Hi baseball fans !
I don’t post much, but I thought I’d post a baseball betting system I have used. It’s easy and has made money. Last year it made 66 units profit, betting on 192 series and only lost 3 times. (The teams I picked were swept for 3 games.)
Here are the system rules:
1. I do not start betting real money until May 6, 2013. (This is very important to establish who are the good and bad teams.)
2. I bet on only 3 and 4 game series, but only the first 3 games of a 4 game series.
3. First game is bet A, 1 unit bet, if I win this, the series is over.
4. If bet A loses, I bet second game bet B, 3 units, if this wins series is over.
5. If bet B loses I bet third game bet C, 6 units, win or lose the series is over. (no D bet)
6. I bet on the moneyline, unless the team is the underdog then I bet on the +1.5 runline. It’s rare but can happen.
7. End this system at end of August, no betting in September due to playoff runs.
Here is the betting team selection criteria:
1. I only bet for teams with a win % of over .560 or against teams with a win % under .400.
2. EVERY Monday morning I make a list of these teams that qualify.
3. I do not bet on a series that has both teams over .560 or both under .400 win %.
4. If betting against a below .400 team, the team i bet on must have a .500 or better win %.
5. I do not bet on inter-league play, AL vs. NL teams.
That’s it!
It is very, very important to follow these rules strictly. Don’t begin until May and even at the beginning of May you may get some teams that haven’t settled-in. For example, the Angels are below .400 so far this year. I do not think they are a bad team, given their roster, so will probably not bet against them. Don’t get sucked into betting -1.5 bets, it’s not worth the risk. Even though some odds seem short, they add up nicely.
If games are rained out or postponed, I abandon the series. I will make up for this with other series wins. It is also very important to update the teams list every Monday because this will change when teams get hot or go into long slumps. I get about 8 to 10 teams over .560 and maybe 2 or 3 teams under .400 to select from.
The system is easy to follow. I know progression betting doesn’t work in Craps or Blackjack, but with baseball it does work. This is mainly due to the fact that teams play a 3 or 4 game series before moving onto the next team. This isn’t the case with football, basketball, or hockey.
Best of luck.
Replies:
Posted by: brothelman on May 6, 2013, 9:07 pm
Some teams are defiantly better on the road or at home, so which ever team you are betting on must be playingwhere they play best and the team they are playing should be playing where they play their worst.
Posted by: Guest on May 7, 2013, 1:14 am
"brothelman" wrote: One suggested modification
Some teams are defiantly better on the road or at home, so which ever team you are betting on must be playingwhere they play best and the team they are playing should be playing where they play their worst.
I prefer to keep the strategy as simple as possible. The basic premise of the strategy is that teams with a .560 win percentage will win at least one game of the three game series and teams with less than a .400 win percentage will loose at least one game, otherwise their records would be significantly different. There are many modifications than can be made, but I found this simple strategy works and has no emotional bias. Just follow the rules and collect the cash. Last year only three series lost and I had a profit of 66 units.
I am looking at changing the betting rules to beef up the profits. Basically, if a team is a favorite I would bet the -1 runline. If a team was an underdog, I would bet the Money Line. I am still testing it on paper, it will probably be just as effective, but will have more volatility.
Thanks for the question.
Posted by: brothelman on May 7, 2013, 3:44 am
Posted by: ThomasH on May 16, 2013, 3:17 pm
I have a some questions?
1) If both teams are above .500, ie .595 vs .520, do you still bet?
2) You said stay away from -1.5 bets, are you talking about the runline bets or moneyline over -150?
3) Do you only look at the winning percentage on monday or do you adjust thur/fri morning before the teams start a new series?
Posted by: Guest on May 16, 2013, 8:14 pm
"ThomasH" wrote: Bankroll,
I have a some questions?
1) If both teams are above .500, ie .595 vs .520, do you still bet?
2) You said stay away from -1.5 bets, are you talking about the runline bets or moneyline over -150?
3) Do you only look at the winning percentage on monday or do you adjust thur/fri morning before the teams start a new series?
1) If both team’s winning percentage are above .560, I do not bet that series. So if one team was .595 and the other was .520, I’d bet. On betting against a team with a winning percentage below .400, the team they are playing would need to have a winning percentage above .500, otherwise no bet.
2) I am talking about runline bets. For favorites, I always bet the Moneyline. For underdogs, I always bet the +1.5 runline.
3) Right now I am looking at the winning percentage before every series, mainly because it’s still early in the season and the standings can quickly chance. Later in the season, I’ll only look at Monday’s.
Posted by: Guest on May 16, 2013, 8:20 pm
Reds vs. Phillies
Indians vs. Mariners
Orioles vs. Rays
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
D-Backs vs. Marlins
Red Sox vs. Twins
Cards vs. Brewers
Posted by: ThomasH on May 16, 2013, 9:09 pm
Why do you stay away from the under .400 teams unless they are playing a team above .500 yet you bet two teams about .500. It would seem the difference between winning percentage of the two teams would be more of a deciding factor? Just trying to understand.
Do you ever bet interleague when you have a series like Pitts 0.575 at home vs Houston 0.268?
Posted by: Guest on May 16, 2013, 10:04 pm
"ThomasH" wrote: Thanks, pretty much what I thought.
Why do you stay away from the under .400 teams unless they are playing a team above .500 yet you bet two teams about .500. It would seem the difference between winning percentage of the two teams would be more of a deciding factor? Just trying to understand.
Do you ever bet interleague when you have a series like Pitts 0.575 at home vs Houston 0.268?
Typically when you have two bad teams playing each other you never know what’s going to happen. Instead of thinking about who is going to win each game, think, will this team win one of the first three games of a 3-4 game series. Or if you are betting against a .400 team, will this team lose at least one game of the series. Teams with a .560 winning pct. will win at least one game and teams with a win pct. below .400 will lose one, a significant majority of the time. That is why have those records. If you have two teams, with one below .400 and one below .500, you never know, because the majority of the time they don’t win games.
I stay away from interleague games because they can be very unpredictable with an NL team needing to find a DH and they may not have a great bat on the bench to fill that role. Also, the NL Pitchers never even need to think about hitting, etc. With that said, I am tempted to bet against the Astros. Pittsburgh is playing well and the Astros are not very good. Plus this is only the first year of the Astros being in the AL, so it’s not like the NL is foreign to them!
