is "lit" up

She also plays the hard-ways on random shooters …. she’s lucky, ’cause she wins on them — funny thing is, when I put one of my white $1 chips next to her $25 green chip, she starts to lose. I guess I’m the kiss of death to her winnings, etc.

During our Vegas trip, this random shooter (a young guy) hit 4 hard 6’s in a row — one guy won $9000 on the hit and he pressed the hard-way to $3000 (he lost it later in the roll) — but, the princess did win almost $700 on the last hardway 6 hit. She had $225 on there when the "5/1 easy 6" came to lose her bet. I think his roll was about 45 minutes and he hit about 10-15 various hard-ways during his roll. It was crazy !!! I saw him shoot 5 more times during the trip, and he could NEVER do it again

Posted by: Finisher on July 1, 2014, 6:12 am

I seldom play the hard ways but did roll a hard 8 for a guy who made 2300.00 on it .I got a high fiv . for it . πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚
Good Rolling. πŸ™‚ πŸ™‚

Posted by: TheLion on July 2, 2014, 2:35 pm

I got a $5 tip from someone after my 75-roll, 6-point fire bet hit in LV a few weeks ago

The Princess got $50 after my same roll because she’s cuter than me

Posted by: Finisher on January 31, 2021, 2:46 am

I thought I would bring this up again since I am trying out some of the ideas that are in this post .