As I have now practiced with and actually played utilizing The Big Skinny betting method, I wanted to share my experiences with anybody who is interested. And, let me say at the outset that this post is not meant to be critical of the method. It is just my observations and opinions and is strictly applicable to me and my tolerance for risk. This is what I’ve found:
First of all, broken down to its basics, The Big Skinny is a ‘press from the beginning’ kind of method. I would characterize it as VERY aggressive having used it now and not too profitably. Frank is fond of reminding us that every time you have a number on the board, you have a separate game against the 7. Simply put, since TBS calls for three immediate come bets, the player must win all three of those bets in order to begin collecting any real money. In practice, this means that you need to hit a minimum of 5 numbers to make any meaningful gains. Most of us will not hit 3 of the established numbers within the first ten rolls. We’ll hit some numbers but probably not all three in the first ten. If you do, you’re lucky and you have an SRR of 15 or so…or you,re kidding yourself…or you’re too damn good for me and you can do what you want.
What has happened far too often to me, both in practice and in real play, is that you don’t make three numbers before you seven out. Other times, you load them up on all three numbers and then seven out. When I first saw Skinny’s discussion of the system, my first question involved how to dig oneself out of early holes. As some of you who have played with me know, I am a respectable shooter, capable of hitting a good string. However, for all the mid-twenty and thirty roll hands I have, there are more that go under 15 and not a small number that go significantly less than that. If you could predict which roll was going to be the 30+ roll, any system would be profitable. Regrettably, my experience has been that in real play, I’ve usually lost substantial amounts using TBS before the big run comes along. A mid-twenty or thirty then simply brings you back to even. Fairly demoralizing not to mention the pressure that early losses puts on the player to get in shape and hit numbers.
My conclusion is that TBS is far too aggressive for me. As a $10 unit player, if I’ve got the 6, 8 and 9 covered with full odds, for example, I’ve got $170 on the board. A quick 7 out without hitting any of the numbers results in a big loss ( and this has happened a few times now in real play). The risk-reward scenario is similar to placing $25/30 across all the numbers. Placing the numbers across, however, will usually result in you hitting one or two of them anyway, but you still have to hit 6 before you can go anywhere.
When I first took the GTC course, Dom told me not to press until I had won enough to justify doing so, based on risk tolerance. That still holds true for the smart player, I think. Going forward, I’m going to play a 3 number point and come bet game, but I’m not going to start TBS until I’ve hit 4 numbers. Yes, that means by placing 3 numbers, I’ll have to hit 4 of them before spreading out. If I’m feeling conservative, which I often do, I’ll establish the point and one come bet and get 3 hits before beginning TBS. I know the response I’m going to get: Something like, you’ll probably never make any money because it will take you too long into the roll to get things going. And, you can still establish two or three numbers and 7 out. Bottom line is that if I don’t get past 10 rolls, I’m not going anywhere with any method, but at least I’ll have a chance of keeping a few bucks in the rack rather than using all my winnings to spread out. It is really demoralizing when you get three hits and establish 5 numbers and then 7 out. You’ve shot a lot of decent dice only to break even or be a little down ( aggravatingly 2’s, 3’s and 12’s do show against come bets as does the occasional 11 ). Those last couple of numbers you put out there could potentially represent some consolation walk away money.
Again, this isn’t critical of TBS. TBS works if you don’t have too many short rolls before catching a wave. The point I’m trying to make is that my risk tolerance is not comfortable with it. When it’s working, it absolutely murders the house. My compromise is that I’m going to try to get up a little first on a couple of numbers and then implement the system. I figure if you start TBS when you’ve got one hit more than the number of points you began with, you can leave the table on the plus side if you seven out. Walk away with a net $70 in wins several times, and you don’t feel too bad. If you bang out a hot hand, you’re going to make money even if you started out dipping your toes.
When I feel like it, I’m going to discuss discipline, because without it, no betting method will help. Team play poses special challenges in that regard, and I’d like to share my experiences at some point. Off to an Alaska cruise. Can’t wait for the boat to head out to sea so the casino will open!
