Craps

Match Play or Free Bet? Which is Better?

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http://www.scoblete.com/article/would-y … ame=Gaming Strategies


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Posted by: Skinny on July 30, 2012, 10:05 pm

Mr. Krigman states, "On the even-money bet, the $25 cash token is therefore worth as much as $50 match play."

Having read numerous articles by Mr. Krigman and thoroughly enjoying each and every single one of them, I am saddened to say this is one of the rare times that I tend to disagree with one of his points.

Yes, it is true that the expected value of the $50 match play coupon is the same as the expected value of the $25 cash token. Both have an expected value of $24.32.

But you can not get that value from the match play without risking $50 of your own cash. Since your cash has an expected value of $48.65, it costs you $1.35 of your own cash to get the EV of $24.32 with the match play. Whereas it cost you $0, nothing, nada of your own moolah to get the EV of $24.32 from the cash token.

Therefore, it seems to me that on the even-money bet, the $25 cash token is worth more than the $50 match play.

Whoops, I read his analysis too quickly. Upon further reading I see he did take into consideration the loss on your own cash. He was right, the two wagers are equivalent. My faith in Alan Krigman is restored and I stand corrected.

Can one stand corrected if one corrects oneself? Or does someone else have to correct you for you to stand corrected? Maybe I sit corrected. Ahh, this is getting too complicated. OK, the correction is now noted. 🙂

Posted by: Finisher on July 30, 2012, 11:28 pm

Skinny what about the free bet that stays up till you loose it ? So far I have only won once with it.
Good Rolling. 😀