The article reinforces the need for making money on your average or slightly above average hands.

The article proves the point that even a very proficient shooter should not spread too much, nor should he press early in hopes of the monster showing up. Most of your rolls will be under 20. There is an 8.77% chance that you will roll at least 20 rolls.

When you look at the data, you see that the median hand for that proficient shooter is 7.30. His average hand will be 9.05 rolls. This validates what I have seen in my game. Most of my rolls are probably a median of 8, with the average hand length of 12.

The median hand for a random shooter will be 6.96 with an average of 8.53 rolls per hand. The probability of at least a 20 roll hand for the Random Roller is 7.28%. The probability for the Random roller to have a 20 roll hand is 1.5% a full percentage point lower than the good controlled shooter.

That 1.5% edge is huge over time.

This example proves why proper betting with low house edge bets is so important.

For a Controlled Shooter that edge will show itself over the long run.

NFF

Couldn’t have said it better NFF.

I did a post a while back called Roll advantage spreadsheet that allows me to track percentage wise the information Dan refers to. What I called roll SRR should have been called average roll length.

Granted the sheet didn’t have many rolls recorded; it does show the percentages for different roll length categories that I had thrown with 45% in the 9 to 24 throw category.

Skinny wrote in one of his posts [paraphrased] that all advantage players will make almost all of their profit with rolls in the teens and of course he threw in the math.

Ron,

All of us have spent many hours at the tables and have observed many GTC type shooters and many random type shooters. Our observations may not always be scientific, but we probably have beliefs from these observations.

Yes, I have seen GTC type shooters have bad, good, and great hands. I have also seen probable random rollers have bad, good and great hands.

I expect the betting to be better with GTC type players, but this is not always true. The average player seems to be less structured in their betting habits and dip into their pockets for more cash often.

[list=circle]Some observations that throw me for a loss are:
[*]When GTC type players seem to toss more Point Sevens[/*][*]True gambler types making a killing with bad bets.[/*][*]Random shooters having very good hands(are they really random shooters?)[/*][*]GTC types having miserable hands(are they really GTC)[/*][/list]

I have, at times, been in each of the above categories(except making a killing on bad bets)

CIII,

I have been in all of those situations. When a shooter like Stick, B-Man, and my buddy Fredo are on and really consistently banging out those hardways, I don’t believe the hardway and hop bets are bad bets if done right. I do believe high edge bets on random rollers, just because a guy sets the hardways, and off strictly off reputation are bad bets. A majority of the time tried and true low edge is the way to go, but when those gifted shooters start killing the hardways I have always believed it is in my advantage to take advantage.

CIII I agree with you on every point. Big Ron, I like the way you think and you expressed it well in writing.

dbr (uncle brucey)

Uncle Bruce, you in Vegas yet?

this is some really good reading… and we use the stuff every day in our smart craps, however i do
have some questions.

There are a lot of variables that cant be taken into consideration.

1….. it does not considered impeded dice… a throw that was altered by hands or chips
2…..it does not account for tub hands where a pass line winner may not be counted
because it did not hit the back wall. or a 7 out may not be counted because it
did not hit the back wall

3……It does not take into consideration times of exceptional
controll..

I have seen Jerry throw and Dom and a couple of others… most of us are novices in
comparison , however my records indicate i throw give or take 780 hands a year.
That would give me 2.3 50 rolls and 11.55 rolls over 3 years. that is less than half of what i have
and many times at the table i am simply terrible.. other times pretty decent. I
have no idea how many hands i tossed over the previous 30 years, but it was thousands
and i can recall 1 really good hand..

My point is not to question the data, but i think measuring human potential , particularly
humans with a high degree of training is questionable at best. I think dice control is
an example of that, you have no idea what is possible, at any given moment.

I could well be the most conservative human being on earth, but if you want to bet me that
i will have no more than 2.3 50 rolls or 11.55 40 hands over the next 3 years.
i will take that bet.

gman

Ron,

I agree with your betting on selected advantage shooters.

The article that you referred to to begin this discussion is looking at only one aspect of advantage play, long rolls.

There are so many different aspects to the game that we frequently get hung up on only one part of the total game.

[list=square]For example:[*]Sevens to Roll Ratio[/*][*]Number of Box numbers tossed.[/*][*]Number of Horn(garbage numbers) tossed.[/*][*]Repeating numbers[/*][*]Hardways tossed[/*][*]Consistency[/*][/list]

NFF explained it well that shorter money makers is the success for long term success. When the monster happens, it is paradise.

Dice control only gives us a slight edge over the random roller. One way to increase your earning potential is to have four GTC shooters in the prime spots. I have played many times when at least two shooters are on fire. Paradise again when all four are hot. Team play and practice is vital for 401G growth.

There is more than one way to skin a cat.

Ron,

Even though the hand lengths seem disappointing in the search for "dice control" (I think of it more as dice influencing) I think the secret is in the numbers rolled within the hand. I suspect that a dice controller will roll more 5, 6, 8, and 9’s than a random roller. I also would expect more points within the hand from a controller. Perhaps Dan can give us more information along this line.

As usual we must bet into our advantage and each of us has a slightly different advantage. Dice influencing does work and even though it takes a lot of practice and dedication it is worth it. I am a good example of making it work as I was the worst roller ever and most of the time (like 95%) I just passed the dice. Now, I can hardly wait to get the dice.

My last thought along this discussion is that your emotions have a major effect on ones results. Before my wonderful wife Anne was diagnosed with cancer I was making a profit regularly. After her diagnosis and eventual death I went straight into the crapper. Now, nearly 3 years after the diagnosis and 2 1/2 years after her death I am finally back to making a profit.

Practicing craps helped me to have something to focus on and just not Anne’s passing. She loved to go to the casinos and is with me at practice and sometimes in the casino but not so over whelming now.

OneMoonCircles

Your right about that, it’s very hard to focus when your depressed. I’m glad to see you are starting to pull out of the grieving process. Good luck OMC.

NF% said it correctly. Three things you must have and do if you are to make money at craps

1. Learn our controlled throw
2. Calculate if you have an edge
3. Bet into that edge.

#3 is the key. And don’t forget that you MUST bet only 25 percent or less of your spread on a random roller if you want to bet on them!

Dominator

Sounds like a plan!