Happy rolling, and remember, I respect all of you for attempting to win at this very difficult sport. (It ain’t gamblin anymore!)
Alamo
Replies:
Posted by: Guest on July 12, 2012, 3:36 pm
Posted by: Agame on July 12, 2012, 4:53 pm
I don’t have any experience implementing TBS in live play, and only minimal experience doing it in practice. More often than not, I gave myself a 1K bankroll, and started w/ $10 units and full odds. Wiped myself clean really fast an then had to go on the defensive and dig myself out, sometimes without success.
Posted by: Stephen C on July 12, 2012, 5:09 pm
I find my starting at risk is only slightly higher than the normal point and two place bets. And I get a small Hedge on the second throw against the quick point-7.
I loves my Big Skinny.
Posted by: Timmer on July 12, 2012, 6:39 pm
I wanted to take a moment to thank you for contributing this thoughtful post on your experiences with TBS to our board.
I wrote a reply along with a few questions, only to have it disappear into the ether when previewing it… 🙄
Oh well… I’ll try writing it again later. But for now, thanks for writing this interesting post!
😎 😎 😎
Posted by: OneMoonCircles on July 13, 2012, 5:46 am
As a general rule I follow Stickman’s progression of up a unit and sometimes I take in more but sometimes less. In practice this week Goldfinger did the best with me in the middle and JBW at the bottom. JBW simply didn’t push the 10 as hard as we did and Goldfinger kept rolling it so both he and I went up faster than JBW and that was really the difference. Practice ended up substantially for all of us despite the fact I couldn’t hit my ass. I believe that this illustrates how both methods work and that there may be significant differences in income based on the individual bets made.
Basically the Goldfinger adjustment takes more hits before going up on more bets. This minimizes the risk but is still somewhat aggressive and has more profit in your rails before pressing or adding another come bet.
OMC
Posted by: Guest on July 13, 2012, 12:03 pm
Posted by: The Griz on July 13, 2012, 3:25 pm
Posted by: Dr Crapology on July 13, 2012, 9:48 pm
I hit one of the come bets. The come bets comes down. I have two bets at risk one win in the rack. I make a new come bet. Next I hit the pass line bet. Two wins in the rack. The come bet goes to the same number that was the pass line bet. Now I have a come out seven. Both come bets come down and the odds are returned. I lose one base bet net–$10.
I contlinue with the pass line bet and establish the point. Make a come bet. Then 7 out.
If my count is correct I make 8 rolls, hit two pays days and only lost one bet while winning the last come out bet.
Even with the earlier come out 7, I am ahead about 1 to 1 1/2 units.
Not bad for a short roll.
I have had so many ploppies tell me why would you come bet when if you placed the numbers you only have to hit it once not twice to make some money. They simply don’t undetstand the power of the come out roll 7/11 vrs the craps numbers.
Yes I have had three bets on the table with a 7 out and no pay days. But that is the risk we take. Alligator Rose and I have the bank roll to withstand these variances.
We win money on a regular basis ( not every time) but it is easy and profitable for us.
Just my $.02 worth.
Doc
Posted by: Goldfinger on July 14, 2012, 7:29 pm
I love your post. Here in Colo we don’t place the 4 and 10 because that is a bad bet, we don’t buy the 4 and 10 because the vig is paid up front,that is a bad bet. If we place the 5 and 9 the HA eats up most if not all of our advantage. The only way onto those numbers is with a come bet, then it is a great bet. most of our casino’s offer 10 times odds, which makes it even better.
We let TBS be our RNS [random number selecter]. If you have a hot number for the day or a signature number TBS will find it. We don’t care if our numbers are the outside ones. Most of us use the hardway set. We like extended rolls rather than selective numbers so when we are set up with
our come bets, let the on and off parade begin.
Wednesday afternoon practice at JBW’s house I had an extended roll of 35 . Our second come bet went to the ten. I repeated it right away. It came down and a few rolls later we got back on it. Then it was off and on till the roll ended. WIthout TBS we would have been well into the roll before we moved out to it.
As it was both OMC and I were at table max on the 10. A previous post referred to a 53 hand with 12 fives in it,The shooter never bets the 5 so no money made on 12 rolls. The Big Skinny would have found that number early and often. ten hits on the five would make any roll a monster.
We play TBS with our initial three bets and don’t move to four until we get two hits. Quite often in the process of replacing our first come bet we get our second hit and then it is just as tho we were playing it straight up. We have had some long rolls where we never got more then 4 numbers established.
Since JBW and I have been using TBS our profits have increased quite a bit, although we have had a few monsters along the way, the quick point outs don’t hurt so bad anymore. One of these days we will be confronted with the triple hits and what to do with them. Thanks Skinny.
GOLDFINGER
Posted by: Jumbotron Ron on July 15, 2012, 12:44 am
Posted by: JohnB on September 30, 2012, 9:34 pm
Posted by: Timmer on October 1, 2012, 3:42 am
"JohnB" wrote: Does anyone every leave there come bet up (like you can do with a Place bet) after a win on the come bet?
Hello JohnB,
If I understand your question correctly, it asks about one of the fundamental differences between place bets and come bets.
Unlike a place bet, which when hit is paid and stays in play, a come bet "falls," or is taken down and out of play after it is hit and paid.
When hit, the dealer will pay the winnings owed and return the come bet (along with the odds, if any) to the player. In this case, the player does not have the option of leaving the come bet "on" or in play. The come betting process simply starts over.
However, there is an exception to this rule which allows a come bet to remain "up."
The exception is when a player has an additional (unresolved) come bet pending (the amount you put in the "come" area on the layout) that is waiting to resolve to the next box number thrown by the shooter. In this case, should an existing (resolved) come bet be hit, it creates a unique come betting situation often referred to as "off and on."
In an "off and on" situation, the dealer will pay the winnings owed on the come bet, but because there is the additional (unresolved) come bet pending, the paid come bet will not "fall" but will remain in play or in your words, be left "up."
I hope this helped answer you question.
😎 😎 😎
Posted by: Stephen C on October 1, 2012, 11:30 am
Oh, and should a come bet move to a number you previously Placed, either use it for the Odds or leave it as is for an additional little umph.
Posted by: Guest on October 6, 2012, 10:58 pm
Posted by: JohnB on October 7, 2012, 10:33 pm
"Timmer" wrote: [quote="JohnB"] Does anyone every leave there come bet up (like you can do with a Place bet) after a win on the come bet?
Where I play you can leave the come bet up or "on" just like a place bet with a win it does not have to "fall". You dont have to take it down and can increase your contract bet and/or odds. Now how does that effect the choice of which way to bet (come or place bets). The orginal contract bet (come)is not protected if a seven occurs on the come out as the place bet is. This is the only difference that I can see between the come and place bets at the casino I frequent. I wish someone would comment on this instead of all the congras for doing this and that with no explaintaion on what sets and positions they use as they become winners.
Hello JohnB,
If I understand your question correctly, it asks about one of the fundamental differences between place bets and come bets.
Unlike a place bet, which when hit is paid and stays in play, a come bet "falls," or is taken down and out of play after it is hit and paid.
When hit, the dealer will pay the winnings owed and return the come bet (along with the odds, if any) to the player. In this case, the player does not have the option of leaving the come bet "on" or in play. The come betting process simply starts over.
However, there is an exception to this rule which allows a come bet to remain "up."
The exception is when a player has an additional (unresolved) come bet pending (the amount you put in the "come" area on the layout) that is waiting to resolve to the next box number thrown by the shooter. In this case, should an existing (resolved) come bet be hit, it creates a unique come betting situation often referred to as "off and on."
In an "off and on" situation, the dealer will pay the winnings owed on the come bet, but because there is the additional (unresolved) come bet pending, the paid come bet will not "fall" but will remain in play or in your words, be left "up."
I hope this helped answer you question.
😎 😎 😎
